本文選題：西北綠洲 + 物候性節(jié)氣��； 參考：《西北師范大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：進入21世紀以來,全球氣候變化的速度顯著加快,強降水、干旱、洪水和熱浪等極端天氣將在全球范圍內(nèi)開始增加,且以中緯度地區(qū)的氣候暖干化及其引發(fā)的干旱加劇問題最為明顯,特別是在人口眾多的發(fā)展中國家表現(xiàn)更為突出。對于氣候變化而言,尤其是氣溫的變化將會對自然生態(tài)、社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生更為深刻的影響,諸如海平面上升、冰凍圈退縮、生物多樣性受損、食物安全受到威脅等�！岸墓�(jié)氣”是中國古代專門用來指導(dǎo)、訂立農(nóng)事的一種補充歷法,其中反映物候現(xiàn)象的驚蟄、清明、小滿和芒種節(jié)氣與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)活動更是緊密相連,至今仍然對我國的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)與農(nóng)事安排具有重要指導(dǎo)意義。因此,本文選擇以西北綠洲為研究對象,利用1960~2013年中國綠洲74個氣象站點的氣溫資料及氣候傾向率、反距離加權(quán)插值和相關(guān)分析等方法,對驚蟄、清明、小滿和芒種四種節(jié)氣及期間的氣溫時空特征及其成因進行分析。本文主要結(jié)論如下:(1)從時間來看,1960~2013年,西北綠洲驚蟄、清明、小滿與芒種節(jié)氣及期間的氣溫變化規(guī)律極其相似,均表現(xiàn)為在波動中呈上升趨勢,其中春季型節(jié)氣以清明節(jié)氣及期間增暖最為顯著,其變化傾向率分別為0.64℃/10a(α=0.05)、0.42℃/10a(α=0.01),夏季型節(jié)氣以芒種節(jié)氣及期間升溫最為明顯,其變化傾向率分別為0.36℃/10a(α=0.1)、0.30℃/10a(α=0.01)。(2)從空間來看,區(qū)域差異較為明顯,總體表現(xiàn)為:新疆綠洲自南向北的降低趨勢和其他綠洲自東向西的遞減趨勢,存在一個明顯的高值區(qū)(南疆綠洲)和低值區(qū)(驚蟄節(jié)氣及期間在北疆綠洲,清明、小滿和芒種節(jié)氣及期間則在柴達木盆地綠洲)。此外,4種節(jié)氣的氣溫高值中心均出現(xiàn)在吐魯番市,低值中心僅在驚蟄出現(xiàn)在青河縣,清明時,移至大柴旦縣,清明后,則穩(wěn)定出現(xiàn)在都蘭縣,這與各綠洲所處地理位置、海拔高度、下墊面性質(zhì)、大氣環(huán)流及太陽活動等因子影響不同所致。(3)通過對物候性節(jié)氣及期間氣溫與逐日北大西洋濤動(NAO)、北極濤動(AO)、太陽黑子數(shù)(SSN)和逐月南亞夏季風(fēng)(SASM)、東亞夏季風(fēng)(EASM)指數(shù)的相關(guān)分析表明:除驚蟄期間外,在清明、小滿和芒種期間,NAO、AO與北疆、河西、河套和阿拉善綠洲的相關(guān)系數(shù)均≥0.23,且均通過了置信度水平檢驗。柴達木盆地綠洲和河套平原綠洲芒種期間氣溫分別與SASM、EASM呈明顯負相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)分別為-0.23(α=0.1)、-0.25(α=0.1),表明柴達木盆地綠洲和河套平原綠洲主要受季風(fēng)環(huán)流影響。此外,太陽活動與驚蟄節(jié)氣、清明期間的氣溫均為顯著負相關(guān)關(guān)系,與小滿節(jié)氣呈顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系,表明太陽活動也是影響各綠洲物候性節(jié)氣的主要因子。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, the speed of global climate change has accelerated significantly. Extreme weather conditions, such as heavy precipitation, drought, floods and heat waves, will begin to increase on a global scale. Especially in the developing countries with large population, the problem of climate warming and drought exacerbation in mid-latitudes is the most obvious. As far as climate change is concerned, especially the change of temperature will have a more profound impact on natural ecology and socio-economic system, such as sea level rise, freeze retreat, biodiversity loss and food security threat. "24 solar terms" is a supplementary calendar that was specially used in ancient China to guide and establish agricultural affairs. It reflects the phenomenon of phenology. The Qingming, Lesser Fullness of Grain and Grain in Beard solar terms are closely related to agricultural production activities. It still has important guiding significance to agricultural production and arrangement of agricultural affairs in our country. Therefore, this paper chooses the northwest oasis as the research object, uses the temperature data of 74 meteorological stations in China from 1960 to 2013, the climatic tendency rate, the inverse distance weighted interpolation and the correlation analysis and so on. The temporal and spatial characteristics and causes of air temperature in four solar terms and periods of Lesser Fullness of Grain and Grain in Beard were analyzed. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) from 1960 to 2013, the changes of temperature in northwest oasis, Qingming, Qingming, Lesser Fullness of Grain and Grain in Beard are very similar, and they all show an upward trend in fluctuation. In the spring solar terms, the Ching Ming Festival gas and the warming during the period were the most significant, and the change tendency rates were 0.64 鈩，

本文編號：2020647