【摘要】：基于可靠性的設(shè)計(jì)方法針對(duì)管道實(shí)際失效形式,對(duì)不同極限狀態(tài)的荷載和抗力等不確定因素進(jìn)行定量分析,確保管道安全可靠。全生命周期費(fèi)用的比選可權(quán)衡管道耗材、施工、運(yùn)行維護(hù)及失效后果,在保證安全的前提下,實(shí)現(xiàn)管道經(jīng)濟(jì)性最優(yōu)。針對(duì)管徑273 mm的某天然氣管道,首次采用基于可靠性的設(shè)計(jì)方法進(jìn)行鋼管壁厚設(shè)計(jì)。利用調(diào)研得到的管道材料、施工及運(yùn)維等不確定參數(shù),計(jì)算目標(biāo)可靠度下的臨界壁厚;根據(jù)規(guī)格壁厚的規(guī)定,分別對(duì)5.2 mm、5.6 mm、6.4 mm及7.1 mm壁厚方案的全生命周期費(fèi)用進(jìn)行定量計(jì)算分析。結(jié)果顯示:5.2 mm方案的建設(shè)期和運(yùn)營(yíng)期費(fèi)用最低,但失效概率大導(dǎo)致其潛在損失費(fèi)用明顯高于其他方案;6.4 mm方案的全生命周期費(fèi)用最低,30年總費(fèi)用比5.2 mm方案低0.51%�；诠艿腊踩煽啃院徒�(jīng)濟(jì)適用性的綜合考慮,推薦采用壁厚6.4 mm方案。
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the safety and reliability of pipelines, the reliability based design method is used to quantitatively analyze the uncertain factors such as load and resistance in different limit states. The cost comparison of the whole life cycle can balance the pipeline consumables, construction, operation and maintenance and failure consequences, and realize the economic optimization of pipeline under the premise of ensuring safety. For a natural gas pipeline with a diameter of 273 mm, the design method based on reliability is used for the design of steel pipe wall thickness for the first time. The critical wall thickness under the reliability of the target is calculated by using the uncertain parameters of pipeline material, construction and operation and maintenance. According to the specification of wall thickness, the whole life cycle cost of 5.2 mm,5.6 mm,6.4 mm and 7.1 mm wall thickness schemes were calculated and analyzed respectively. The results show that the cost of 5.2 mm scheme is the lowest in the construction and operation periods, but the potential loss cost of 5.2 mm scheme is higher than that of other schemes due to the large failure probability. 6.4 the whole life cycle cost of mm scheme was the lowest, and the total cost of 30 years was 0.51% lower than that of 5.2 mm scheme. Based on the comprehensive consideration of pipeline safety, reliability and economic applicability, a 6. 4 mm scheme with wall thickness is recommended.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)石油管道局工程有限公司設(shè)計(jì)分公司;
【基金】：中國(guó)石油天然氣股份有限公司科學(xué)研究與技術(shù)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目“第三代大輸量天然氣管道工程關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究”,2012E-2801-01
【分類號(hào)】：TE973.1

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1 張立松;閆相禎;田中蘭;楊恒林;楊秀娟;;基于可靠性方法的儲(chǔ)層鉆井坍塌壓力分析[J];石油學(xué)報(bào);2012年03期

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本文編號(hào)：2377411