本文選題：油氣管道 + 事故樹　； 參考：《油氣儲(chǔ)運(yùn)》2017年09期

【摘要】：隨著城市快速發(fā)展,通訊、熱力、油氣、供排水等管道相繼建設(shè)并投入使用,由于規(guī)劃、管理或部分歷史遺留原因使得各管網(wǎng)在地下縱橫交錯(cuò),形成一張巨大的"蜘蛛網(wǎng)",且無(wú)統(tǒng)一有效的管理機(jī)構(gòu),一旦發(fā)生油氣管道泄漏,如何快速辨識(shí)及事故溯源成為當(dāng)前安全及應(yīng)急管理的難點(diǎn)。針對(duì)該問(wèn)題,提出了基于事故樹(Fault Tree,FT)與動(dòng)態(tài)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)(Dynamic Bayes Network,DBN)的油氣管道事故快速辨識(shí)及深度溯源分析方法,充分利用FT建模的簡(jiǎn)便有效性、DBN反向推理能力及后驗(yàn)概率表達(dá)準(zhǔn)確性的優(yōu)勢(shì),通過(guò)分析城市油氣管道泄漏事故可能原因建立相應(yīng)的事故樹,將其轉(zhuǎn)化為DBN模型后融合歷史統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和多源觀測(cè)信息進(jìn)行事故場(chǎng)景快速辨識(shí)及溯源分析。分析結(jié)果與后期事故調(diào)查報(bào)告結(jié)論一致,表明該方法具有較好的準(zhǔn)確性和實(shí)用性,能夠?yàn)槭鹿蕬?yīng)急救援、事故調(diào)查提供指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the city, communication, heat, oil and gas, water supply and drainage pipes have been built and put into use one after another. Due to the planning, management or some historical reasons, the pipe network is crisscross in the underground, forming a huge "spider net", and there is no unified effective management organization. Once the oil and gas pipeline leaks, how to quickly identify and matter Therefore, traceability is the difficult point of current security and emergency management. In view of this problem, a fast identification and depth tracing analysis method for oil and gas pipeline accidents based on Fault Tree (FT) and dynamic Bayesian network (Dynamic Bayes Network, DBN) is proposed. The simplicity and effectiveness of FT modeling, the DBN reverse reasoning ability and the posterior probability table are fully utilized. By analyzing the possible cause of the leakage accident in urban oil and gas pipeline, the corresponding accident tree is established and transformed into the DBN model to fuse historical statistics and multi source observation information to identify and trace the accident scene quickly. The analysis results are in agreement with the conclusion of the later accident investigation report, indicating that the method is better. The accuracy and practicability can provide guidance for accident emergency rescue and accident investigation.

【作者單位】： 中國(guó)石油西部管道公司;中國(guó)石油工程建設(shè)有限公司華北分公司;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目“注油過(guò)程儲(chǔ)油罐內(nèi)靜電動(dòng)態(tài)聚集模式機(jī)理研究”,51204196
【分類號(hào)】：TE88

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本文編號(hào)：1776305