本文選題：埋地原油長輸管道　切入點：定量風險分析　出處：《西南石油大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：石油管道作為國家經濟和能源的大動脈,對國家的發(fā)展起著舉足輕重的作用。但是,原油具有易燃、易爆和毒性等特點,一旦發(fā)生泄漏事故,容易導致火災爆炸等惡性事故。對原油管道進行正確合理的風險評價,能夠大大提高對事故隱患的預測能力,對制定合理的維護方案提供科學依據,解決日益突出的管道安全運營問題,最大限度的降低管道運行的風險,減少泄漏事故所導致的經濟損失、人員傷亡和環(huán)境污染。因此,研究埋地原油長輸管道的定量風險評價技術有十分重大的意義。 本文從我國埋地原油長輸管道的特點出發(fā),在國內外學者相關研究的基礎上,建立一套適應我國的管道定量風險評價方法。本文主要研究內容如下： (1)根據CONCAWE對輸油管道事故的統計,分析國外導致泄漏事故的原因,其中一般腐蝕問題是導致熱輸管道事故的主要原因,約占81%,第三方行為是導致冷輸管道事故的主要原因,約42%；大部分泄漏都是由于第三方行為和腐蝕引起,分別占事故總數的44.9%和27.7%,其次是機械故障和誤操作。通過對國內外事故的研究,考慮以第三方風險、腐蝕風險、設計風險和操作風險作為原油長輸管道的主要風險因素。 (2)以國外的泄漏率為基礎,研究適應我國管道的泄漏率。根據肯特法評分的細則,對現役管道所劃分的管段風險進行評分,運用云模型的規(guī)則發(fā)生器與逆向云發(fā)生器對這種定性語言到定量轉換的實現,確保評分過程中的模糊性和隨機性。采用熵值法確定我國埋地原油管道中各風險因素的權重值,得到各評價管段的總評分,依據總的評分采用修正模型得到評價管段的泄漏頻率。 (3)埋地熱油管道在輸送過程中存在壓能和熱能損失,且兩者相互影響。建立管道的溫降和壓降模型,確定埋地熱油管道的運行參數隨里程的變化情況,從而確定原油泄漏點的泄漏速率。采用池火災模型對事故后果進行模擬,以熱輻射傷害準則確定原油發(fā)生泄漏后的后續(xù)事故影響范圍。 (4)建立埋地原油管道風險的計算模型,包括管道泄漏風險頻率分析和管道后果分析兩部分。針對個人風險,采用定點風險分析的方法,對選取的管段計算個人風險分布。對個人風險和社會風險可接受水平進行了研究,提出個人風險和社會風險的計算模型,解決風險可接受水平定量計算的難題。
[Abstract]:As the artery of national economy and energy, oil pipeline plays an important role in the development of the country. However, crude oil has the characteristics of flammability, explosive and toxicity. It is easy to cause malignant accidents such as fire and explosion. The correct and reasonable risk assessment of crude oil pipeline can greatly improve the ability to predict the hidden dangers of accidents and provide scientific basis for formulating reasonable maintenance plans. Solve the increasingly prominent pipeline safety operation problems, minimize the risk of pipeline operation, reduce the economic losses, casualties and environmental pollution caused by leakage accidents. It is of great significance to study the quantitative risk assessment technology of buried crude oil pipeline. Based on the characteristics of buried long distance crude oil pipeline in China and on the basis of relevant research by scholars at home and abroad, a set of quantitative risk assessment methods for pipeline in China are established in this paper. The main contents of this paper are as follows:. According to the statistics of oil pipeline accidents by CONCAWE, this paper analyzes the causes of leakage accidents in foreign countries, among which the general corrosion problem is the main cause, accounting for about 81%, and the behavior of third parties is the main cause of cold pipeline accidents. Most of the leaks were caused by the behavior and corrosion of third parties, which accounted for 44.9% and 27.7% of the total number of accidents respectively, followed by mechanical failures and misoperation. Through the study of accidents at home and abroad, the risks of third party and corrosion were considered. Design risk and operational risk are the main risk factors of long distance crude oil pipeline. Based on the leakage rate of foreign countries, the leakage rate of pipeline adapted to our country is studied. According to the rules of Kent method, the risk of pipeline division in active service pipeline is graded. In order to ensure the fuzziness and randomness in the scoring process, the rule generator of cloud model and the reverse cloud generator are used to realize the conversion from qualitative language to quantitative analysis. The entropy method is used to determine the weight of each risk factor in the buried crude oil pipeline in China. The total score of each evaluation section was obtained, and the leakage frequency of the evaluated pipe segment was obtained by using the modified model according to the total score. 3) there are pressure energy and heat energy loss in the transportation process of buried geothermal oil pipeline, and they affect each other. The temperature drop and pressure drop model of buried geothermal oil pipeline are established, and the operating parameters of buried geothermal oil pipeline are determined with the variation of mileage. In order to determine the leakage rate of oil leakage point, the accident consequence is simulated by pool fire model, and the influence range of subsequent accident after oil leakage is determined by thermal radiation damage criterion. 4) establishing the calculation model of buried crude oil pipeline risk, including pipeline leakage risk frequency analysis and pipeline consequence analysis. Aiming at personal risk, the method of fixed-point risk analysis is adopted. This paper studies the acceptable level of individual risk and social risk, puts forward the calculation model of personal risk and social risk, and solves the problem of quantitative calculation of acceptable level of risk.
【學位授予單位】：西南石油大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TE88

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