本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估��； 參考：《華北水利水電大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在全球變暖的大趨勢下,旱災(zāi)給人類帶來的災(zāi)害越來越嚴(yán)重,干旱災(zāi)害已成為全球最普遍存在的一種自然災(zāi)害。作為全國的糧食大省,河南省受到農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的影響最為嚴(yán)重,嚴(yán)重制約著河南農(nóng)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,因此系統(tǒng)地評價(jià)河南省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害,對提高河南省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效益、糧食安全以及社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)生等有非常重大的意義。由于農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害涉及到的因素較多,受到自然、社會等多方面的綜合影響,是一個(gè)非常復(fù)雜多變的系統(tǒng),需要考慮到各方面的相互影響。旱災(zāi)主要受致災(zāi)因子、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境、承災(zāi)體以及防災(zāi)減災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等多方面的影響,因此,選取的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子是否能夠準(zhǔn)確反映旱災(zāi),能否對旱災(zāi)程度進(jìn)行定量描述,以及如何識別旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中的不確定因素是當(dāng)前農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)需要給予解決的問題。本文在系統(tǒng)分析河南省農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)影響因子的基礎(chǔ)上,對旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的形成原因進(jìn)行分析。從影響農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)四要素即致災(zāi)因子、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境、承災(zāi)體以及防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力4方面入手,以災(zāi)害學(xué)理論為基礎(chǔ),利用層次分析法、加權(quán)綜合法和自然災(zāi)害指數(shù)法,構(gòu)建了農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)體系和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型,繼而繪制河南省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃圖,根據(jù)氣象、水文、農(nóng)業(yè)和社會經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用最優(yōu)分割法和模糊信息分配法對河南省典型區(qū)進(jìn)行干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率分析,主要包括以下內(nèi)容:(1)從河南省干旱時(shí)間、空間和季節(jié)性差異來分析河南省近50年的干旱特征,從影響農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的自然因素和社會因素兩個(gè)方面分別對河南省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害的致災(zāi)機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析。(2)從影響農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的致災(zāi)因子、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境、承災(zāi)體、防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力四方面入手,選取合理的指標(biāo),建立農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型,對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值進(jìn)行量化,繪制農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃圖。河南省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)趨勢從北向南逐漸遞減,經(jīng)向上東中部大于西部,南部處于低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū),河南省中部的平頂山,北部的濟(jì)源、鶴壁等地的干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值較大,處于極高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū);河南省西部的三門峽、中部的鄭州、開封、許昌等地區(qū)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值處于高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū);河南省中部的洛陽、周口以及南部的南陽、信陽等地的旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較小處于中低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。(3)根據(jù)得到的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱指數(shù),利用最優(yōu)分割法,確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。選取新鄉(xiāng)、三門峽、南陽、鄭州、商丘作為農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率評估典型區(qū),利用模糊信息分配法對典型區(qū)的旱災(zāi)進(jìn)行模糊評價(jià),得到以下結(jié)論:南陽市發(fā)生低風(fēng)險(xiǎn),輕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)旱災(zāi)的概率較高,但發(fā)生高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、極高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)旱災(zāi)的概率較低;三門峽市和鄭州發(fā)生高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)旱災(zāi)的概率最高,發(fā)生低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)旱災(zāi)的概率最小;商丘和新鄉(xiāng)發(fā)生中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和極高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)旱災(zāi)的概率較大。
[Abstract]:Under the trend of global warming, drought has brought more and more serious disasters to human beings. Drought disaster has become the most common natural disaster in the world. As a large grain province in China, Henan Province is the most seriously affected by agricultural drought, which seriously restricts the agricultural production and economic development in Henan Province. Therefore, the evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in Henan Province is of great benefit to the agricultural production of Henan Province. Food security and the sustained occurrence of social economy are of great significance. Because the agricultural drought disaster involves many factors and is influenced by nature and society, it is a very complicated and changeable system, which needs to take into account the mutual influence of each other. Drought is mainly affected by disaster factors, disaster environment, disaster bearing body, disaster prevention and mitigation risk and so on. Therefore, whether the selected risk factors can accurately reflect the drought, whether the degree of drought can be quantitatively described, And how to identify the uncertain factors in the drought risk is a problem that needs to be solved. Based on the systematic analysis of the factors affecting agricultural drought in Henan Province, this paper analyzes the causes of the formation of drought risk. Starting with the four factors that affect the risk of agricultural drought disaster, namely, the disaster causing factors, the disaster environment, the disaster bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, based on the theory of disaster science, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the weighted synthesis method and the natural disaster index method, The agricultural drought risk assessment system and risk assessment model are constructed, and then the agricultural drought risk zoning map of Henan Province is drawn, which is based on meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socio-economic data. Using the optimal partition method and fuzzy information distribution method to analyze the risk probability of drought disaster in typical areas of Henan Province, including the following contents: 1) the drought characteristics of Henan Province in the past 50 years are analyzed from the drought time, spatial and seasonal differences. This paper analyzes the mechanism of agricultural drought disaster in Henan Province from the two aspects of natural and social factors which affect agricultural drought. It starts with the following four aspects: the factors affecting agricultural drought, disaster environment, disaster bearing body, disaster prevention and mitigation ability. Selecting reasonable indexes, establishing agricultural drought disaster risk model, quantifying the risk value, drawing agricultural drought risk zoning map. The trend of agricultural drought disaster risk in Henan Province decreases gradually from north to south, and the risk value of drought is larger in the east than in the west, in the south in the low risk area, in Pingdingshan in the middle of Henan Province, in Jiyuan in the north, in Hebi, etc. In extremely high-risk areas; in the Sanmenxia region in the west of Henan Province, in Zhengzhou, Kaifeng and Xuchang in the central part of Henan Province; in Luoyang, Zhoukou and Nanyang in the south of Henan Province; The drought risk of Xinyang and other places is small in the middle and low risk area.) according to the agricultural drought index obtained, the risk grade standard is determined by using the optimal partition method. Selecting Xinxiang, Sanmenxia, Nanyang, Zhengzhou, Shangqiu as typical areas of risk assessment of agricultural drought disaster, using fuzzy information distribution method to carry out fuzzy evaluation of drought in typical areas, the following conclusions are obtained: low risk occurs in Nanyang, The probability of light risk drought is high, but the probability of very high risk drought is low, the probability of high risk drought in Sanmenxia city and Zhengzhou is the highest, and the probability of low risk drought is the least. The probability of drought in Shangqiu and Xinxiang is high.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S423

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