【摘要】：利用農(nóng)業(yè)氣象試驗站作物資料及土壤資料,評價APSIM-Wheat模型在西南地區(qū)的適應(yīng)性,應(yīng)用該模型分析該地區(qū)1961—2010年冬小麥潛在和雨養(yǎng)產(chǎn)量的時空變化特征,通過逐步回歸分析揭示小麥生長季主要氣象因子對潛在產(chǎn)量和雨養(yǎng)產(chǎn)量的影響及相對貢獻率。研究結(jié)果表明:APSIM模型對該區(qū)5個常用小麥品種的模擬效果較好,模擬與實測生育期的均方根誤差(RMSE)在7.0 d以內(nèi),地上部分生物量和產(chǎn)量模擬值與實測值的歸一化均方根誤差(NRMSE)均低于25%,模型在西南地區(qū)具有較好的適應(yīng)性。1961—2010年研究區(qū)域36%的站點冬小麥生長季總輻射顯著降低,其中北部、東南部和南部中區(qū)最顯著;68%的站點生長季≥0℃有效積溫顯著增加,西部增溫顯著;30%的站點生長季平均氣溫日較差顯著減小,南部中區(qū)最顯著;全區(qū)生長季總降水大面積減少但不顯著,減少區(qū)主要位于最南端和東南部。模擬的冬小麥潛在產(chǎn)量在65%的站點呈顯著減產(chǎn)趨勢,南部中區(qū)和北部變化最明顯;雨養(yǎng)產(chǎn)量在25%的站點顯著降低,北部地區(qū)較明顯,全區(qū)減產(chǎn)趨勢較弱。減產(chǎn)顯著的站點中,生長季輻射降低、溫度升高、氣溫日較差減小對潛在產(chǎn)量降低的貢獻率分別為45%、36%和2%,對雨養(yǎng)產(chǎn)量降低的貢獻率分別為36%、39%和-8%,而降水減少對雨養(yǎng)產(chǎn)量降低的貢獻率為7%。西南冬小麥生長季輻射降低、溫度升高及降水減少共同導(dǎo)致了冬小麥潛在和雨養(yǎng)產(chǎn)量的顯著下降,而氣溫日較差的降低對冬小麥潛在和雨養(yǎng)產(chǎn)量的影響分別表現(xiàn)為負作用和正作用,整體上輻射和溫度的影響程度最大。
[Abstract]:Based on crop data and soil data of agrometeorological test station, the adaptability of APSIM-Wheat model in southwest China was evaluated, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of winter wheat potential and rain-fed yields in the region from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. Through stepwise regression analysis, the effects of main meteorological factors on potential yield and rain-fed yield of wheat in growing season and their relative contribution rate were revealed. The results showed that the simulation of five wheat varieties in this area by using the WAPSIM model was better, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated and measured growth periods was within 7.0 days. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of the simulated biomass and yield values of aboveground parts and the measured values were lower than 25, and the model had a good adaptability in southwest China. The total radiation of winter wheat growing season decreased significantly in 36% of the stations in the study area from 1961 to 2010, especially in the northern part of the study area. In the southeastern and central regions, 68% of the stations had significant increase in the effective accumulated temperature of 鈮，

本文編號：2197284