本文選題：工程造價 + 風(fēng)險管理��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：工程項目由于在實施過程受到了內(nèi)外部各種不確定性因素的影響,具有很大的風(fēng)險性。工程造價“三超”現(xiàn)象不斷,很大部分原因是造價管理者缺乏工程造價風(fēng)險管理意識,對建設(shè)項目實施過程中造價風(fēng)險估計不夠。本文在系統(tǒng)分析和全面總結(jié)國內(nèi)外工程造價管理學(xué)者在工程造價風(fēng)險管理研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,立足于建設(shè)單位的角度,結(jié)合風(fēng)險管理基本管理理論和工程造價管理實例,從理論和實踐兩個方面,對工程項目全過程的工程造價風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了研究。 首先,通過總結(jié)常用風(fēng)險識別的方法,選擇運(yùn)用WBS-RBS法和專家調(diào)查法相結(jié)合的風(fēng)險識別法對建設(shè)項目各階段的造價風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了全面、系統(tǒng)的識別,建立了工程造價風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系,并對各風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析。 其次,探討了集對分析方法在工程造價風(fēng)險評價與決策方法。運(yùn)用GSPA法對層次分析法進(jìn)行了改進(jìn),提出了新的改進(jìn)層次分析法—GSPA-IAHP主觀賦權(quán)法；通過引入一種基于線性變化的單指標(biāo)IDO聯(lián)系度確定方法,建立了基于集對分析的工程造價風(fēng)險評估模型。同時,提出了工程造價風(fēng)險評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 然后,針對工程建設(shè)各階段的造價風(fēng)險,提出了風(fēng)險處理策略和具體的風(fēng)險防范措施。 最后,以長沙市某別墅項目為例,對全過程工程造價風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評價。運(yùn)用GSPA-IAHP主觀賦權(quán)法進(jìn)行了工程造價風(fēng)險排序,運(yùn)用集對分析工程造價風(fēng)險評估模型對各階段風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了綜合評價,并進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險預(yù)警監(jiān)控計算示例。從計算過程可以看出,該方法計算過程清晰、簡單,具有廣泛的應(yīng)用前景,這對類似工程造價風(fēng)險管理提供了理論和實踐的參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The project has been affected by various uncertainties in the internal and external factors in the implementation process, which has great risk. The "three super" phenomenon of the project cost is constant. Most of the reasons are that the cost managers lack the risk management awareness of the project cost, and the cost risk of the construction project is not estimated enough. On the basis of the research results of engineering cost risk management at home and abroad, based on the construction unit, combined with the basic management theory of risk management and the example of engineering cost management, this paper studies the project cost risk of the whole project from two aspects of theory and practice.
First, by summarizing the commonly used risk identification methods, the risk identification method, which combines the WBS-RBS method and the expert investigation method, is selected to make a comprehensive and systematic identification of the cost risk of each stage of the construction project. The evaluation index system of the project cost risk is established, and the risk factors are analyzed in detail.
Secondly, the evaluation and decision method of the set pair analysis method in engineering cost risk are discussed. The GSPA method is used to improve the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and a new improved analytic hierarchy process (GSPA-IAHP) subjective weighting method is proposed. By introducing a single index IDO connection degree method based on linear change, a set pair analysis is established. Cost risk assessment model. At the same time, the risk assessment standard of project cost is proposed.
Then, aiming at the cost risk in every stage of engineering construction, risk treatment strategies and specific risk prevention measures are put forward.
Finally, taking a villa project in Changsha as an example, the project cost risk of the whole process is evaluated. The risk ranking of the project cost is carried out by using the GSPA-IAHP subjective empowerment method. The risk factors of each stage are evaluated comprehensively by using the set pair analysis of the project cost risk assessment model, and the calculation example of the risk early warning and monitoring is carried out. It can be seen that the calculation process of this method is clear and simple and has a wide application prospect, which provides a theoretical and practical reference for the risk management of similar project cost.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU723.3

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