【摘要】：隨著全球氣候變暖,高溫天氣頻發(fā),高溫?zé)岷λ镜挠绊懭找嫱怀�。長江中下游地區(qū)是我國水稻的主要產(chǎn)區(qū)之一,研究該地區(qū)的高溫?zé)岷Φ陌l(fā)生規(guī)律為減輕熱害威脅、減小經(jīng)濟損失有著重要的意義。本文根據(jù)長江中下游地區(qū)共104個氣象站點1951年至2010年的氣象資料,運用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計學(xué)與GIS技術(shù)分析了各地區(qū)高溫?zé)岷Πl(fā)生的時空分布規(guī)律,構(gòu)建高溫事件概率模型模擬各地區(qū)高溫天氣的發(fā)生概率。主要研究內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下:1、分別以高溫?zé)岷Πl(fā)生頻次和高溫強度為推算因子,用空間推算模型分析各地高溫?zé)岷Φ目臻g分布,表明高海拔及近海地區(qū)災(zāi)害程度普遍較輕,高緯度相對較輕,江西和浙江的中西部熱害最為嚴重,而6省中高溫?zé)岷Πl(fā)生最輕的是江蘇省。2、對近50年來高溫?zé)岷Φ慕y(tǒng)計分析發(fā)現(xiàn)長江中下游地區(qū)高溫?zé)岷τ形⑷踉鰪姷内厔�。高溫�(zé)岷Φ念l次及強度均呈先減小后增大的年代際變化特征。21世紀(jì)初10年熱害平均頻次達到最多3.21次/a,平均強度達到最大31℃/a。3、使用Mann-Kendall對各省歷年的平均高溫強度進行突變檢測,結(jié)果表明安徽、江蘇、浙江及湖北四個省份在2002年有突變現(xiàn)象發(fā)生。長江中下游地區(qū)在2002前年平均高溫強度為20.56℃/a,而在2002年之后達到33.72℃/a,增幅超過50%。4、構(gòu)建了以日序和單日高溫強度為隨機變量的二維聯(lián)合分布函數(shù)來模擬高溫事件在日序、單日高溫強度上的發(fā)生概率。該模型通過顯著水平0.001的可靠性檢驗,模擬效果較好。5、通過模型確定各個地區(qū)高溫事件發(fā)生概率最大的日期、高溫事件發(fā)生最集中10日的概率及其起始日期與終止日期,結(jié)果表明熱害發(fā)生最頻繁的時期在7月下旬,各地10日內(nèi)高溫事件發(fā)生的概率在14.33%~26.55%之間,平均概率為19.68%。6、提出高溫風(fēng)險值的指標(biāo)來衡量各地在不同時段內(nèi)受到高溫?zé)岷Φ耐{程度。以單日高溫發(fā)生概率最大的日序為中心,分別以10日、20日和30日三個日期區(qū)間考察各地的高溫風(fēng)險情況。結(jié)果表明浙江麗水、金華,江西吉安、貴溪,湖南衡陽、湖北巴東等地高溫風(fēng)險程度最大。同時結(jié)合不同日期區(qū)間內(nèi)發(fā)生的概率,為不同風(fēng)險等級的地區(qū)提出相應(yīng)地應(yīng)對高溫?zé)岷Φ拇胧?br/>[Abstract]:With the global warming and high temperature weather, the effect of high temperature on rice is becoming more and more prominent. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is one of the main rice production areas in China. It is of great significance to study the occurrence law of high temperature heat damage in this area in order to reduce the threat of heat damage and reduce economic losses. Based on the meteorological data of 104 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1951 to 2010, the temporal and spatial distribution of high temperature heat damage in various regions is analyzed by using mathematical statistics and GIS technique. The probability model of high temperature events is built to simulate the occurrence probability of high temperature weather in different regions. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: 1. The spatial distribution of high temperature heat damage is analyzed by using the spatial prediction model with the frequency and intensity of high temperature heat damage as the calculating factors, respectively. The results show that the disaster degree of high altitude and offshore area is generally lighter. The higher latitudes are relatively light, with the central and western parts of Jiangxi and Zhejiang being the most seriously affected by heat, while the middle and high temperature damage in 6 provinces is the least serious in Jiangsu Province. The statistical analysis of high temperature heat damage in the last 50 years shows that the high temperature heat damage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has a weak tendency to increase. The frequency and intensity of heat damage at high temperature decreased first and then increased. The average frequency of heat damage reached 3.21 times / a and the average intensity reached 31 鈩，

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