本文選題：DNDC模型 + SOC��； 參考：《中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：土壤有機質(zhì)是土壤肥力的重要指標之一,研究其時空演變規(guī)律對于保障糧食產(chǎn)量、提升土壤肥力具有重要的意義。本文基于華北平原衡水、昌平、辛集、鄭州、曲周5個長期定位試驗點的數(shù)據(jù),對DNDC模型在該區(qū)域的適用性進行了評價,并分析了不同施肥、耕作和秸稈管理方式對作物產(chǎn)量和土壤有機碳(SOC)含量的影響。針對各試驗點化肥配施有機肥(或秸稈)的特點,通過情景分析優(yōu)化了各個試驗點的有機無機配施比例。此外,結(jié)合RCP4.5情景下的未來氣候數(shù)據(jù),應用DNDC模型模擬了各試驗點從當前到2099年的作物產(chǎn)量和SOC變化趨勢。最后,利用京津冀平原區(qū)9個監(jiān)測點的產(chǎn)量和SOC監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)進行了區(qū)域校驗,模擬了該區(qū)1980-2014年的作物產(chǎn)量和農(nóng)田SOC的時空變化特征。全文主要結(jié)論如下：DNDC模型對5個長期定位試驗點作物產(chǎn)量和SOC含量動態(tài)變化的模擬效果總體較好,除了衡水點A1B1處理冬小麥產(chǎn)量的模型效率系數(shù)EF值為-0.11,呂平點M處理的夏玉米產(chǎn)量EF值為-0.25以外,5個長期定位試驗點冬小麥產(chǎn)量的模型模擬評價指數(shù)范圍分別為：EF值為0.07-0.94,標準化均方根誤差NRMSE值為8.8%-66.4%,一致性指數(shù)d值為0.66-0.98；夏玉米產(chǎn)量的模型模擬評價指數(shù)分別為：EF值為0.24-0.96,NRMSE值為2.6%-40.1%,d值為0.56-0.99；SOC含量的模型模擬評價指數(shù)分別為：EF值為0.09-0.98,NRMSE值為2.9%-24.2%,d值為0.45-0.98。各試驗點冬小麥產(chǎn)量、夏玉米產(chǎn)量和表層SOC含量的模擬值與實測值的回歸分析的決定系數(shù)R2分別為0.741-0.973、0.721-0.933和0.308-0.763,均達到了顯著水平,說明該模型可用來模擬華北平原5個長期定位試驗點不同耕作、施肥和秸稈還田情況下的作物產(chǎn)量和SOC含量的動態(tài)變化過程�？偸┑坎蛔兦闆r下,改變有機肥(或秸稈)替代氮肥比例的優(yōu)化結(jié)果為：在衡水試驗點,用玉米秸稈替代氮肥的最佳比例為40%,昌平用雞糞替代氮肥的最佳比例為30%,辛集用堆肥替代氮肥的最佳比例為40%,鄭州用餅肥替代氮肥的最佳比例為10%,曲周翻耕和免耕條件下用麥秸替代氮肥的最佳比例分別為40%和10%。氮肥施用量固定改變有機肥(或秸稈)配施量時,各試驗點配比優(yōu)化結(jié)果為：衡水氮肥與玉米秸稈供氮配施比例1：2(氮肥120 kg N hm-2和秸稈23762kg hm-2)為最佳配施比例；昌平化肥與雞糞配供氮施比例為1：0.33的處理(氮肥150 kg N hm-2和雞糞4000kg hm-2)為最佳；辛集化肥與堆肥供氮配施比例為1：1.33的處理(氮肥120 kg N hm-2和堆肥32000 kg hm-2)為最佳配施比例；在鄭州化肥與餅肥供氮配施比例為1：1.67的處理(氮肥120kg N hm-2和餅肥2857 kg hm-2)為最佳配施比例；在曲周試驗點,翻耕和免耕條件下,氮肥與麥秸供氮配施比例均為1：0.4(氮肥120 kg N hm-2和麥秸8727 kg hm-2)為適宜的配施比例。各試驗點在RCP4.5和當前氣候氣候情景下從2000年左右到2099年作物產(chǎn)量的模擬結(jié)果表明,在衡水試驗點,除不施肥的對照處理(CK)外,RCP4.5情景下各處理作物平均產(chǎn)量比當前氣候情景下增加了1.2%-3.3%；昌平試驗點RCP4.5情景下各處理作物平均產(chǎn)量比當前氣候情景下增加了0.7%-15.6%；辛集試驗點RCP4.5情景下各處理作物平均產(chǎn)量比當前氣候情景下增加了0.4%-10.5；鄭州試驗點,除了處理CK,RCP4.5情景下各處理作物平均產(chǎn)量比當前氣候情景下增加了4.2%-6.0%；曲周試驗點,RCP4.5情景與當前氣候情景相比,CK和單施化肥處理(F)平均產(chǎn)量減少了5.9%和5.6%,而單施有機肥處理(M)和化肥配施有機肥處理(FM)平均產(chǎn)量增加了3.7%和3.9%。由各試驗點在RCP4.5和當前氣候氣候情景下到2099年的SOC含量變化模擬結(jié)果可知,不施肥(處理CK)條件下,到2099年期間,衡水、昌平的SOC含量在RCP4.5和當前氣候情景下均呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢；辛集的SOC含量在RCP4.5情景下呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,在Basline情景下呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢；鄭州、曲周的SOC含量在在RCP4.5和當前氣候情景下均呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢。在衡水、昌平、辛集和鄭州,無論是RCP4.5還是當前氣候情景下,化肥配施有機肥(FM處理)條件下SOC含量的年增長速率最高,且RCP4.5情景下的增長速率大于當前氣候情景。1980-2014年的35年間,京津冀平原區(qū)SOC含量空間分布總體北部較高,南部較低,河北中部霸州地區(qū)SOC含量有逐漸降低的趨勢,尤其是在2000年之后比較明顯,且SOC含量較高的區(qū)域面積在逐漸縮減,而天津的武清地區(qū)SOC含量在逐漸上升,且SOC含量較高的區(qū)域面積在不斷擴大。在沒有秸稈還田的條件下,有10.7%的區(qū)域SOC含量35年來總體呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,位于河北中部地區(qū)；SOC增加量為0.4-0.8 gkg-1的區(qū)域所占比例最大,為60.3%,包括河北中部、中南部、東部地區(qū)以及北京東部和天津；SOC增加量最大(1.5-2 g kg-1)的區(qū)域位于河北省南端,僅占總面積的3.5%。而1999年10月開始秸稈還田條件下,35年來SOC含量增加量最大為5-8 gkg-1,最小為1.5-2 g kg-1,且沒有SOC含量下降的區(qū)域可見秸稈還田對于提升京津冀平原區(qū)農(nóng)田SOC含量效果顯著。1980-2014年間,京津冀平原區(qū)作物產(chǎn)量總體呈現(xiàn)東北較高,西南較低的趨勢,而作物產(chǎn)量較高的區(qū)域與SOC含量水平高的區(qū)域比較一致。
