發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-20 10:52

【摘要】：Logistic含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型和Yu含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型是最為簡(jiǎn)單、常用的含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型,但由于其滲流特征不明、模型優(yōu)選技術(shù)缺乏,尤其是模型中待定參數(shù)與動(dòng)態(tài)參數(shù)和靜態(tài)參數(shù)關(guān)系不確定,使得各種控水措施缺乏理論支持,并且含水率預(yù)測(cè)應(yīng)用顯得隨意。為此,在Willhite油相相滲關(guān)系式及其改進(jìn)式的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合艾富羅斯實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果,導(dǎo)出了4種改進(jìn)的含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型及其對(duì)應(yīng)水相相滲關(guān)系式。這些改進(jìn)的含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型在特定條件下,可轉(zhuǎn)化為L(zhǎng)ogistic含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型或Yu含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型,因而具備一定的廣義性。對(duì)4種含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型的含水率變化特征進(jìn)行分析認(rèn)為,雙曲式含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型適用于擬合"G"形含水率與開發(fā)時(shí)間變化規(guī)律;指數(shù)式含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型適用于擬合"S"形含水率與開發(fā)時(shí)間變化規(guī)律;調(diào)和式和復(fù)雜指數(shù)式含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型既可擬合"G"形含水率與開發(fā)時(shí)間變化規(guī)律,也可擬合"S"形含水率與開發(fā)時(shí)間變化規(guī)律。通過(guò)大慶油田薩北過(guò)渡帶開發(fā)區(qū)塊、平湖油氣田H2油藏和雁木西油田古近-新近系油藏的應(yīng)用,改進(jìn)的含水率預(yù)測(cè)模型擬合精度高、效果較好,值得其他油田借鑒。
[Abstract]:Logistic water content prediction model and Yu water content prediction model are the most simple and commonly used water content prediction models. Especially, the uncertainty of the relationship between the undetermined parameters and the dynamic and static parameters in the model makes all kinds of water control measures lack of theoretical support, and the application of water content prediction appears random. Therefore, on the basis of Willhite oil phase permeability relationship and its improved formula, four improved water content prediction models and their corresponding water phase infiltration relations are derived by combining the experimental results of Epheros. These improved water content prediction models can be transformed into Logistic water content prediction model or Yu water content prediction model under certain conditions, so they have certain generality. Based on the analysis of the variation characteristics of water content in four kinds of water cut prediction models, it is concluded that the double curve water content prediction model is suitable for fitting the "G" shape water cut and the variation law of development time. The exponential water cut prediction model is suitable for fitting the "S" shape water cut and the variation law of the development time, and the harmonic and complex exponential water cut prediction models can not only fit the "G" shape water cut and the development time variation law, but also fit the model. It can also fit the change law of "S" shape water content and development time. The improved water cut prediction model has high fitting accuracy and good effect through the application of the development blocks in the transitional zone of the north of Daqing oil field, the H2 reservoir in Pinghu oil field and the Paleogene Neogene reservoir in Yanmuxi oilfield, which is worthy of reference by other oilfields.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)石油吐哈油田分公司勘探開發(fā)研究院;
【基金】：中國(guó)石油科技重大專項(xiàng)(2017E-04-07)
【分類號(hào)】：TE341

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 黃伏生;趙永勝;;一種含水預(yù)測(cè)模型的補(bǔ)充說(shuō)明[J];石油勘探與開發(fā);1992年02期

2 趙永勝;黃秀禎;;遞減曲線的多功能預(yù)測(cè)模型[J];石油勘探與開發(fā);1985年05期

3 毛英雄;劉策;;一種改進(jìn)的灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型及應(yīng)用[J];天然氣勘探與開發(fā);2006年01期

4 李大昌;油氣田動(dòng)態(tài)灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型的選取方法[J];西南石油學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);1989年01期

5 宋洪才;劉爽;蘇嘉;;分相流曲線預(yù)測(cè)模型的建立及應(yīng)用[J];內(nèi)蒙古石油化工;2011年11期

6 廉黎明;秦積舜;楊思玉;楊永智;李實(shí);陳興隆;;用于CO_2-原油體系的改進(jìn)型黏度預(yù)測(cè)模型[J];石油勘探與開發(fā);2014年05期

7 褚王濤;;指數(shù)函數(shù)趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)模型在國(guó)際原油價(jià)格中期預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題;2010年09期

8 陳元千;郝明強(qiáng);;多峰預(yù)測(cè)模型的建立與應(yīng)用[J];新疆石油地質(zhì);2013年03期

9 葉正榮,樊世忠,朱斌;多方案酸敏快速預(yù)測(cè)模型的研究[J];鉆井液與完井液;1999年06期

10 劉翠玲,傘冶,王子才,孫新波;高溫高壓釜內(nèi)介質(zhì)溫度的預(yù)測(cè)模型及應(yīng)用[J];儀表技術(shù)與傳感器;2000年02期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前1條

1 程康;姜?jiǎng)?黃偉;;滾動(dòng)開發(fā)區(qū)塊產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)思路探討[A];創(chuàng)新·質(zhì)量·低碳·可持續(xù)發(fā)展——第十屆寧夏青年科學(xué)家論壇石化專題論壇論文集[C];2014年

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前1條

1 特約記者 劉京濤;華東化工銷售員工設(shè)計(jì)價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型見(jiàn)成效[N];中國(guó)石油報(bào);2010年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 馬新;基于灰色系統(tǒng)與核方法的油藏動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)方法研究[D];西南石油大學(xué);2016年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 潘斐;改進(jìn)型灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型在中石化油氣成本預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用研究[D];中國(guó)石油大學(xué);2011年

2 任海燕;酸水系統(tǒng)碳鋼沖蝕規(guī)律及預(yù)測(cè)方法研究[D];浙江理工大學(xué);2015年

，

本文編號(hào)：2133290