本文選題：加油站 + 預(yù)測(cè)　； 參考：《中國(guó)科技論文》2017年17期

【摘要】：針對(duì)現(xiàn)有加油站自動(dòng)補(bǔ)貨計(jì)劃模型無法滿足加油站銷量存在突增突減、油罐需保持較高的庫(kù)存運(yùn)行、需按油罐進(jìn)行配送等實(shí)際業(yè)務(wù)需求的情況,采用帶季節(jié)指數(shù)的指數(shù)平滑模型進(jìn)行加油站油品銷量預(yù)測(cè),提升加油站銷量預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性,采用改進(jìn)的(t,s,S)補(bǔ)貨策略進(jìn)行加油站油罐庫(kù)存控制,優(yōu)化了加油站自動(dòng)補(bǔ)貨計(jì)劃。結(jié)果表明:使用帶季節(jié)指數(shù)的指數(shù)平滑模型,通過處理離群值和調(diào)節(jié)銷量預(yù)測(cè)值進(jìn)行加油站油品銷量預(yù)測(cè),使得預(yù)測(cè)的配送計(jì)劃既滿足了加油站的需要,又保證了加油站庫(kù)存水平能滿足業(yè)務(wù)要求;同時(shí)采用定期庫(kù)存盤整條件下不定期定量改進(jìn)的(t,s,S)補(bǔ)貨策略進(jìn)行加油站油罐庫(kù)存控制,在保證加油站不斷油的情況下,得到的補(bǔ)貨計(jì)劃可執(zhí)行率更高。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that the existing automatic replenishment plan model of gas station can not meet the sudden increase and decrease of gas station sales volume, the oil tank needs to keep a high inventory operation and needs to distribute according to the actual business demand, such as oil tank, etc. The exponential smoothing model with seasonal index is used to predict the gas station oil sales volume, to improve the accuracy of the gas station sales forecast, to use the improved filling strategy to control the tank inventory, and to optimize the automatic restocking plan of the gas station. The results show that by using the exponential smoothing model with seasonal index, the outliers are processed and the predicted sales volume is adjusted. The predicted distribution plan meets the needs of the gas stations. It also ensures that the stock level of the gas station can meet the operational requirements, and at the same time, the filling strategy is adopted to control the stock of the fuel tank of the gas station under the condition of periodic inventory consolidation, which can be improved periodically and quantitatively, so as to ensure that the gas station keeps on filling. The restocking plan is more likely to be executed.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)商學(xué)院;中國(guó)石油規(guī)劃總院;重慶交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(71602015) 重慶市教委科技項(xiàng)目(KJ1600525)
【分類號(hào)】：F426.22

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