發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-07-04 07:30

【摘要】：為了建立南方雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害綜合預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)警技術(shù)體系,基于南方雙季稻種植區(qū)1961 2010年708個(gè)氣象站的逐日氣象資料、水稻生育期資料和低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生的氣象行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),采用Fishe r判別分析法、因子膨化法、相關(guān)性分析法,利用SPSS軟件構(gòu)建早稻春季低溫災(zāi)害高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)(Ⅰ區(qū))未來10 d、晚稻寒露風(fēng)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)(Ⅰ區(qū))、主災(zāi)區(qū)(Ⅱ區(qū))未來5 d的低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生等級(jí)逐日滾動(dòng)預(yù)警模型。其中,1961 2009年資料用于模型構(gòu)建和回代檢驗(yàn),2010年資料用于模型的外延預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果表明:早稻、晚粳稻、晚秈稻Ⅰ區(qū)平均外延預(yù)測(cè)基本一致準(zhǔn)確率分別達(dá)到90.5%,74.2%,80.3%,晚粳稻、晚秈稻Ⅱ區(qū)平均外延預(yù)測(cè)基本一致準(zhǔn)確率分別為89.4%和80.3%。構(gòu)建的南方雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害逐日滾動(dòng)預(yù)警模型的外延預(yù)測(cè)基本一致準(zhǔn)確率多超過80%,等級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)檢驗(yàn)誤差總體上在1個(gè)等級(jí)以內(nèi),模型評(píng)價(jià)效果較好。
[Abstract]:In order to establish the comprehensive prediction and early warning technology system of low temperature disaster in southern double cropping rice, based on the daily meteorological data of 708 meteorological stations in southern double cropping rice growing area in 1961 and 2010, the data of rice growth period and the meteorological industry standard of low temperature disaster, Fishe r discriminant analysis, factor expansion method and correlation analysis were used to construct the early rice spring low temperature disaster high risk area (area I) for the next 10 days. A daily rolling early warning model for the occurrence of low temperature disasters in the high risk area of late rice Cold Dew (area 鈪，

本文編號(hào)：2509740