【摘要】：近年來,中國政府高度重視石油和天然氣管道的運輸,到2012年中國管道的總里程快速發(fā)展已經(jīng)達(dá)到了7.1萬千米。管道運輸已成為陸上油氣運輸?shù)闹饕绞�。隨著西氣東輸二線天然氣主干管道的建設(shè),以及西部石油(成品油)管道項目的運營,我國研究范圍內(nèi)的石油和天然氣管網(wǎng)已迅速擴大。然而,現(xiàn)有管道風(fēng)險依舊存在,不排除一些安全隱患的問題,相應(yīng)的監(jiān)管體制和法律法規(guī)體系不完善。壽光-東營天然氣支干線工程位于山東省濰坊市和東營市建設(shè)單位為山東魯潤天然氣有限公。該工程項目預(yù)計于2015年1月輸氣使用,使用后輸氣量達(dá)10.03億立方。天然氣管線風(fēng)險管理是一項重要的任務(wù),其一定要在項目的進(jìn)行之前有一個整體的評價,以便于進(jìn)行項目的計劃、決策與風(fēng)險控制。有效的風(fēng)險評估能夠促進(jìn)項目承建單位的各類資源合理配置,規(guī)避投資風(fēng)險,充分發(fā)揮投資效益最大化。本文采用列舉法、風(fēng)險因素預(yù)先分析法、事件樹分析等方法,對壽光—東營天然氣支干線工程實施過程中的風(fēng)險管理進(jìn)行了研究,在對相關(guān)風(fēng)險管理理論進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,系統(tǒng)分析了實施項目的風(fēng)險識別、評估、應(yīng)對和監(jiān)控,最后對開發(fā)項目風(fēng)險管理進(jìn)行評價。通過本文的研究,旨在找出項目實施中的風(fēng)險并進(jìn)行合理管控,進(jìn)而確保項目的順利實施。本文首先系統(tǒng)論述了管道項目風(fēng)險管理的基本的理論體系與依據(jù),并對壽光-東營天然氣工程建設(shè)項目進(jìn)行了一定的分析。之后具體開展了壽光-東營天然氣工程建設(shè)項目的風(fēng)險識別、風(fēng)險評價,從內(nèi)部風(fēng)險、外部風(fēng)險對項目作出了具體的評估,最后提出了具體的風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施。風(fēng)險在壽光-東營天然氣管道工程建設(shè)中從決策階段到投產(chǎn)始終存在,通過對該項目的風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果中可以看出,此項目的總體風(fēng)險級別是高;在工程項目的六大類風(fēng)險當(dāng)中,從高到低進(jìn)行依次排序建設(shè)風(fēng)險最高,其次是經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險和融資風(fēng)險,再次是政策風(fēng)險,審批風(fēng)險的風(fēng)險程度一般,風(fēng)險決策風(fēng)險程度是最小的。本文在評估之后提出了工程風(fēng)險應(yīng)對具體措施,使風(fēng)險得到全過程控制,確保壽光-東營天然氣工程建設(shè)項目順利實施,達(dá)到預(yù)期效益。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the Chinese government has attached great importance to the transportation of oil and gas pipelines. By 2012, the total mileage of the pipeline in China had reached 71,000 kilometers. Pipeline transportation has become the main way of onshore oil and gas transportation. With the construction of natural gas trunk pipeline in West to East Gas Transmission Line and the operation of West China Petroleum (refined Oil) pipeline project, the oil and gas pipeline network in our country has been expanded rapidly. However, the existing pipeline risks still exist, not excluding some hidden safety problems, the corresponding regulatory system and laws and regulations system is not perfect. Shouguang-Dongying natural gas branch project is located in Weifang City and Dongying City Shandong Province construction unit for Shandong Lurun Natural Gas Co. The project is expected to be used in January 2015, after the use of 1.003 billion cubic meters of gas. Risk management of natural gas pipeline is an important task. It must have an overall evaluation before the project is carried out, so as to facilitate the planning, decision making and risk control of the project. Effective risk assessment can promote the rational allocation of all kinds of resources, avoid investment risk and maximize investment benefit. In this paper, the risk management in the implementation of Shouguang-Dongying Natural Gas Branch Project is studied by the methods of enumeration, pre-analysis of risk factors and event tree analysis, and based on the analysis of relevant risk management theory, The risk identification, evaluation, response and monitoring of the implementation project are systematically analyzed. Finally, the risk management of the development project is evaluated. Through the research of this paper, the aim is to find out the risk in the implementation of the project and manage it reasonably, so as to ensure the smooth implementation of the project. In this paper, the basic theory system and basis of pipeline project risk management are systematically discussed, and the construction project of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas project is analyzed. Then the risk identification and risk evaluation of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas construction project are carried out. The concrete assessment of the project is made from the internal risk and external risk. Finally, the concrete risk countermeasures are put forward. The risk always exists in the construction of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas pipeline project from the decision-making stage to the commissioning. The overall risk level of the project is high through the risk evaluation results of the project. Among the six kinds of risks, the construction risk is the highest, the economic risk and financing risk is the next, the policy risk is the second, the risk degree of the examination and approval risk is general, and the risk degree of risk decision is the smallest. This paper puts forward the concrete measures to deal with the project risk after evaluation, so that the risk can be controlled in the whole process to ensure the smooth implementation of the construction project of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas project and achieve the expected benefit.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TE88

