本文選題：天然氣長(zhǎng)輸管道 + 模擬　； 參考：《西南石油大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)天然氣長(zhǎng)輸管道建設(shè)速度與城市發(fā)展速度的迅速增加,越來(lái)越多的長(zhǎng)輸管道經(jīng)過(guò)人口聚集、建構(gòu)筑物集中的區(qū)域,一旦管道在這些區(qū)域發(fā)生事故將造成嚴(yán)重的后果,這些管道經(jīng)過(guò)的區(qū)域稱為高后果區(qū)�！�11·22青島輸油管爆炸事故”、7月31日高雄燃?xì)獗ㄊ鹿识紴槿藗兦庙懥司?因此需要提高對(duì)油氣管道高后果區(qū)的重視度。 國(guó)外政府在2000年初已經(jīng)出臺(tái)了油氣管道高后果區(qū)相關(guān)的法律法規(guī),國(guó)外研究機(jī)構(gòu)與學(xué)者也隨后對(duì)油氣管道高后果區(qū)進(jìn)行了研究,而我國(guó)目前缺乏油氣管道高后果區(qū)的法律法規(guī),相關(guān)研究也處于空白。本文旨在探索適合我國(guó)國(guó)情的天然氣長(zhǎng)輸管道高后果區(qū)識(shí)別與等級(jí)劃分的依據(jù),研究高后果區(qū)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法,為我國(guó)天然氣長(zhǎng)輸管道高后果區(qū)的安全管理提供有效的技術(shù)手段。 論文主要包括以下研究?jī)?nèi)容： (1)分析國(guó)內(nèi)某典型長(zhǎng)輸管道高后果區(qū)的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),采用因子分析法確定我國(guó)輸氣管道高后果區(qū)的特征因素及其貢獻(xiàn)率,提取高后果區(qū)的識(shí)別因素,然后結(jié)合我國(guó)國(guó)情和現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)分析結(jié)果識(shí)別因素的分布情況,為劃分高后果區(qū)識(shí)別因素的重要程度提供客觀依據(jù)。 (2)建立適用于天然氣長(zhǎng)輸管道的泄漏、擴(kuò)散、火災(zāi)、爆炸模型,并考慮天然氣的受力情況對(duì)模型進(jìn)行修正。在此基礎(chǔ)上采用PHAST軟件模擬事故發(fā)生情況,結(jié)合火災(zāi)爆炸事故傷害準(zhǔn)則、國(guó)家安全事故等級(jí)確定事故熱輻射的影響范圍和沖擊波超壓的影響范圍,為高后果區(qū)范圍的確定提供依據(jù)。 (3)提出新的高后果區(qū)范圍和管道的分段原則,依據(jù)人口因素、建構(gòu)筑物因素、特殊自然環(huán)境因素、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素等內(nèi)容,再采用歐幾里德距離和TOPSIS方法將四大識(shí)別因素結(jié)合,建立天然氣長(zhǎng)輸管道高后果區(qū)的識(shí)別模型,提出高后果區(qū)識(shí)別與等級(jí)劃分的判定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 (4)結(jié)合《管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理手冊(cè)》和相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)提供的天然氣長(zhǎng)輸管道的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,考慮第三方破壞的重要性,建立高后果區(qū)的失效可能性指標(biāo)體系。基于模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論,針對(duì)指標(biāo)體系疊加隱藏指標(biāo)低分值的情況,提出高后果區(qū)失效概率的計(jì)算方法。采用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣法,依據(jù)高后果區(qū)失效概率和高后果區(qū)等級(jí)兩大指標(biāo),確定天然氣長(zhǎng)輸管道高后果區(qū)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。 將本文的研究成果應(yīng)用于西氣東輸一線蘇浙滬管段,所得評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果符合該管段的客觀實(shí)際。
[Abstract]:With the rapid increase of natural gas pipeline construction speed and urban development speed in China, more and more long-distance pipelines pass through the areas where the population is concentrated and the structures are concentrated. Once the pipeline accidents occur in these areas, it will cause serious consequences. The area through which these pipelines pass is called the high-consequence area. "11 22 Qingdao pipeline explosion accident", the gas explosion accident in Kaohsiung on July 31 all sounded the alarm bell for people, so it is necessary to pay more attention to the high consequence area of oil and gas pipeline. At the beginning of 2000, foreign governments have issued laws and regulations related to high consequence areas of oil and gas pipelines, and foreign research institutions and scholars have also subsequently carried out research on high consequence areas of oil and gas pipelines. However, at present, China lacks laws and regulations on high consequence areas of oil and gas pipelines. The relevant research is also in blank. The purpose of this paper is to explore the basis for identifying and classifying the high consequence areas of natural gas pipelines suitable for the national conditions of our country, and to study the risk assessment methods of the high consequence areas. It provides an effective technical means for the safety management of the high-consequence area of long-distance natural gas pipeline in our country. The thesis mainly includes the following research contents: 1) analyzing the field investigation data of the high consequence area of a typical long-distance pipeline in China, using factor analysis method to determine the characteristic factors and their contribution rate of the high consequence area of the gas pipeline in China, and extracting the identification factors of the high consequence area. Then combining with the situation of our country and the distribution of the identification factors in the field survey data, the objective basis is provided for the important degree of distinguishing the factors in the high consequence area. (2) the model of leakage, diffusion, fire and explosion for long distance natural gas pipeline is established, and the model is modified considering the stress of natural gas. On this basis, using PHAST software to simulate the accident, combined with the fire and explosion accident injury criteria, the national safety accident grade to determine the impact range of thermal radiation and shock wave overpressure. To provide the basis for the determination of the area of high consequence. The paper puts forward the new segmental principle of high consequence area scope and pipeline. According to the population factor, the building structure factor, the special natural environment factor, the economic factor and so on, the Euclidean distance and the TOPSIS method are adopted to combine the four identifying factors. The identification model of high consequence area of long distance natural gas pipeline is established, and the criterion of high consequence area identification and classification is put forward. 4) considering the importance of third party damage and considering the risk factors of long distance natural gas pipeline provided by Pipeline risk Management Manual and related literature, the failure possibility index system of high consequence area is established. Based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics, a method for calculating the failure probability of high consequence region is presented in view of the low score of hidden index superimposed by index system. Risk matrix method is used to determine the risk level of high consequence area of long distance natural gas pipeline according to the two indexes of failure probability and grade of high consequence area. The research results of this paper are applied to the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shanghai pipe sections where the gas is transported from the west to the east, and the evaluation results are in line with the objective reality of the section.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TE973

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