本文選題：閩東 + 糧食產(chǎn)量　； 參考：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)資源與區(qū)劃》2016年05期

【摘要】：加強(qiáng)糧食氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析和評(píng)估工作,對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)種植結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、防災(zāi)減災(zāi)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。文章采用1949~2013年閩東9縣市區(qū)糧食產(chǎn)量資料,應(yīng)用線性擬合方法計(jì)算出糧食氣象產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)率時(shí)間序列作為分析對(duì)象,通過(guò)經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交分解(EOF)、線性傾向估計(jì)、概率分布函數(shù)擬合及檢驗(yàn)、聚類(lèi)分析等氣候統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法,分析閩東糧食氣象產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)率空間與時(shí)間變化特點(diǎn),減產(chǎn)率等級(jí)分布特征及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃。結(jié)果表明,閩東山區(qū)糧食增長(zhǎng)率總體要高過(guò)沿�？h市,增產(chǎn)趨勢(shì)更明顯些。糧食增長(zhǎng)率的空間特征值與年平均氣溫、日照時(shí)數(shù)為顯著負(fù)相關(guān),山區(qū)與沿海的氣候差異與糧食增長(zhǎng)率密切相關(guān)。9縣市糧食增長(zhǎng)率具有斜"L"型年際變化特征,可分為下降、上升、緩降、持平等4個(gè)階段。聚類(lèi)分析表明閩東糧食具有顯著增產(chǎn)、一般增產(chǎn)、一般減產(chǎn)和顯著減產(chǎn)等4類(lèi)年型,增產(chǎn)與減產(chǎn)年份發(fā)生概率分別為54.3%、45.7%。沿�？h市輕、中度減產(chǎn)發(fā)生概率要大于山區(qū)縣,而重度減產(chǎn)發(fā)生概率則相反,山區(qū)縣減產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)普遍高于沿�？h市區(qū)。閩東總體增產(chǎn)年份比減產(chǎn)年份略多,但減產(chǎn)年份發(fā)生概率也較大,農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害造成減產(chǎn)危害不可忽視,因此加強(qiáng)糧食生產(chǎn)的農(nóng)業(yè)氣象防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工作十分重要。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to strengthen the analysis and assessment of meteorological disaster risk for agricultural planting structure adjustment disaster prevention and mitigation and sustainable development. Based on the grain yield data of 9 counties in eastern Fujian from 1949 to 2013, the time series of grain meteorological yield growth rate was calculated by linear fitting method. The linear tendency was estimated by empirical orthogonal decomposition (EOF). The characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of meteorological yield growth rate of grain in eastern Fujian Province, the distribution characteristics of grade of yield reduction and risk zoning were analyzed by means of fitting and testing of probability distribution function, cluster analysis and other climatic statistical methods. The results showed that the grain growth rate in the mountain area of East Fujian was higher than that in the coastal county, and the trend of increasing production was more obvious. The spatial characteristic value of grain growth rate is negatively correlated with annual mean temperature and sunshine hours. The climate difference between mountainous area and coastal area is closely related to grain growth rate. The grain growth rate of county and city has the characteristics of oblique "L" type interannual variation, which can be classified as decreasing. Rise, slow down, flat and other four stages. Cluster analysis showed that the grain yield in East Fujian had four kinds of annual patterns, such as significant yield increase, general yield reduction and significant yield reduction, and the probability of increasing yield and reducing yield were 54.3ng and 45.7 respectively. The probability of light and moderate yield reduction in coastal counties is higher than that in mountain counties, while the probability of severe reduction is opposite. The risk of production reduction in mountain counties is generally higher than that in coastal counties and urban areas. In the east of Fujian, there are a little more years of increasing yield than those of years of reduction of production, but the probability of the year of reduction of production is also larger, and the harm caused by agricultural meteorological disasters can not be ignored. Therefore, it is very important to strengthen the work of preventing and reducing grain production.
【作者單位】： 福建省寧德市氣象局;
【基金】：福建省寧德市科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目“寧德市主要農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估技術(shù)研究”(20130004)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：S16;F326.11

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