本文選題：中國 + 畜牧業(yè)　； 參考：《農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境科學(xué)學(xué)報》2017年10期

【摘要】：為了解近年來中國畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體的排放趨勢,預(yù)測排放峰值,按照《省級溫室氣體清單編制指南(試行)》(2011)要求,根據(jù)中國2005—2015年畜禽飼養(yǎng)量,評估了中國2005—2015年畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體(GHG)的排放狀況,并以歐盟、美國2013年的人均畜產(chǎn)品蛋白占有量為衡量指標(biāo),預(yù)估了中國畜牧業(yè)達(dá)到該水平時的年份以及該年份的溫室氣體排放量,作為中國畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體排放峰值。結(jié)果表明:2005—2015年中國畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體排放量的范圍為4.06~4.52億t CO_2-eq,總體呈現(xiàn)兩次先降后升的趨勢,最低點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)在2008年,最高點(diǎn)為2009年;2009年之后,中國畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體排放總量較為平穩(wěn)。以2015年的數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)分析中國畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體排放的組成,腸道CH_4是主要排放源,所占比例為66.61%,糞便N_2O和CH_4排放比例分別為18.23%和15.16%;從畜禽種類來看,反芻動物(牛、羊)為主要來源,排放比例可達(dá)72.44%,豬和家禽所占的比例分別為19.22%和6.81%。因此,養(yǎng)牛業(yè)是中國畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體的主要排放源,其次為養(yǎng)豬業(yè)。就地域分布來看,2015年,中國畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體排放量居于前10位的省份呈現(xiàn)連片性。河南、四川、內(nèi)蒙古、山東和云南居全國前列,是施行減排的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域;新疆和西藏地區(qū)也應(yīng)作為CH_4減排的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域。對于中國畜牧業(yè)溫室氣體排放峰值而言,若要達(dá)到歐盟2013年的人均畜產(chǎn)品蛋白占有量水平,峰值出現(xiàn)在2034年,排放量為4.89億t CO_2-eq,較2015年增長8.94%,年均增長率為2.90%;若要達(dá)到美國2013年的人均畜產(chǎn)品蛋白占有量水平,排放峰值則在2043年,排放量為5.10億t CO_2-eq,較2015年增長13.53%,年均增長率為4.32%。
[Abstract]:In order to understand the trend of greenhouse gas emission from animal husbandry in China in recent years and forecast the peak emission, according to the guidelines for the preparation of Provincial greenhouse Gas inventories (trial implementation) > 2011), according to the amount of livestock and poultry raised in China from 2005 to 2015, The emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) from animal husbandry in China from 2005 to 2015 was assessed and measured by the per capita protein consumption of livestock products in the EU and the United States in 2013. The year when the animal husbandry reached this level and the greenhouse gas emission in that year were estimated as the peak value of greenhouse gas emission in the Chinese animal husbandry. The results show that the range of greenhouse gas emissions from China's livestock industry from 2005 to 2015 is 4.06 to 452 million tons of CO2-eq.As a whole, the greenhouse gas emissions of China's livestock industry decreased first and then increased, with the lowest point occurring in 2008, the highest point in 2009, and after 2009, China's animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions are relatively stable. Based on the data for 2015, the composition of greenhouse gas emissions from animal husbandry in China is analyzed. The main source of greenhouse gas emissions is intestinal CH4, accounting for 66.61%, and the proportions of N2O and CH4 emissions in feces are 18.23% and 15.16%, respectively. Sheep) is the main source, and the emission ratio is 72.44%, and the proportion of pig and poultry is 19.22% and 6.81%, respectively. Therefore, cattle industry is the main source of greenhouse gas emission, followed by pig industry. In terms of geographical distribution, the top 10 provinces with greenhouse gas emissions from China's livestock industry in 2015 presented a continuous pattern. Henan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Yunnan are among the most important regions in China, and Xinjiang and Tibet should also be the key areas for CH4 emission reduction. For China's livestock industry, the peak of greenhouse gas emissions reached in 2034 if it was to reach the EU's per capita protein share level of livestock products in 2013. The emission amount is 489 million t CO2-eq. compared with 2015, the annual growth rate is 2.900.If we want to reach the per capita protein possession level of livestock products in the United States in 2013, the emission peak is 2043, and the emission is 510 million t CO2-eq.Compared with 2015, the annual growth rate is 4.32%.
【作者單位】： 華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)動物科技學(xué)院;生豬健康養(yǎng)殖協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)資源與環(huán)境學(xué)院;
【基金】：中國清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制基金贈款項目(2012020) 公益性行業(yè)(農(nóng)業(yè))科研項目(201303145)~~
【分類號】：X713

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