本文關鍵詞：國際石油價格波動實證研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

國際石油價格波動實證研究 Abstract Since internationaloil has a risentimesince 2003，the priceexperiencedlongest 1986．The oil soaredfromtheinitial25．30abarreltoabout150abarrelwhich price hasbeenrisenmorethanfourtimes withinfive thefinancialcrisis years．But in 2008causedadramaticdeclineinoil oil fellbelow happened price，theprice 40， whichhas decreased70 inlessthanhalfofa thefinancialcrisis percent year．After oil to broke100abarrelin2011． partlysolved，theprice increase，which began up the debt oil to However，influencedby crisis，the run Europe’S pricebegan violently． Asthesecond oil oil hasa on largestconsumingcountry,theprice significantimpact China’Seconomic andnational inorderto performance strategicsecurity，therefore makethe effectiverecommendationsand to withtherisk policy programscope the ofoil ofthecharacteristicsofoil producedby change price，thestudy price，，the factors theoil andthe ofoil is affectingprice predictionpriceveryimportant． of thebasis theresearchesonoil athomeand Firstly,on reviewing price abroad， wemadea onthefactors theoil qualitativeanalysis affectingprice,theanalyze showedthatoilhasthedualattributesofthe andfinancialandtheoil commodity wasnot affectedtheactualdemandand ofoilbutalsoaffected price only by supply theUSD rate，the ofoilfuturesandotherfinancial by exchange price totheevolutionoftheattributesofoilandthe characteristics variables．According ofthemovementoftheoil dividedthemovementoftheoil price，we price into1980-2002and2003-2010two weset asimultaneous phases，thenup equation modelfortheoil Oilthefirst anduseditto the oil price phase predictequilibrium onthesecond foundthattheactualoil onthesecondwas price phase，we price phase thanthe oil therewasa oil price higher equilibriumprice，SO superequilibrium existed．Onthis set aVARmodelandhada researchon basis，we up quantitative the oil ofoil

  本文關鍵詞：國際石油價格波動實證研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。