本文選題：城市化 + 南昌市�。� 參考：《南昌大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的快速發(fā)展和工業(yè)化水平的提高，農(nóng)村人口大規(guī)模向城市轉(zhuǎn)移，工業(yè)化規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大，城市面積急劇膨脹。城市降水帶來的問題在城市化快速發(fā)展的背景下變得日益突出，隨之而來的城市內(nèi)澇問題發(fā)生的可能性以及它帶來的損失正變得越來越大。同時(shí)，城市化對(duì)城市水文效應(yīng)的影響日益受到人們的關(guān)注。本文利用南昌市城區(qū)和郊區(qū)4個(gè)站點(diǎn)的降水資料以及相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒的資料，分析了南昌市城、郊50年降水的變化特征，通過南昌市城、郊降水對(duì)比，研究了城市化發(fā)展對(duì)南昌市降水的作用，同時(shí)，，根據(jù)南昌市城區(qū)50多年的降水時(shí)間序列，對(duì)城區(qū)未來幾年的降水進(jìn)行了預(yù)測，在此基礎(chǔ)上，得到了不同狀態(tài)降水出現(xiàn)的重現(xiàn)期大小。論文主要結(jié)論如下： （1）南昌市城市化進(jìn)程大體可分為三個(gè)階段：第一階段是1949-1978年（起步徘徊階段），第二階段是1978年至2000年（穩(wěn)定發(fā)展階段），第三階段是進(jìn)入新世紀(jì)至今（快速發(fā)展階段）。 （2）相比郊區(qū)，城區(qū)年降水量與年降水天數(shù)都有一定程度的增加，增加速度有變快的趨勢。尤其是最近30年來，城區(qū)年降水天數(shù)大部分年份都多于郊區(qū)。從10年時(shí)段比較城郊降水量和降水天數(shù)發(fā)現(xiàn)，城區(qū)無論是降水量還是降水天數(shù)都呈現(xiàn)出增加幅度大于郊區(qū)或者減少幅度小于郊區(qū)的趨勢。 近50年來，南昌市區(qū)平均降水量增速為59.96mm/10年，郊區(qū)平均降水量增速為41.21mm/10年，城市化對(duì)南昌城區(qū)降水量增加的貢獻(xiàn)率為31.3%。南昌市區(qū)平均降水天數(shù)減少率為-1.63天/10年，郊區(qū)平均降水天數(shù)減少率為-5.38天/10年，城市化對(duì)南昌城區(qū)降水天數(shù)增加的貢獻(xiàn)率為69.7%。 （3）根據(jù)馬爾可夫鏈，結(jié)合模糊集理論，分別對(duì)南昌城區(qū)2013年、2014年降水量進(jìn)行預(yù)測，得到2013年降水量狀態(tài)值為i=3（正常年），降水量預(yù)測值為1495.5mm，2014年降水量狀態(tài)值為i=（5雨澇年），降水量預(yù)測值為1886.3mm。南昌城區(qū)年降水量處于干旱、偏旱、正常、偏澇、雨澇狀態(tài)的重現(xiàn)期分別為5.49年、6.56年、2.41年、17.69年、5.15年，處于正常年的可能性最大，偏澇年出現(xiàn)的機(jī)會(huì)則是最小。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and society and the improvement of industrialization level, the rural population has been transferred to the city on a large scale, and the scale of industrialization has been continuously expanded, and the urban area has expanded rapidly. The problems caused by urban precipitation are becoming more and more prominent under the background of rapid development of urbanization. The possibility of urban waterlogging and the loss caused by it are becoming more and more serious. At the same time, people pay more and more attention to the influence of urbanization on urban hydrological effect. Based on the precipitation data of four stations in Nanchang city and suburb and the data of relevant statistical yearbooks, this paper analyzes the variation characteristics of precipitation in Nanchang city and suburb over the past 50 years, and compares the precipitation between Nanchang city and suburb. In this paper, the effect of urbanization on precipitation in Nanchang city is studied. Based on the precipitation time series of more than 50 years in Nanchang city, the precipitation in the next few years is predicted. The recurrence period of precipitation in different states is obtained. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the process of urbanization in Nanchang can be divided into three stages: the first stage is 1949-1978 (starting and wandering stage), the second stage is 1978-2000 (stable development stage), the third stage is the third stage. Is entering the new century until now (rapid development stage). (2) compared to the suburbs, The annual precipitation and the number of days of annual precipitation in urban area are increased to some extent, and the increasing speed tends to be faster. Especially in the last 30 years, the number of days of annual precipitation in urban areas is more than that in suburbs. From the comparison of the precipitation and the number of days in the suburb in 10 years, it is found that the increase of precipitation and the number of days of precipitation in the urban area are larger than those in the suburb or the decrease is smaller than that in the suburb. In the past 50 years, the average precipitation growth rate of Nanchang urban area is 10 years 59.96mm/, the average precipitation growth rate of suburb is 41.21mm/ 10 years, and the contribution rate of urbanization to the increase of precipitation in Nanchang urban area is 31.3%. The reduction rate of average precipitation days in Nanchang urban area is -1.63 days / 10 years, and that in suburbs is -5.38 days / 10 years. The contribution rate of urbanization to the increase of precipitation days in Nanchang urban area is 69.7%. (3) according to Markov chain and fuzzy set theory, The precipitation of Nanchang urban area in 2013 and 2014 was forecasted, and the precipitation state value of 2013 was 3 (normal year), the forecast value of precipitation was 1495.5 mm, the precipitation state value of 2014 was I = (5 rain and waterlogging year), the forecast value of precipitation was 1886.3 mm. The recurrence periods of annual precipitation in Nanchang are 5.49 years, 6.56 years, 2.41 years, 17.69 years and 5.15 years respectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV125

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