【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展,天然氣資源的需求越來越大,僅僅依靠常規(guī)天然氣已經(jīng)跟不上經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的腳步,越來越多的國家把目光投向致密氣。但是致密氣的特點(diǎn)不同于常規(guī)天然氣,給開采和利用帶來了很多難題。針對現(xiàn)場預(yù)測致密氣層壓裂井產(chǎn)能過程中出現(xiàn)的困難和不足,本文對有關(guān)致密氣層壓裂井產(chǎn)能的預(yù)測方法進(jìn)行了相關(guān)研究�；趯χ旅軞獠氐牡刭|(zhì)特征和增產(chǎn)措施的研究,建立了致密氣層壓裂井產(chǎn)能影響因素的樣本集。這主要是根據(jù)篩選原則對因素的影響程度進(jìn)行定性和定量分析。采取數(shù)值模擬方式定性分析,減小了定量分析的復(fù)雜度。定量分析采取正交試驗(yàn)和灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析的方法,得到各個(gè)因素的具體影響程度�；谶@個(gè)樣本集,完善預(yù)測致密氣層壓裂井產(chǎn)能的模型。這里采取BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、支持向量機(jī)方法預(yù)測致密氣層壓裂井的產(chǎn)能,并且與解析公式結(jié)果對比。而投產(chǎn)后壓裂氣井的產(chǎn)量變化規(guī)律采取這兩種方法和GM(1,1)模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測。編制致密氣層壓裂井產(chǎn)能預(yù)測軟件,并以某氣藏的氣井預(yù)測結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性。通過對某氣藏的氣井進(jìn)行分析發(fā)現(xiàn),預(yù)測致密氣層壓裂井產(chǎn)能時(shí),數(shù)學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)方法的準(zhǔn)確率要好于解析公式法,其中支持向量機(jī)方法最高。預(yù)測投產(chǎn)后的壓裂氣井的產(chǎn)量變化規(guī)律時(shí),支持向量機(jī)方法的準(zhǔn)確率也是最高。支持向量機(jī)方法不需要大量樣本數(shù)據(jù),卻有較好的預(yù)測效果。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the demand for natural gas resources is increasing, only relying on conventional natural gas has been unable to keep up with the pace of economic development, more and more countries are looking to dense gas. However, the characteristics of dense gas are different from conventional natural gas, which brings many problems to exploitation and utilization. In view of the difficulties and shortcomings in predicting the productivity of tight gas reservoir fracturing wells in the field, this paper makes a related study on the prediction methods of the production capacity of tight gas reservoir fracturing wells. Based on the study of geological characteristics and stimulation measures of tight gas reservoirs, a sample set of factors affecting productivity of fracturing wells in tight gas reservoirs is established. This is mainly based on the screening principle of the impact of factors qualitative and quantitative analysis. The complexity of quantitative analysis is reduced by numerical simulation. The quantitative analysis adopts the method of orthogonal test and grey correlation analysis to obtain the specific influence degree of each factor. Based on this sample set, the model for predicting the productivity of tight gas reservoir fracturing wells is improved. In this paper, BP neural network and support vector machine are used to predict the productivity of tight gas reservoir fracturing wells, and the results are compared with the analytical formula. These two methods and GM (1 ~ 1) model are used to predict the production variation of fractured gas wells after putting into production. The productivity prediction software of tight gas reservoir fracturing well is compiled and the accuracy of gas well prediction result of a gas reservoir is given. Through the analysis of a gas well in a gas reservoir, it is found that the accuracy of mathematical statistical method is better than that of analytical formula method when predicting the productivity of fractured wells in tight gas reservoirs, among which the support vector machine method is the highest. The accuracy of SVM method is also the highest when predicting the rule of production variation of fracturing gas wells after putting into production. Support vector machine method does not need a lot of sample data, but it has good prediction effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國石油大學(xué)(華東)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TE328

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