高壓輸氣管道泄漏危險性分析及后果模擬
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-12 08:42
【摘要】：高壓輸氣管道輸送天然氣是較安全、較經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)輸方式。與其它管道一樣,高壓輸氣管道運(yùn)行過程中受到多種內(nèi)外因素的干擾,從而導(dǎo)致高壓輸氣管道發(fā)生泄漏。由于天然氣易燃、易爆及毒性的特征,泄漏一旦發(fā)生并且擴(kuò)散到大氣中,遇到點(diǎn)火源便可能發(fā)生劇烈燃燒或爆炸,可能造成人員傷亡和嚴(yán)重的財產(chǎn)損失,帶來惡劣的政治及社會影響。因此,對可能發(fā)生的天然氣管道泄漏事故進(jìn)行定性、定量的危險性分析及泄漏后果模擬,以達(dá)到風(fēng)險最小、效益最大的目標(biāo)。 本文通過識別和確認(rèn)高壓輸氣管道運(yùn)行過程中涉及的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的,分析高壓輸氣管道的危險有害因素,找到與高壓輸氣管道泄漏事故緊密聯(lián)系的危險因素,為故障樹分析做鋪墊。為查找高壓輸氣管道運(yùn)行過程中導(dǎo)致泄漏的原因,采用故障樹分析法進(jìn)行定性分析,求出高壓輸氣管道泄漏故障樹的最小割集,得到能夠引起高壓輸氣管道泄漏的主要危害因素有第三方破壞、腐蝕、管材缺陷和自然災(zāi)害。由于高壓輸氣管道中的具體實驗數(shù)據(jù)及現(xiàn)場數(shù)據(jù)不足,因此采用模糊故障樹分析法對高壓輸氣管道系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行分析。以高壓輸氣管道主要風(fēng)險因素故障樹為模型,事件發(fā)生的概率采用三角模糊數(shù)表示,計算管道泄漏概率,并通過模糊重要度法對主要危險因素故障樹基本事件進(jìn)行排序。 高壓輸氣管道泄漏后泄漏量是災(zāi)害后果計算的基礎(chǔ),根據(jù)射流理論進(jìn)行分析,運(yùn)用流體力學(xué)理論,建立與實際狀況相符合泄漏模型。系統(tǒng)地研究了高壓輸氣管線泄漏小孔模型、大孔模型及管道模型,并得出三種模型的使用范圍,并確定大孔模型適用于任何泄漏孔徑。在系統(tǒng)地介紹各種泄漏擴(kuò)散模型的基礎(chǔ)上,選擇高斯煙團(tuán)模型模擬高壓輸氣管道泄漏擴(kuò)散過程,利用MATLAB對高斯煙團(tuán)模型進(jìn)行模擬,得出擴(kuò)散區(qū)域與風(fēng)速、泄漏孔徑之間的關(guān)系。 高壓輸氣管道泄漏后可能發(fā)生火災(zāi)和爆炸等危害后果。在科學(xué)選取災(zāi)害模型——噴射火火災(zāi)模型、火球火災(zāi)模型和蒸氣云爆炸模型的前提上,對高壓輸氣管道泄漏后可能發(fā)生的事故進(jìn)行噴射火熱輻射傷害計算、火球熱輻射傷害計算及蒸氣云爆炸沖擊波傷害進(jìn)行計算,得出事故的影響范圍和傷亡半徑。采用與天然氣泄漏擴(kuò)散相似的固體火焰模型對噴射火災(zāi)產(chǎn)生的熱輻射傷害進(jìn)行計算；在對火球火災(zāi)的傷害半徑的計算中,引進(jìn)積分的思想對火球燃燒過程中的傷害效應(yīng)進(jìn)行累加求解,進(jìn)一步提高了計算的精度；天然氣泄漏遇延遲點(diǎn)火源會引發(fā)蒸氣云爆炸,對其傷害程度計算的主流模型即為TNT當(dāng)量模型,通過求取燃料等效TNT質(zhì)量來確定蒸氣云爆炸的傷害范圍,計算過程簡單易懂,有利于在實際災(zāi)害分析中的推廣。
[Abstract]:High pressure gas transmission pipeline is a safe and economical way to transport natural gas. Like other pipelines, high pressure gas pipelines are disturbed by many internal and external factors during operation, which leads to leakage of high pressure gas pipelines. Because of the flammable, explosive and toxic characteristics of natural gas, once a leak occurs and spreads into the atmosphere, it may ignite or explode violently in the presence of a ignition source, which may result in casualties and serious property losses. Bring bad political and social influence. Therefore, the possible gas pipeline leakage accident is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, and the result of leakage is simulated in order to achieve the goal of minimum risk and maximum benefit. By identifying and confirming the risks involved in the operation of high pressure gas transmission pipeline, this paper systematically analyzes the dangerous and harmful factors of high pressure gas transmission pipeline, and finds out the risk factors closely related to the leakage accident of high pressure gas pipeline. Pave the way for fault tree analysis. In order to find out the cause of leakage during the operation of high pressure gas transmission pipeline, the fault tree analysis method is used to qualitatively analyze, and the minimum cut set of leakage fault tree of high pressure gas transmission pipeline is obtained. The main harmful factors which can cause leakage of high pressure gas transmission pipeline are third party damage, corrosion, pipe defect and natural disaster. Due to the shortage of experimental data and field data in high pressure gas transmission pipeline, fuzzy fault tree analysis method is used to analyze the high pressure gas transmission pipeline system. Based on the fault tree of main risk factors in high pressure gas transmission pipeline, the probability of occurrence is expressed by triangular fuzzy number, the leakage probability of pipeline is calculated, and the basic events of main risk factor fault tree are sorted by fuzzy importance method. The leakage amount after leakage in high pressure gas transmission pipeline is the basis of disaster consequence calculation. Based on the analysis of jet theory and the application of fluid dynamics theory, the leakage model is established in accordance with the actual situation. The leak pore model, large hole model and pipeline model of high pressure gas pipeline are studied systematically. The application range of the three models is obtained, and it is determined that the large pore model is suitable for any leak aperture. On the basis of systematically introducing various leakage and diffusion models, Gao Si smoke cluster model was selected to simulate the leakage and diffusion process of high pressure gas transmission pipeline, and then the Gao Si smoke cluster model was simulated by MATLAB, and the relationship between diffusion region and wind speed and leakage aperture was obtained. Fire and explosion may occur after leakage of high pressure gas transmission pipeline. Based on the scientific selection of disaster models, such as fire model of jet fire, fireball fire model and vapor cloud explosion model, the possible accidents after leakage of high pressure gas transmission pipeline are calculated. The thermal radiation damage of the fireball and the shock wave damage of the vapor cloud explosion are calculated, and the influence range and the