本文關(guān)鍵詞：天然氣管道運(yùn)行風(fēng)險評價方法及其應(yīng)用研究　出處：《天津工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 天然氣管道運(yùn)行風(fēng)險 風(fēng)險評價 魚刺圖分析法 模糊綜合評價法

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,能源的消耗逐漸增加,對環(huán)境造成了嚴(yán)重破壞,同時帶來了不良的社會影響。為實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,作為環(huán)保型能源天然氣的需求不斷擴(kuò)大,天然氣管道運(yùn)輸行業(yè)已成為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的一項(xiàng)重要產(chǎn)業(yè)。然而,隨著天然氣管道數(shù)量的增加,以及管道"老齡化"時代的到來,天然氣管道事故也隨之而來,給人民生命和財產(chǎn)帶來了巨大的威脅,同時天然氣管道泄漏穿孔等問題也給天然氣運(yùn)行管理企業(yè)帶來了巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和不良的社會影響。因此,天然氣管道的運(yùn)行安全問題已成為風(fēng)險評價工作中亟待解決的一項(xiàng)重要問題。通過對當(dāng)前應(yīng)用較為廣泛的風(fēng)險評價方法進(jìn)行對比研究,最終確定采用定性與定量相結(jié)合的風(fēng)險評價方法,對天然氣管道的運(yùn)行風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評價研究。基于事故致因理論和事故統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),利用魚刺圖分析法對天然氣管道運(yùn)行風(fēng)險進(jìn)行定性分析,建立天然氣管道運(yùn)行事故可能性魚刺圖和天然氣管道事故后果嚴(yán)重度魚刺圖。利用魚刺圖找出導(dǎo)致天然氣管道事故的影響因素,建立天然氣管道事故可能性指標(biāo)體系和天然氣管道事故后果嚴(yán)重度指標(biāo)體系。利用模糊綜合評價法對天然氣管道運(yùn)行風(fēng)險進(jìn)行定量研究,采用專家調(diào)查表法,確定各影響因素的權(quán)重,對各影響因素進(jìn)行模糊綜合評價,利用加權(quán)平均法計(jì)算風(fēng)險值,并根據(jù)風(fēng)險值的大小進(jìn)行風(fēng)險程度的劃分。對N市天然氣管道的運(yùn)行情況進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評價應(yīng)用研究,對各管道段的風(fēng)險值進(jìn)行分別計(jì)算,并根據(jù)風(fēng)險值的大小提出相應(yīng)的維護(hù)預(yù)防措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy, the consumption of energy is increasing gradually, which has caused serious damage to the environment and brought bad social impact to realize the sustainable development of economy and environment. Natural gas pipeline transportation industry has become an important industry in the national economy. However, with the increase of the number of natural gas pipelines, the natural gas pipeline transportation industry has become an important industry. As well as the arrival of pipeline "aging" era, natural gas pipeline accidents have also followed, to people's lives and property has brought a huge threat. At the same time, the leakage and perforation of natural gas pipeline has brought huge economic loss and bad social impact to the natural gas operation and management enterprises. The safety of natural gas pipeline operation has become an important problem to be solved in the risk assessment work. This paper makes a comparative study on the risk assessment methods which are widely used at present. Finally, the risk assessment method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis is adopted to evaluate the operational risk of natural gas pipeline, based on accident cause theory and accident statistics data. The operation risk of natural gas pipeline is analyzed qualitatively by fish-prick-graph analysis. The possibility of natural gas pipeline accidents and the severity of natural gas pipeline accidents are drawn. The influencing factors of natural gas pipeline accidents are found out by using fish spurs. The possibility index system of natural gas pipeline accident and the severity index system of natural gas pipeline accident consequence are established. The risk of natural gas pipeline operation is studied quantitatively by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the expert questionnaire method is adopted. The weight of each influencing factor is determined, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of each influencing factor is carried out, and the risk value is calculated by the weighted average method. According to the size of risk value, the risk degree is divided. The risk evaluation of N city natural gas pipeline is studied, and the risk value of each pipeline section is calculated separately. And according to the risk value of the corresponding maintenance and prevention measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TE88

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