【摘要】：青海省東部農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)氣候?qū)俅箨懶愿咴瓪夂?降水稀少,干旱頻發(fā),加上海拔高,氣溫低,使得當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展極受自然條件限制。農(nóng)業(yè)氣象干旱為制約青海農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的首要?dú)庀鬄?zāi)害,研究其時(shí)空變化特征,進(jìn)行干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性評估非常重要。本文以青海省東部農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)為研究區(qū),根據(jù)研究區(qū)12個(gè)氣象站長期的氣象資料與生物氣象資料,運(yùn)用最大熵模型及ArcGIS對研究區(qū)降水量、干燥度、綜合氣象干旱指數(shù)等氣象變量進(jìn)行了分析,對研究區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)氣象干旱進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性評估,得到了青海東部春小麥種植的脆弱性分布。主要研究結(jié)果如下:(1)研究區(qū)降水量呈現(xiàn)出向東南和西北方向變異發(fā)展的趨勢,整體降水量由西北向東南逐漸減少。在研究時(shí)段內(nèi),各年降水量變化范圍在295-570mm之間,呈現(xiàn)出隨時(shí)間增加不斷減少的發(fā)展趨勢。而降水量年內(nèi)分布極不均勻,降水主要集中在7月份和8月份,11月份到3月份的降水量較少。(2)研究區(qū)東南和西北位置的干燥度呈現(xiàn)出先增加后減小的趨勢,各年干燥度變化較大,數(shù)值變化范圍在1.5-3. 1之間,呈現(xiàn)出隨時(shí)間增加不斷增加的發(fā)展趨勢。從干燥度逐月變化情況來看,研究區(qū)在7月份-9月份三個(gè)月內(nèi)的干燥度相對較小,在11月份-3月份之間干燥度較大。而研究區(qū)中部的干旱強(qiáng)度要比其它地區(qū)高,南部地區(qū)發(fā)生干旱的持續(xù)時(shí)間則較長,特旱為研究區(qū)歷年日干旱能夠達(dá)到的最高程度。(3)研究區(qū)春季干旱有較大強(qiáng)度,隨著季節(jié)的推移出現(xiàn)了強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)時(shí)間逐漸增加的趨勢,研究區(qū)中部地區(qū)更易發(fā)生春季干旱事件。夏季研究區(qū)的干旱強(qiáng)度相對較小,在連續(xù)年份會出現(xiàn)大強(qiáng)度干旱事件,研究區(qū)南部更容易發(fā)生夏季干旱事件。秋季研究區(qū)的干旱強(qiáng)度呈現(xiàn)出逐年增加趨勢,干旱發(fā)生頻率較高,研究區(qū)南部更容易發(fā)生秋季干旱事件,并且干旱持續(xù)時(shí)間較長。冬季研究區(qū)的干旱強(qiáng)度較小,呈現(xiàn)出大強(qiáng)度干旱事件發(fā)生可能性逐年增加的趨勢,研究區(qū)中部更易發(fā)生冬季干旱,并且中部和南部發(fā)生干旱的持續(xù)時(shí)間較長。(4)青海省東部農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性南北差異顯著,中部地區(qū)最高。其中澤庫人均收入較低,有效灌溉面積少,加之年降水量少,干旱發(fā)生頻率高,使得當(dāng)?shù)馗珊碉L(fēng)險(xiǎn)性高;同德中度干旱發(fā)生頻率較高,且集中在農(nóng)作物生育期,而且當(dāng)?shù)貙r(nóng)業(yè)依賴性較高,所以同德農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性也很高;河南蒙古族自治縣的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性較低,且降水較少,干旱發(fā)生頻率高,所以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性較高;貴南的耕地所占比重較大,但是農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展水平較高,水澆地比較多,農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性相對較低;興海的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性較高,但是其極度和重度干旱發(fā)生頻率都比較低,使得總體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性小一些;共和農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性和危害性都很低,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性自然較低。(5)青海東部農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)春小麥的氣候脆弱性很大程度受當(dāng)?shù)氐慕邓畻l件影響。分析認(rèn)為民和、貴德和共和地區(qū)春小麥氣候脆弱性較高,應(yīng)對氣候變化的能力較差,發(fā)生農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。在春小麥的種植方面應(yīng)著重考慮春季干旱帶來的不利影響,創(chuàng)新農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉措施,提高農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水平。
[Abstract]:The climate of the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province belongs to the continental plateau climate with few precipitation, frequent drought, high altitude and low temperature, which makes the development of local agriculture extremely limited by natural conditions. Based on the long-term meteorological and biometeorological data of 12 meteorological stations in the eastern part of Qinghai Province, the meteorological variables such as precipitation, dryness and comprehensive meteorological drought index were analyzed by using maximum entropy model and ArcGIS. The agricultural meteorological drought risk in the study area was evaluated and Qinghai was obtained. The main results are as follows: (1) The precipitation varies from southeast to northwest, and the precipitation decreases gradually from northwest to southeast. During the study period, the annual precipitation varies from 295 mm to 570 mm, showing a decreasing trend with the increase of time. The annual distribution of precipitation is very uneven, mainly in July and August, and less in November and March. (2) The dryness in the southeast and northwest of the study area shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and the annual dryness changes greatly, the numerical range is between 1.5 and 3.1, showing a continuous increase with time. From the perspective of monthly variation of dryness, the dryness of the study area is relatively small in July-September, and relatively large in November-March. The intensity of drought in the middle of the study area is higher than that in other areas, while the duration of drought in the south is longer. The special drought is the calendar year drought in the study area. (3) Spring drought in the study area has a relatively strong intensity, with the gradual increase in intensity and duration of the season, the central region of the study area is more prone to spring drought events. The drought intensity in autumn is increasing year by year, the frequency of drought is higher, the southern part of the study area is more likely to occur in autumn, and the duration of drought is longer. (4) The agricultural drought risk in the eastern part of Qinghai Province is significantly different from that in the north and south, and the highest in the central part of Qinghai Province. The agricultural drought risk in Tongde is very high because of the high frequency of moderate drought in Tongde and the high dependence on agriculture. The agricultural drought vulnerability in Henan Mongolian Autonomous County is low, and the precipitation is low, and the frequency of drought is high, so the risk is high. The agricultural drought vulnerability in Xinghai is relatively high, but the frequency of extreme and severe drought is relatively low, which makes the overall risk smaller. The vulnerability and harmfulness of agricultural drought in Republican China are very low, and the risk is naturally low. The climate vulnerability of spring wheat in the eastern agricultural region is greatly affected by the local precipitation conditions. The analysis shows that the climate vulnerability of spring wheat in Minhe, Guide and Gonghe regions is relatively high, the ability to cope with climate change is poor, and the risk of agrometeorological disasters increases. Influence, innovate agricultural irrigation measures and raise the level of agricultural irrigation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S423;S512.12

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本文編號：2216809