本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備安全預警模型研究　出處：《大連海事大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備是指國家為了應(yīng)付供應(yīng)危機等意外情況,為了保障國家的天然氣供應(yīng)安全,而在平時有計劃的建立的一定數(shù)量天然氣的庫存。我國自2006年后開始進口天然氣。隨著天然氣進口量的逐年增加,我國對天然氣進口的依存度也在飆升。天然氣表觀消費量的進口依存度由2012年的29%增至2014年的33%。于是我國天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備的建設(shè)刻不容緩。雖然已經(jīng)有部分學者對天然氣的戰(zhàn)略儲備做出了一定的研究,但是對于天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備的安全預警的研究領(lǐng)域還尚存空白。本文將建立我國天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備安全預警模型,從客觀的角度為保證我國天然氣供應(yīng)安全提出一種新的方法。筆者利用主成分分析法和K均值聚類法確定我國天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備預警的安全界限；然后以我國天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備帶來的社會收益最高和戰(zhàn)略儲備總成本最小為目標,以供求限制為約束建立了天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備安全儲備規(guī)模多目標規(guī)劃模型,并求解出最優(yōu)儲備規(guī)模；最后對結(jié)果進行了科學的分析并對模型內(nèi)參數(shù)進行了靈敏度分析,使在模型應(yīng)用與安全預控規(guī)模決定的時候可以利用宏觀調(diào)控參數(shù)以調(diào)整決策。可以為以后的天然氣戰(zhàn)略儲備安全預警系統(tǒng)的建設(shè)提供可以參考的思路。
[Abstract]:The natural gas reserve strategy refers to the countries in order to cope with the supply crisis and other unforeseen circumstances, in order to guarantee the safe supply of natural gas and natural gas in the country, a certain number of peacetime planned established inventory. China began to import natural gas since 2006. With the natural gas imports increased year by year, China's imports of natural gas dependence is soaring. Natural gas import consumption dependence increased from 29% in 2012 to 33%. in 2014 and the construction of China's natural gas reserves strategic imperative. Although there have been some scholars on the strategic reserves of natural gas has made certain research, but the research in the field of safety early warning for natural gas reserve strategy the remaining blank. This paper will establish a strategic reserve of China's natural gas safety early warning model, from an objective point of view to ensure that we put forward a new method of China's natural gas supply security. Author Analysis to determine the safety limit early warning strategic reserves of natural gas in China and K means clustering by using the method of principal component; minimum social benefits and then brought to the highest strategic reserves of natural gas reserves in China strategic total cost as the goal, to supply and demand as restriction of the natural gas reserve safety reserve scale multi-objective programming model, and for the optimal reserve scale; finally the results are analyzed and the model parameters are analysed, which can use macro parameters when model application and safety control decision to adjust the scale decision. To provide reference ideas for the construction of natural gas reserves can be strategic security early warning system for the future.

【學位授予單位】：大連海事大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.22

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本文編號：1391954