本文關鍵詞： 水文水動力耦合模型 糙率反演 水情數(shù)據(jù)同化 先驗知識 廣義反演 卡爾曼濾波　出處：《浙江大學》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：目前,城市雨洪模型多數(shù)用于規(guī)劃階段的分析,若要更好地服務于城市防洪及排水系統(tǒng)日常管理,須建立能夠實時反映排水系統(tǒng)真實運行狀態(tài)和能對未來一段時間內水情預報的水情仿真與預報系統(tǒng)。本文從城市區(qū)域產匯流特性分析等方面入手,構建了一個適用于城市區(qū)域的水文水動力耦合模型,研究了模型參數(shù)反演和數(shù)據(jù)同化技術,初步搭建了一個城市水情仿真、校正與預報的實時系統(tǒng)。論文的主要研究成果如下： (1)提出了以矩陣化形式對水文與水動力模型進行耦合的方法,并結合多種措施對提高計算的穩(wěn)定性、精度和效率進行了研究,包括：1)采用基流法和窄縫設計法進行干濕交替的處理；2)采用迭代計算處理堰閘等非線性內邊界；3)賦予節(jié)點蓄水面積以加強系數(shù)矩陣的主對角占優(yōu)性；4)采用迭代法結合矩陣標識法進行方程組的求解；5)研究了固定系數(shù)矩陣、只改變方程組右端項以提高計算效率的方法；6)提出了考慮連續(xù)方程和動量方程線性化處理后二階及以上小量的計算方法。 (2)針對定床河道糙率的率定,提出了兩個結合先驗知識的反演模型：糙率空間分布最平滑模型和糙率估值修正最小模型。數(shù)值仿真表明：1)當糙率初值選在合理范圍內時,模型受初值選取的影響較��；2)當監(jiān)測信息較少時,模型亦能獲得較為合理的結果,并隨著監(jiān)測信息的增加,反演結果趨于真解；3)模型具有較好的抗噪性,通過控制糙率空間分布平滑項或糙率估值修正項的權重,能有效抑制監(jiān)測信息誤差引起的數(shù)值擾動。 (3)以擴展卡爾曼濾波為基礎,構造了多個河道糙率動態(tài)修正算法。數(shù)值仿真表明：結合糙率修正平滑性且以糙率和水情變量為系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)變量的擴展卡爾曼濾波,能有效防止糙率的突變和失真。 (4)在水位、流量等水情變量的數(shù)據(jù)同化方面,提出并探索了擴展卡爾曼濾波、集合卡爾曼濾波和廣義反演法三種方法。數(shù)值仿真表明：1)擴展卡爾曼濾波的數(shù)據(jù)同化效果好,可同時對糙率、水位、流量等變量進行校正；2)集合卡爾曼濾波的適用范圍廣,計算簡便；3)廣義反演法的計算原理簡單,可避免狀態(tài)修正過大而嚴重破壞原先的水量平衡關系。 (5)在上述研究成果的基礎上,針對目前應用較廣的城市雨洪管理模型SWMM存在的不足進行了改進,搭建了城市水情實時仿真與預報系統(tǒng)的結構框架,完成了核心計算程序的開發(fā)。
[Abstract]:At present, most of the urban rain flood models are used in the analysis of the planning stage, if we want to better serve the daily management of urban flood control and drainage system. It is necessary to establish a water regime simulation and forecasting system which can reflect the real operating state of drainage system and forecast the water regime in the future in real time. This paper starts with the analysis of the characteristics of production and confluence in urban areas. A hydrohydrodynamic coupling model suitable for urban area is constructed. The parameter inversion and data assimilation techniques are studied. A preliminary urban water regime simulation is built. The main research results of this paper are as follows: 1) the coupling method of hydrology and hydrodynamic model is put forward in the form of matrix, and the stability, accuracy and efficiency of calculation are studied in combination with various measures. It includes: (1) adopting basic flow method and narrow slot design method to deal with dry and wet alternately; 2) iterative calculation is used to deal with nonlinear inner boundary such as Weir and sluice; 3) giving the node water storage area to strengthen the principal diagonal dominance of the coefficient matrix; 4) the iterative method combined with the matrix marking method is used to solve the equations. 5) the fixed coefficient matrix is studied, which only changes the right end of the equations to improve the calculation efficiency. 6) A method for calculating the second order and above after linearization of the continuous equation and momentum equation is presented. (2) according to the roughness of fixed bed channel. Two inversion models combining prior knowledge are proposed: the smoothest model of roughness spatial distribution and the modified minimum model of roughness estimation. The numerical simulation shows that when the initial roughness value is selected within a reasonable range, the numerical simulation shows that the initial roughness is selected within a reasonable range. The model is less affected by the selection of initial values. 2) when the monitoring information is less, the model can get more reasonable results, and with the increase of monitoring information, the inversion results tend to true solution; 3) the model has good noise resistance. By controlling the weight of roughness spatial distribution smoothing term or roughness estimation correction term, the numerical disturbance caused by monitoring information error can be effectively suppressed. 3) based on extended Kalman filtering. The numerical simulation shows that the extended Kalman filter is based on the roughness correction smoothness and the roughness and hydrological variables are the system state variables. Can effectively prevent roughness mutation and distortion. 4) in the aspect of data assimilation of water level, discharge and other water regime variables, the extended Kalman filter is proposed and explored. The numerical simulation shows that the extended Kalman filter has good data assimilation effect, and can be corrected for roughness, water level and discharge at the same time. 2) the set Kalman filter has a wide range of applications and is easy to calculate; 3) the principle of generalized inversion method is simple, and the state correction can avoid serious damage to the original water balance relationship. 5) on the basis of the above research results, aiming at the shortcomings of the widely used urban rain flood management model (SWMM), the structure of the real-time simulation and forecast system of urban water regime is set up. Completed the development of the core computing program.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TV87;TU992

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