本文選題：干濕變化 + 江蘇省��； 參考：《水土保持研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：利用江蘇省地區(qū)52個(gè)氣象站1961—2012年逐月降水量資料及單季稻產(chǎn)量逐年數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算了1個(gè)月尺度的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水指數(shù)(SPI),分析了研究區(qū)干濕變化與產(chǎn)量的潛在聯(lián)系。全省尺度上單季稻生育期各月SPI的趨勢(shì)檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明江蘇省6—8月3個(gè)月呈現(xiàn)變濕潤(rùn)趨勢(shì),其中8月份偏澇態(tài)勢(shì)尤為顯著;而5月、9月、10月3個(gè)月呈現(xiàn)變干旱趨勢(shì),其中9月份偏旱態(tài)勢(shì)尤為顯著。站點(diǎn)尺度上各月干濕變化趨勢(shì)與全省尺度的結(jié)果基本一致,值得關(guān)注的是8月呈顯著變濕和9月呈顯著變干的站點(diǎn)大都分布在蘇南地區(qū)。全省尺度上單季稻產(chǎn)量與生育期各月SPI的相關(guān)分析結(jié)果表明在7—10月4個(gè)月中,江蘇省氣候越濕潤(rùn),則對(duì)單季稻產(chǎn)量越不利。站點(diǎn)尺度上的結(jié)果表明江蘇省單季稻產(chǎn)量與SPI的相關(guān)性有著明顯的地域差異,其中蘇南地區(qū)的單季稻種植對(duì)氣候干濕變化更為敏感,特別是7月、8月、10月3個(gè)月偏多的雨澇事件將會(huì)顯著影響蘇南地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly precipitation data of 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province from 1961 to 2012 and the annual yield data of single cropping rice, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) of 1 month scale was calculated, and the potential relationship between dry and wet changes and yield in the study area was analyzed. On the scale of the whole province, the trend of SPI in each month of the growth period of single cropping rice in Jiangsu Province showed a trend of wetting in June and August, especially in August, but in May, September and October, the trend of drought appeared in Jiangsu Province, especially in August, and in May, in September, in October, in 3 months in October, and in May, September and October. In September, the drought situation is particularly significant. The trend of monthly dry and wet changes on the site scale is basically consistent with the results of the whole province scale. It is worth paying attention to that most of the stations with significant change of moisture in August and dry in September are mostly distributed in the south of Jiangsu Province. The results of correlation analysis between the yield of single cropping rice and the SPI of each month in the whole province indicated that the wetter climate in Jiangsu Province was the more unfavorable to the yield of single cropping rice during the 4 months of July to October. The results at site scale showed that the correlation between single cropping rice yield and SPI was significantly different in Jiangsu Province, and the planting of single cropping rice in southern Jiangsu was more sensitive to the change of dry and wet climate. Especially in July, August and October, the heavy rainfall and waterlogging events will significantly affect the yield in southern Jiangsu.
【作者單位】： 南京市環(huán)境保護(hù)科學(xué)研究院;南京信息工程大學(xué)應(yīng)用氣象學(xué)院;
【基金】：江蘇省高校自然科學(xué)研究面上項(xiàng)目(16KJB170008):江蘇省水稻氣象災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)及未來情景預(yù)估
【分類號(hào)】：S161;S511.41
，

本文編號(hào)：1980156