本文選題：天然氣分布式能源　切入點：經(jīng)濟評價　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著環(huán)境污染問題越來越嚴(yán)重,國內(nèi)外社會對新型清潔能源的發(fā)展越來越重視,天然氣分布式能源系統(tǒng)作為新能源應(yīng)用的典范,既可以實現(xiàn)能源的階梯利用,提供多種能源服務(wù),提高能源效率,又可以減少對環(huán)境的污染,改善生活環(huán)境,還可以大大節(jié)省向供能末端輸送能源的投資費用,在可預(yù)見的未來擁有廣闊的發(fā)展空間。對天然氣分布式能源系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟評價,為項目決策者提供決策信息,影響著項目的可行與否,因此,項目的經(jīng)濟評價方法的準(zhǔn)確性、全面性對項目的未來有非常重要的意義,合適的經(jīng)濟評價方法將對天然氣分布式能源發(fā)電的發(fā)展起到推動作用。本文首先介紹了天然氣分布式能源系統(tǒng)的工作原理、節(jié)能效益和優(yōu)缺點分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上,對天然氣分布式能源項目的財務(wù)評價和國民經(jīng)濟評價進行了簡要介紹,并針對工程實例,根據(jù)上海金山某天然氣分布式能源項目的實際技術(shù)經(jīng)濟參數(shù),計算項目的收入、支出等基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),繼而對項目進行財務(wù)評價分析,得出內(nèi)部收益率、凈現(xiàn)值、資本金凈利潤率、償債備付率等財務(wù)評價指標(biāo),在對項目進行國民經(jīng)濟評價時,結(jié)合天然氣分布式能源項目節(jié)能、高效率和提供多種能源服務(wù)的特點,確定其特有的環(huán)保外部性和供熱外部性做為主要討論對象。通過對傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟評價結(jié)果分析,總結(jié)出傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟評價存在問題,一方面財務(wù)評價指標(biāo)多,每個指標(biāo)僅能反映項目的某個側(cè)面,另一方面天然氣分布式能源節(jié)能環(huán)保和提供多種服務(wù)的特點在經(jīng)濟性上未被重視,針對上述問題,論文借鑒數(shù)學(xué)方法層次分析法和模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論,在傳統(tǒng)財務(wù)評價和國民經(jīng)濟評價的基礎(chǔ)上對項目進行綜合經(jīng)濟評價,建立綜合評價模型,在綜合經(jīng)濟評價模型中,運用層次分析法和模糊評價法,建立層次分析結(jié)構(gòu),將綜合經(jīng)濟評價結(jié)論層層分解,通過兩兩對比,得出各評價指標(biāo)權(quán)重,再運用模糊評價方法,計算綜合隸屬度,最終得到評價結(jié)果。通過對天然氣分布式能源項目經(jīng)濟評價的研究,評價項目經(jīng)濟性的優(yōu)劣,為項目決策者提供準(zhǔn)確、直觀的決策信息。
[Abstract]:As the environmental pollution problem becomes more and more serious, the development of new clean energy is paid more and more attention by the society at home and abroad. As a model of new energy application, natural gas distributed energy system can realize the ladder utilization of energy. Providing a variety of energy services, improving energy efficiency, reducing environmental pollution, improving the living environment, and significantly reducing the cost of investing in delivering energy to the end of the energy supply, The economic evaluation of natural gas distributed energy system provides decision information for project decision makers, which affects the feasibility of the project, therefore, the accuracy of the economic evaluation method of the project. Comprehensiveness is of great significance to the future of the project, and an appropriate economic evaluation method will promote the development of distributed energy generation by natural gas. This paper first introduces the working principle of the distributed energy system for natural gas. Based on the analysis of energy-saving benefits and advantages and disadvantages, the financial evaluation and national economic evaluation of natural gas distributed energy projects are briefly introduced. According to the actual technical and economic parameters of a natural gas distributed energy project in Jinshan, Shanghai, the basic data such as income and expenditure of the project are calculated, and then the financial evaluation of the project is carried out, and the internal rate of return, net present value, net profit margin of capital are obtained. When evaluating the national economy of the project, combining the characteristics of energy saving, high efficiency and various energy services provided by the natural gas distributed energy project, Determine its special environmental protection externality and heating externality as the main object of discussion. Through the analysis of the traditional economic evaluation results, we conclude that there are problems in the traditional economic evaluation, on the one hand, there are many financial evaluation indicators, Each index can only reflect one aspect of the project. On the other hand, the characteristics of distributing energy, energy saving, environmental protection and providing multiple services of natural gas have not been paid attention to economically. In view of the above problems, Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy mathematics theory, this paper carries on the comprehensive economic evaluation to the project on the basis of the traditional financial evaluation and the national economy evaluation, establishes the comprehensive evaluation model, and in the comprehensive economic evaluation model, The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the fuzzy evaluation method are used to establish the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) structure. The conclusion of the comprehensive economic evaluation is decomposed layer by layer. Through the comparison of two and two, the weight of each evaluation index is obtained, and then the comprehensive membership degree is calculated by using the fuzzy evaluation method. Finally, the evaluation results are obtained. Through the research on the economic evaluation of natural gas distributed energy project, the advantages and disadvantages of the project economy are evaluated, and the accurate and intuitionistic decision information is provided for the project decision makers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.22

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