【摘要】：科學(xué)地評(píng)估旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是實(shí)施旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的核心內(nèi)容和關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)。本文從旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義和物理形成過程出發(fā),提出了基于干旱事件過程的旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估原理、概念模型,形成了一整套旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估技術(shù)流程,并以位于我國東北旱災(zāi)頻發(fā)、重發(fā)中心的遼西北地區(qū)為例開展了應(yīng)用研究。研究表明,基于干旱事件過程的旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法具有較強(qiáng)的物理意義,可用于快速預(yù)估一定抗旱能力條件干旱可能造成的損失,可為抗旱指揮決策提供技術(shù)支撐,具有進(jìn)一步推廣應(yīng)用的價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:The scientific evaluation of drought risk is the core content and key link of drought risk management. Starting from the definition and physical formation process of drought risk, this paper puts forward the principle and conceptual model of drought risk assessment based on the process of drought event, and forms a complete set of drought risk assessment technical process. The study shows that the drought risk assessment method based on the drought event process has a strong physical significance and can be used to rapidly predict the possible losses caused by drought under certain drought-resistant conditions. It can provide technical support for drought-resistant command and decision-making, and has further popularization and application. Value.
【作者單位】： 中國水利水電科學(xué)研究院;水利部防洪抗旱減災(zāi)工程技術(shù)研究中心;
【基金】：中國水利水電科學(xué)研究院團(tuán)隊(duì)建設(shè)及人才培養(yǎng)類項(xiàng)目(JZ0145B752017,JZ0145B582017)
【分類號(hào)】：S423

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本文編號(hào)：2231411