【摘要】：為實(shí)現(xiàn)能源供給多元化和國(guó)內(nèi)部分地區(qū)供氣調(diào)峰,越來(lái)越多的LNG接收站在沿海地區(qū)建設(shè)起來(lái)。由于LNG具有易燃、易爆、易揮發(fā)等特性,國(guó)內(nèi)外LNG儲(chǔ)罐、LNG船等泄漏、爆炸事故頻繁發(fā)生,如何保證LNG接收站安全運(yùn)行是擺在我們面前的一個(gè)重要課題。 首先,通過(guò)對(duì)LNG接收站工藝流程的分析,按功能將其分為五大區(qū)塊,分別為碼頭接卸區(qū)、LNG儲(chǔ)罐區(qū)、BOG處理區(qū)、儀器儀表控制區(qū)、氣化外輸計(jì)量區(qū),并建立各區(qū)塊故障樹。在故障樹辨識(shí)的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)各區(qū)塊特點(diǎn)分析其主要設(shè)備,建立適應(yīng)性較強(qiáng)的LNG接收站各區(qū)塊失效可能性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。其次,在確定失效可能性等級(jí)中,考慮到傳統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)方法中只分析失效可能性等級(jí),未涉及失效可能性的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè),存在一定片面性。因此,將物元可拓法與五元聯(lián)系數(shù)法相結(jié)合,不僅可以得到失效可能性等級(jí),同時(shí)能分析其發(fā)展趨勢(shì),結(jié)合失效后果即為對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)的量化和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè)。然后,通過(guò)對(duì)LNG接收站失效后果模式分析后,得到LNG接收站典型事故后果類型。采用PHAST軟件對(duì)典型事故后果模擬并根據(jù)火災(zāi)爆炸事故模型提出的以人員傷亡、直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和無(wú)形損失綜合分析事故后果嚴(yán)重度。最后,對(duì)江蘇LNG接收站進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果符合目前接收站運(yùn)行現(xiàn)狀。 與傳統(tǒng)方法相比,該評(píng)價(jià)方法同時(shí)考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)靜態(tài)現(xiàn)狀與動(dòng)態(tài)發(fā)展情況,能更好對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作出有效的管理。結(jié)合指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)法的簡(jiǎn)易操作性和后果模擬的真實(shí)性,評(píng)價(jià)過(guò)程可以較好的被底層技術(shù)員工掌握,評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果更加符合實(shí)際情況。
[Abstract]:In order to realize the diversification of energy supply and the peak-shaving of gas supply in parts of China, more and more LNG receiving stations are built in coastal areas. Because LNG has the characteristics of flammability, explosive and volatilization, the leakage of domestic and foreign LNG storage tanks, LNG ships and explosion accidents occur frequently, so how to ensure the safe operation of LNG receiving station is an important subject in front of us. Firstly, by analyzing the process flow of LNG receiving station, it is divided into five blocks according to its function, namely, terminal connection and unloading area, LNG storage area, BOG treatment area, instrument control area, gasification and measurement area, and the fault tree of each block is established. On the basis of fault tree identification, the main equipment of each block is analyzed according to the characteristics of each block, and an index system for evaluating the failure probability of each block of LNG receiving station is established. Secondly, in determining the failure probability level, considering that the traditional evaluation method only analyzes the failure probability level, but does not involve the development trend prediction of the failure possibility, there is a certain one-sidedness. Therefore, the combination of matter-element extension method and five-element connection number method can not only obtain the failure probability grade, but also analyze its development trend. The combination of failure consequence is the quantification of risk grade and the prediction of risk development trend. Then, by analyzing the failure consequence mode of LNG receiving station, the typical accident consequence type of LNG receiving station is obtained. Based on the model of fire and explosion accident, the severity of accident consequence is analyzed by using PHAST software to analyze the severity of accident consequence based on casualties, direct economic loss and intangible loss. Finally, the risk evaluation of Jiangsu LNG receiving station is carried out. Compared with the traditional method, the evaluation method can better manage the risk by considering both the static and dynamic development of the risk. Combined with the simple operation of index evaluation method and the authenticity of consequence simulation, the evaluation process can be better mastered by the bottom technical staff, and the evaluation results are more in line with the actual situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TE88

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