【摘要】：準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)氣象因子變化特征及對(duì)參考作物蒸散量(reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0)的影響,對(duì)農(nóng)田水文循環(huán)、區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)水資源優(yōu)化配置與高效利用等具有重要意義。利用中國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)258個(gè)氣象站點(diǎn)1961 2013年的逐日氣象資料,采用Penman-Monteith公式計(jì)算ET0,通過(guò)M-K趨勢(shì)檢驗(yàn)法、偏相關(guān)分析、多元線性回歸計(jì)算貢獻(xiàn)率等方法,分析了1961—2013年中國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)主要?dú)庀笠蜃訒r(shí)空演變及其對(duì)ET0變化的貢獻(xiàn)特征。結(jié)果表明,1961—2013年中國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)相對(duì)濕度、溫度、降水在空間上由南至北呈降低趨勢(shì),而日照時(shí)間和風(fēng)速則由南至北呈增高趨勢(shì);1961—2013年中國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)全區(qū)、溫帶濕潤(rùn)半濕潤(rùn)地區(qū)(I區(qū))、溫帶干旱半干旱地區(qū)(II區(qū))、亞熱帶濕潤(rùn)地區(qū)(III區(qū))及暖溫帶半濕潤(rùn)地區(qū)(IV區(qū))多年平均氣溫均呈增大趨勢(shì),平均風(fēng)速、相對(duì)濕度、降水與日照時(shí)間均呈減小趨勢(shì);1961—2013年中國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)年內(nèi)ET0均呈鋸齒狀下降,且ET0在四季呈現(xiàn)出夏季春季秋季冬季的特征;多年平均風(fēng)速、氣溫、日照時(shí)間與ET0在全區(qū)及各分區(qū)總體均顯著正相關(guān)(P0.05),而相對(duì)濕度與ET0在全區(qū)及各分區(qū)均極顯著負(fù)相關(guān)(P0.01);1961—2013年中國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)全區(qū)及I~IV區(qū)氣溫、風(fēng)速、相對(duì)濕度對(duì)ET0變化均具有較大貢獻(xiàn),其中相對(duì)濕度為I區(qū)、III區(qū)及IV區(qū)的主要?dú)庀篁?qū)動(dòng)因子,其次為平均氣溫和風(fēng)速;而II區(qū)ET0變化的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子為風(fēng)速,其平均貢獻(xiàn)率WII(風(fēng)速)為0.37;綜上所述,中國(guó)糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)主要?dú)庀笠蜃幼兓卣髋cET0的響應(yīng),均呈現(xiàn)出區(qū)域性、季節(jié)性差異。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to accurately evaluate the variation characteristics of meteorological factors in major grain producing areas and the effects on reference crop evapotranspiration (reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0), such as hydrological cycle in agricultural fields, optimal allocation and efficient utilization of regional agricultural water resources, and so on. Based on the daily meteorological data of 258 meteorological stations in the main grain producing areas of China in 1961 ~ 2013, the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the ET0, by MK trend test, partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression calculation of contribution rate and so on. The temporal and spatial evolution of main meteorological factors and their contribution to ET0 changes in major grain producing areas in China from 1961 to 2013 were analyzed. The results showed that the relative humidity, temperature and precipitation decreased from south to north in the main grain producing areas of China from 1961 to 2013, while the sunshine time and wind speed increased from south to north. China's main grain producing areas in 1961-2013, temperate humid and semi-humid regions (zone I), temperate arid and semi-arid regions (II region), The mean air temperature in subtropical humid area (III region) and warm temperate sub-humid area (IV region) showed an increasing trend, while the mean wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation and sunshine time decreased. During the year of 1961-2013, the ET0 of the main grain producing areas in China all showed serrated decline, and the ET0 showed the characteristics of summer, spring, autumn and winter in the four seasons. The mean wind speed, air temperature and sunshine time were positively correlated with ET0 (P0.05), while relative humidity (RH) was negatively correlated with ET0 (P0.01). From 1961 to 2013, the temperature, wind speed and relative humidity all contributed to the change of ET0 in the main grain producing areas and I~IV areas of China. The relative humidity was the main meteorological driving factor in the regions I, III and IV, followed by the average air temperature and wind speed. The main driving factor of ET0 change in II region is wind speed, and its average contribution rate WII (wind speed) is 0.37. In conclusion, the main meteorological factors in main grain producing areas in China and the response of ET0 show regional and seasonal differences.
【作者單位】： 四川大學(xué)水利水電學(xué)院水力學(xué)與山區(qū)河流開(kāi)發(fā)保護(hù)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;南方丘區(qū)節(jié)水農(nóng)業(yè)研究四川省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)旱區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)水土工程教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室中國(guó)旱區(qū)節(jié)水農(nóng)業(yè)研究院;中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究所作物高效用水與抗災(zāi)減損國(guó)家工程實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2015BAD24B01) 西北典型農(nóng)區(qū)高效節(jié)水灌溉技術(shù)與集成應(yīng)用項(xiàng)目(2016YFC0400200)
【分類號(hào)】：S161

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