發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-02 11:04

【摘要】：長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)是中國(guó)十分重要的水稻生產(chǎn)基地,但該區(qū)域經(jīng)常受到高溫天氣的影響,使水稻生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育過(guò)程受到影響。本文利用遙感作物模型對(duì)長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)高溫?zé)岷?duì)一季稻產(chǎn)量的影響進(jìn)行研究。首先,本文利用MODIS地表反射率數(shù)據(jù)及土地利用類型數(shù)據(jù)提取了長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)的一季稻種植面積,作為空間產(chǎn)量展示的基礎(chǔ);其次利用農(nóng)業(yè)氣象觀測(cè)站點(diǎn)資料建立的關(guān)系式對(duì)已有的遙感作物模型進(jìn)行了修改;再次從時(shí)間尺度和空間尺度分析了長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)的高溫情況;最后結(jié)合修改后的模型模擬得到的產(chǎn)量和高溫分布情況,分析了高溫對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量的影響。本文的主要結(jié)論有:(1)利用MODIS地表反射率數(shù)據(jù)及土地利用類型數(shù)據(jù)提取的長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)一季稻的面積與省級(jí)尺度的統(tǒng)計(jì)面積相比較,決定系數(shù)R2達(dá)到0.99,與縣級(jí)尺度的統(tǒng)計(jì)面積相比較,決定系數(shù)R2達(dá)到0.8188,均通過(guò)了0.01的顯著性檢驗(yàn);(2)利用改進(jìn)后的遙感作物模型RS-P-YEC模擬2003-2012年的水稻單產(chǎn),模型模擬的產(chǎn)量與縣級(jí)統(tǒng)計(jì)產(chǎn)量相比較,決定系數(shù)R2達(dá)到0.5578,均方根誤差為52.64kg/ha,平均相對(duì)誤差為9%,表明改進(jìn)后的模型能更準(zhǔn)確的模擬受高溫影響下的水稻產(chǎn)量;(3)通過(guò)高溫日數(shù)的空間分布、年際變化特征、MK突變檢驗(yàn)以及利用氣候傾向率、EOF分析的模態(tài)時(shí)空變化特征可知,近30年中,長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)的高溫日數(shù)呈現(xiàn)出增加的趨勢(shì),而且不存在突變年份。整個(gè)長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)的變化趨勢(shì)基本一致,在空間上不存在著異常情況;(4)在高溫對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量分析中可知整個(gè)長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)的水稻減產(chǎn)率的各個(gè)區(qū)間比例與高溫頻次的各個(gè)區(qū)間比例有關(guān),即高溫頻次在0-5區(qū)間與減產(chǎn)率在0-10%區(qū)間對(duì)應(yīng)、高溫頻次在5-10區(qū)間與減產(chǎn)率在10-20%區(qū)間對(duì)應(yīng)、高溫頻次在10-15區(qū)間與減產(chǎn)率在20-30%區(qū)間對(duì)應(yīng)、高溫頻次在15-20區(qū)間與減產(chǎn)率在30-40%區(qū)間對(duì)應(yīng)、高溫頻次大于20與減產(chǎn)率大于40%對(duì)應(yīng)。當(dāng)高溫頻次的各個(gè)區(qū)間比例增加時(shí),對(duì)應(yīng)的減產(chǎn)率的區(qū)間比例也會(huì)增加。
[Abstract]:The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is an important rice production base in China, but the rice growth and development process is often affected by the high temperature weather in this region. In this paper, the effects of high temperature heat damage on the yield of single cropping rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were studied by using remote sensing crop model. Firstly, this paper uses MODIS surface reflectance data and land use type data to extract the rice planting area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as the basis of spatial yield display. Secondly, the existing remote sensing crop models are modified by using the relationship established by the agrometeorological observation data, and the high temperature situation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is analyzed from the time scale and the spatial scale. Finally, the effects of high temperature on rice yield were analyzed based on the simulated yield and high temperature distribution of the modified model. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the area of rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is compared with the statistical area at provincial scale, which is extracted from the MODIS surface reflectance data and land use type data. Compared with the statistical area of county scale, the coefficient of determination R2 reached 0.8188, which passed the significant test of 0.01. (2) the improved remote sensing crop model RS-P-YEC was used to simulate the rice yield from 2003 to 2012. The output simulated by the model is compared with the statistical yield at the county level. The determination coefficient R2 is 0.5578, the root mean square error is 52.64 kg / ha, and the average relative error is 9, which indicates that the improved model can more accurately simulate the rice yield under the influence of high temperature. (3) the spatial distribution of the number of days under high temperature. The characteristics of interannual variation, MK mutation test and modal temporal and spatial variation of EOF analysis show that the number of high temperature days in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River shows an increasing trend in the past 30 years, and there is no abrupt change in the past 30 years. The trend of change in the whole middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is basically the same. There is no abnormal situation in space. (4) in the analysis of rice yield at high temperature, it is known that the proportion of rice yield reduction in the whole middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is related to each interval proportion of high temperature frequency. That is, the high temperature frequency corresponds to the reduction rate in 0-10%, the high temperature frequency to 10-20%, the high temperature frequency to 20-30%, the high-temperature frequency to 30-40%. The frequency of high temperature is more than 20 and the yield of yield is more than 40%. When the proportion of each interval of high temperature frequency increases, the interval proportion of corresponding reduction rate will also increase.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：S511.41;S42;S127

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