casualty radius of the accident are obtained. The thermal radiation damage caused by jet fire is calculated by using a solid flame model similar to that of natural gas leakage and diffusion, and the damage radius of fireball fire is calculated. The concept of integral is introduced to solve the damage effect in the process of fireball combustion, and the accuracy of calculation is further improved. The mainstream model for calculating the damage degree is the TNT equivalent model. The damage range of the vapor cloud explosion is determined by obtaining the equivalent TNT mass of the fuel. The calculation process is simple and easy to understand, which is beneficial to the popularization of the actual disaster analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TE88
本文編號：2265499
[Abstract]:High pressure gas transmission pipeline is a safe and economical way to transport natural gas. Like other pipelines, high pressure gas pipelines are disturbed by many internal and external factors during operation, which leads to leakage of high pressure gas pipelines. Because of the flammable, explosive and toxic characteristics of natural gas, once a leak occurs and spreads into the atmosphere, it may ignite or explode violently in the presence of a ignition source, which may result in casualties and serious property losses. Bring bad political and social influence. Therefore, the possible gas pipeline leakage accident is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, and the result of leakage is simulated in order to achieve the goal of minimum risk and maximum benefit. By identifying and confirming the risks involved in the operation of high pressure gas transmission pipeline, this paper systematically analyzes the dangerous and harmful factors of high pressure gas transmission pipeline, and finds out the risk factors closely related to the leakage accident of high pressure gas pipeline. Pave the way for fault tree analysis. In order to find out the cause of leakage during the operation of high pressure gas transmission pipeline, the fault tree analysis method is used to qualitatively analyze, and the minimum cut set of leakage fault tree of high pressure gas transmission pipeline is obtained. The main harmful factors which can cause leakage of high pressure gas transmission pipeline are third party damage, corrosion, pipe defect and natural disaster. Due to the shortage of experimental data and field data in high pressure gas transmission pipeline, fuzzy fault tree analysis method is used to analyze the high pressure gas transmission pipeline system. Based on the fault tree of main risk factors in high pressure gas transmission pipeline, the probability of occurrence is expressed by triangular fuzzy number, the leakage probability of pipeline is calculated, and the basic events of main risk factor fault tree are sorted by fuzzy importance method. The leakage amount after leakage in high pressure gas transmission pipeline is the basis of disaster consequence calculation. Based on the analysis of jet theory and the application of fluid dynamics theory, the leakage model is established in accordance with the actual situation. The leak pore model, large hole model and pipeline model of high pressure gas pipeline are studied systematically. The application range of the three models is obtained, and it is determined that the large pore model is suitable for any leak aperture. On the basis of systematically introducing various leakage and diffusion models, Gao Si smoke cluster model was selected to simulate the leakage and diffusion process of high pressure gas transmission pipeline, and then the Gao Si smoke cluster model was simulated by MATLAB, and the relationship between diffusion region and wind speed and leakage aperture was obtained. Fire and explosion may occur after leakage of high pressure gas transmission pipeline. Based on the scientific selection of disaster models, such as fire model of jet fire, fireball fire model and vapor cloud explosion model, the possible accidents after leakage of high pressure gas transmission pipeline are calculated. The thermal radiation damage of the fireball and the shock wave damage of the vapor cloud explosion are calculated, and the influence range and the casualty radius of the accident are obtained. The thermal radiation damage caused by jet fire is calculated by using a solid flame model similar to that of natural gas leakage and diffusion, and the damage radius of fireball fire is calculated. The concept of integral is introduced to solve the damage effect in the process of fireball combustion, and the accuracy of calculation is further improved. The mainstream model for calculating the damage degree is the TNT equivalent model. The damage range of the vapor cloud explosion is determined by obtaining the equivalent TNT mass of the fuel. The calculation process is simple and easy to understand, which is beneficial to the popularization of the actual disaster analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TE88
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