多年來,水稻一直為世界人口提供糧食,特別是在中國、印度和巴基斯坦等國主導(dǎo)的亞洲大陸。同樣,世界上幾乎90%的水稻都產(chǎn)自該地區(qū);然而,如今包括非洲在內(nèi)的世界不同地區(qū),水稻的生產(chǎn)和消費廣泛存在。在坦桑尼亞,稻米部門發(fā)揮著更大的作用,包括對國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的貢獻和為農(nóng)村和城市人口提供糧食保障。在谷類作物中,稻米在坦桑尼亞人的生產(chǎn)和消費方面僅次于玉米。生產(chǎn)主要由坦桑尼亞農(nóng)村地區(qū)的小規(guī)模農(nóng)民進行,那里大約90%的人依賴于旱稻生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。由于受雨養(yǎng)系統(tǒng)的支配,水稻容易受到頻繁天氣變化和沖擊造成生產(chǎn)變化的影響。本研究旨在回答以下四個具體目標(biāo):（1）分析姆比亞地區(qū)家庭的社會經(jīng)濟特征和大氣氣象因素的變化對水稻生產(chǎn)的影響;（2）評估稻農(nóng)對小尺度水稻氣象因素變化的感知、指標(biāo)和意識,采用Logistic回歸模型對姆比亞地區(qū)農(nóng)戶進行分析;（3）應(yīng)用Fisher回歸方程和Chebyshev多項式函數(shù)建立了坦桑尼亞姆比亞地區(qū)水稻生育期氣象因子與水稻產(chǎn)量的關(guān)系;（4）在氣象因子變異的情況下,確定坦桑尼亞稻農(nóng)采用灌溉技術(shù)的決策因子及其對水稻產(chǎn)量的貢獻。為了回答上述四個研究的目標(biāo),使用了兩種類型的數(shù)據(jù)。第一類是關(guān)于家庭社會經(jīng)濟... 

【文章來源】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院北京市

【文章頁數(shù)】：119 頁

【學(xué)位級別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
abstract
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Research Background
    1.2 Agricultural Production in Sub-Sahara Africa
    1.3 Problem Statement
    1.4 Significance of the Study
    1.5 Objectives of the Study
        1.5.1 Specific Objectives
    1.6 Limitation of the Study
    1.7 Research Contents and Outline
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 Influences of Famers’ Socio-economics Characteristics and Weather variability on rice production
    2.2 Farmers’Perceptions and Indicators for Weather variability
    2.3 Impact of Meteorological Factors on Crops Production
    2.4 Farmers’ decisions for adopting Irrigation as an adaptive mechanism in the event of weather variability
CHAPTER3 AGRICULTURE CONTEXT IN TANZANIA
    3.1 Agricultural Background
        3.1.1 Rice Production and Rice Intensification in Tanzania
        3.1.2 Climate
        3.1.3 Tanzania Economic Development
    3.2 Tanzania’s Agricultural Sector Development
        3.2.1 Crops production in Tanzania
    3.3 Impact of Weather Variability in the Tanzania Agricultural sector
CHAPTER4 THEORY AND METHODOLOGY
    4.1 Research Site Selection
    4.2 Sampling Technique
    4.3 Data Collection Procedure
        4.3.1 Secondary Data Collection
        4.3.2 Primary Data Collection and Questionnaire Design
    4.4 Conceptual framework for the Impact of weather,Socioeconomic Characteristics and Adaptation mechanism on Rice Production
    4.5 Models Selection
        4.5.1 Model for the Impact of Households’ Characteristics and Weather Variability on Rice Yield
        4.5.2 Model for Rice Farmers’ Perceptions and Indicators for Weather Variability
        4.5.3 Model for Weather Yield relationship with Rice Yield
        4.5.4 Models for Decisions Factors for Adopting Irrigation and its Significant to Rice Yield in Tanzania
    4.6 Data Analysis Procedures
CHAPTER5 DATA DESCRIPTION AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS
    5.1 Statistical Descriptive Analysis
        5.1.1 Household Information
        5.1.2 Occupation of the household head
        5.1.3 Land ownership and Crop farming by households head
        5.1.4 Households’Rice Production Constraints
    5.2 Influences of households’Socio-economic Characteristics and Weather on rice Production
        5.2.1 Socio-economic Attribute of the households’head
        5.2.2 Farmers’Perceptions of Weather factors with respect to rice yields
        5.2.3 The empirical results of the influences of households’characteristics on rice yields
    5.3 Farmers Perceptions,Indicators and adoption behaviour
        5.3.1 Farmers’perceptions of weather variability
        5.3.2 Indicators for Weather Variability
        5.3.3 Responses to abnormal weather changes
        5.3.4 Obstacles for immediate adaptations by farmers
        5.3.5 The logistic regression analysis on farmers’awareness of weather variability.
    5.4 Impacts of Weather on rice production
        5.4.1 Descriptive statistics result for weather variables and rice yield trends(1981-2017)
        5.4.2 Results for the trend yield
        5.4.3 Results for Impacts of a meteorological factor on rice yield
    5.5 Irrigation adoption and its Significant to rice yield
        5.5.1 Characteristics of the Irrigation adopters and non-adopters
        5.5.2 Influencing Factors for Farmers’decision to adopt irrigation technology
        5.5.3 Modelling contribution of Irrigation technology to rice yield
CHAPTER6 FURTHER DISCUSSION
    6.1 Influence of households’ socio-economic characteristics and Weather variations on rice production
    6.2 Farmers’ perceptions,indicators,and awareness on Weather variability
    6.3 Impact of meteorological factors on rice growth stages
    6.4 Decision factors for adopting irrigation technology by rice farmers and the contribution of irrigation to rice yield
CHAPTER7 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    7.1 Conclusion
    7.2 Recommendations
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY



本文編號：3226183