本研究采用對(duì)數(shù)轉(zhuǎn)換模型和向量誤差修正模型,研究了過(guò)去幾十年對(duì)嚴(yán)重依賴石油資源的新興國(guó)家--南蘇丹,國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）與石油價(jià)格和通貨膨脹的影響,因?yàn)槭蛢r(jià)格變化可以用百分比的形式表示,這與國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）和通貨膨脹（INF）之間的關(guān)系可以形成協(xié)整變量的檢驗(yàn)。本研究根據(jù)南蘇丹和國(guó)際組織（如世界銀行和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織）提供的數(shù)據(jù)的2005-2019年的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)。本文通過(guò)單位根檢驗(yàn)的擴(kuò)展（ADF）的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,在其他變量都固定不變的情況下,除了通貨膨脹（INF）和GDP外,利率和匯率的上升對(duì)任何一個(gè)GDP國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)績(jī)效都有負(fù)面影響,表明通貨膨脹是南蘇丹一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象,因此建議南蘇丹應(yīng)采取強(qiáng)有力的財(cái)政政策,以調(diào)節(jié)通貨膨脹和高利率來(lái)改善本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì),以更好滿足市場(chǎng)需求和有限的過(guò)剩貨幣供應(yīng)。研究報(bào)告建議,農(nóng)業(yè)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施發(fā)展是可持續(xù)發(fā)展的其他因素,以消除從農(nóng)村到城市和城市以外地區(qū)的饑餓和糧食安全。盡管南蘇丹擁有石油和其他資源,但由于缺乏透明度,政府官員或礦業(yè)公司以及環(huán)境方面的腐敗,無(wú)論其在該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力如何,南蘇丹仍然是一個(gè)貧窮國(guó)家,如石油開(kāi)采公司造成的污染和荷蘭疾病,尤其... 

【文章來(lái)源】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)江西省

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：58 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
ACKNOWLEGEMENT
ABSTRACT
摘要
LISTS OF ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER ONE
    1.1 Background and significance of the Study
    1.2 Statement and problem of the study
    1.3 Research Question and study hypothesis
    1.4 Objectives and limitations of the study
    1.5 The thesis organization
    1.6 The overviews of south Sudan’s economy
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Determinate of economic growth and its political and social factors
    2.3 Empirical evidences reviews oil price on economic growth
    2.4 The Economics growth and models theories
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
    3.1 Theoretical frame work
    3.2 Data analysis
    3.3 The model analysis
    3.4 models specifications
    3.5 variables descriptions
    3.6 co. integration’s test
CHAPTER FOUR RESESARCH DATA ANALYSIS RESULTS
CHAPTER FIVE Recommendations and Conclusions
    5.1 Conclusions
    5.2 Recommendation and policy Implications
    5.3 Contribution and consequences of oil high prices on the economy
    5.4 AREA FOR FURTHER STUDIES
    5.5 Discussion and further suggestions
References



本文編號(hào)：3281566