本文關(guān)鍵詞： 工程項(xiàng)目 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) 指標(biāo)體系 群決策　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,建筑行業(yè)極大的推動(dòng)著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的進(jìn)步,并己成為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。建筑行業(yè)工程項(xiàng)目施工都伴隨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且由于國(guó)家政策的調(diào)整和建筑業(yè)日益激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),使得工程項(xiàng)目逐漸成為熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題,尤其是項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)受到了越來(lái)越多的關(guān)注。從現(xiàn)有研究存在的問(wèn)題來(lái)看,工程項(xiàng)目在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方面缺乏既定的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),誤差較大；在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題研究方面,學(xué)者較多的是針對(duì)某一方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行研究,沒(méi)有將項(xiàng)目中出現(xiàn)的各方面問(wèn)題結(jié)合起來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)研究；在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素識(shí)別方面,項(xiàng)目建設(shè)團(tuán)隊(duì)由于管理成本問(wèn)題往往不愿進(jìn)行識(shí)別；再者,學(xué)者針對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)較多采用定性研究,具有一定的主觀隨意性,而采用定量研究風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的方法往往由于分析方法較為復(fù)雜,使其不太具有可操作性。如何有效的對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行規(guī)避,促進(jìn)建筑業(yè)的健康發(fā)展是一個(gè)迫在眉睫的問(wèn)題。 本文以工程項(xiàng)目施工方為研究對(duì)象,探討了項(xiàng)目施工方整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的群決策評(píng)價(jià)方法。本文簡(jiǎn)述了有關(guān)項(xiàng)目施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)及群決策評(píng)價(jià)的基本理論;構(gòu)建了施工方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用群決策理論,建立了工程項(xiàng)目施工方的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)數(shù)學(xué)模型；用實(shí)例演示了模型的汁算方法與評(píng)價(jià)過(guò)程,論證了方法的有效性,理論與實(shí)踐相互映證。研究成果為業(yè)主對(duì)施工方的整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供了一種科學(xué)有效的評(píng)價(jià)方法。 本文由六大部分組成。首先,主要介紹了本文的研究背景、目的以及意義,從工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn),工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)以及群決策三個(gè)方面進(jìn)行相關(guān)理論的研究現(xiàn)狀概述,總結(jié)出現(xiàn)有研究存在的問(wèn)題,提出本文的研究思路與方法。接著,對(duì)相關(guān)理論概述。然后,結(jié)合工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別以及指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建的原則對(duì)工：程項(xiàng)目施工方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的構(gòu)建,根據(jù)實(shí)際情況對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目施工方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的各類(lèi)因素進(jìn)行分析,識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響因素,從而構(gòu)建風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的體系。進(jìn)而,工程項(xiàng)目施工方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法及模型構(gòu)建,首先用因子分析對(duì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行選取,進(jìn)而構(gòu)建工程項(xiàng)目施工方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的群決策模型。最后,實(shí)證研究。通過(guò)選取的實(shí)例對(duì)項(xiàng)目施工方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)群決策方法進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,并對(duì)最后的實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行充分闡述,從而確定方法的可操作性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of our economy, the construction industry has greatly promoted the economic and social progress, and has become the pillar industry of our national economy. And because of the adjustment of national policy and the increasingly fierce competition of the construction industry, the engineering project has gradually become a hot issue, especially the risk evaluation of the project has been paid more and more attention. The project lacks the established standard in the risk evaluation, the error is big; in the risk research aspect, the scholar mostly carries on the research aimed at a certain aspect of risk, does not combine each aspect question which appears in the project to evaluate the research; In the aspect of risk factor identification, the project construction team is often unwilling to identify the risk factors because of the problem of management cost. Moreover, the scholars mostly adopt qualitative research in view of risk evaluation, which has a certain subjective arbitrariness. However, the method of quantitative research risk assessment is often difficult to operate because of the complexity of the analytical method. How to effectively avoid the risks of engineering projects and promote the healthy development of the construction industry is an urgent problem. Taking the construction side of engineering project as the research object, this paper discusses the method of group decision evaluation of the whole risk of project construction, and briefly introduces the basic theory of project construction risk, risk evaluation and group decision evaluation. The risk evaluation index system of construction side is constructed, and the mathematical model of comprehensive risk evaluation of engineering project is established by using the theory of group decision, and the calculation method and evaluation process of the model are demonstrated with an example, and the validity of the method is demonstrated. The research results provide a scientific and effective evaluation method for the owner's overall risk to the construction side. This paper is composed of six parts. Firstly, it introduces the research background, purpose and significance of this paper, and summarizes the research status quo of the related theories from three aspects of engineering project risk, engineering project risk evaluation and group decision making. Summarize the problems existing in the research, put forward the research ideas and methods of this paper. Then, summarize the relevant theories. Then, Combined with the identification of engineering project risk and the construction principle of index system, this paper analyzes the various factors of engineering project construction side risk according to the actual situation of the construction party risk evaluation index system of Cheng project. The risk assessment system is constructed by identifying the influencing factors of the risk. Then, the risk assessment method and model construction of the construction side of the engineering project is constructed. Firstly, the index is selected by factor analysis. Finally, the empirical research. Through the selected examples to verify the project construction side risk evaluation group decision-making method, and the final empirical results are fully elaborated. Thus, the maneuverability of the method is determined.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TU71

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