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 ;西氣東輸二線輪吐支干線投產(chǎn)運行[J];石油工程建設(shè);2012年06期

2 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線輪吐支干線投產(chǎn)運行[J];煤氣與熱力;2013年01期

3 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線平泰支干線平薛段建成投產(chǎn)[J];煤氣與熱力;2012年08期

4 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線上海支干線一標(biāo)段主體完工[J];煤氣與熱力;2011年05期

5 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線南寧支干線京廣鐵路穿越工程竣工[J];煤氣與熱力;2012年07期

6 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線廣南支干線第一標(biāo)段打火開焊[J];煤氣與熱力;2011年12期

7 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線南昌—上海支干線撫河盾構(gòu)工程貫通[J];煤氣與熱力;2012年09期

8 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線湘潭支干線建成投產(chǎn)[J];煤氣與熱力;2011年09期

9 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線廣南支干線盾構(gòu)工程如期貫通[J];煤氣與熱力;2012年12期

10 本刊通訊員;;西氣東輸二線廣南支干線全線貫通[J];煤氣與熱力;2013年02期

相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前10條

1 記者 劉爽;西二線支干線建設(shè)駛?cè)肟燔嚨繹N];中國石油報;2011年

2 洪偉　趙靜;二公司南昌～上海支干線七標(biāo)段最長隧道穿越成功[N];石油管道報;2011年

3 記者 蔣萬全;西二線輪南支干線打火開焊[N];中國石油報;2011年

4 特約記者 才永欣;西二線東段召開南昌~上海支干線專題會議[N];石油管道報;2010年

5 記者 林培軍　特約記者 張強 郭志英;西二線南寧支干線開工[N];石油管道報;2011年

6 徐江;孫全軍到南昌——上海支干線現(xiàn)場督導(dǎo)慰問[N];石油管道報;2011年

7 李兵;建設(shè)公司南昌～上海支干線頂管隧道貫通13條[N];石油管道報;2011年

8 本報記者 杜洪武;“數(shù)”說廣南支干線[N];石油管道報;2011年

9 記者 杜洪武;西二線廣南支干線正式投產(chǎn)[N];石油管道報;2012年

10 潘盼;《西二線6條支干線安全設(shè)施設(shè)計專篇》通過審查[N];石油管道報;2011年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 薛愛英;壽光—東營天然氣支干線工程項目的風(fēng)險管理研究[D];中國海洋大學(xué);2015年

，

本文編號：2298495