[Abstract]:Soil organic matter is one of the important indexes of soil fertility. It is of great significance to study the temporal and spatial evolution of the soil to ensure the grain yield and improve the soil fertility. Based on the data of 5 long-term location test points in Hengshui, Changping, Xinji, Zhengzhou and Quzhou, the applicability of the DNDC model in the region is evaluated and analyzed. The effects of different fertilization, tillage and straw management on crop yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) content. In view of the characteristics of the application of organic manure (or straw) in each test point, the organic and inorganic proportions of each test point were optimized through the scenario analysis. In addition, combined with the future climate data under the RCP4.5 scenario, the DNDC model was used to simulate the application. The crop yield and SOC change trend of each test point from current to 2099. Finally, the output of 9 monitoring points in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei plain area and the SOC monitoring data were checked, and the crop yield and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the farmland SOC were simulated for 1980-2014 years. The main conclusions are as follows: the DNDC model has 5 long-term positioning tests. The simulation results of the dynamic changes of crop yield and SOC content were better. The EF value of the model efficiency coefficient EF of the winter wheat yield in Hengshui point A1B1 was -0.11, and the summer maize yield EF value of Lv Ping point M was -0.25, and the model evaluation index range of the winter wheat yield of 5 long-term location test points was EF value of 0.07-0.94, The normalized mean square root error NRMSE value is 8.8%-66.4%, the consistency index D value is 0.66-0.98, the model simulation evaluation index of summer maize yield is EF value 0.24-0.96, NRMSE value 2.6%-40.1%, D value is 0.56-0.99, SOC content model simulation evaluation index is respectively. The regression analysis of the simulated and measured values of winter wheat yield, summer maize yield and surface SOC content of each test point were 0.741-0.973,0.721-0.933 and 0.308-0.763, respectively, which reached a significant level, indicating that the model could be used to simulate different tillage, fertilization and straw returning in 5 long-term location test points in North China Plain. The optimal ratio of replacing nitrogen fertilizer with organic manure (or straw) was 40%, the best proportion of replacing nitrogen fertilizer with corn straw was 40% in Hengshui test point, 30% in Changping with chicken manure instead of nitrogen fertilizer, and the best ratio of composting to nitrogen fertilizer in Xinji. For 40%, the optimum proportion of cake fertilizer to replace nitrogen fertilizer in Zhengzhou was 10%. The optimum proportion of wheat straw replacing nitrogen fertilizer under the condition of Quzhou and no tillage was 40% and 10%., respectively, when the amount of nitrogen fertilizer was fixed to change organic manure (or straw), the optimum results were as follows: the ratio of nitrogen fertilizer to nitrogen fertilizer in Hengshui and corn straw was 1:2 (nitrogen fertilizer 12). 0 kg N hm-2 and straw 23762kg hm-2) were the best proportions; the optimum proportion of nitrogen fertilizer in Changping and chicken manure was 1:0.33 (nitrogen fertilizer 150 kg N hm-2 and chicken manure 4000kg hm-2), and the ratio of nitrogen fertilizer to composting was the best proportion of 1:1.33. The optimum proportion of fertilizer and cake fertilizer in Zhengzhou (nitrogen fertilizer 120kg N hm-2 and cake fertilizer 2857 kg hm-2) was the best proportion. Under the quad test point, the ratio of nitrogen fertilizer to wheat straw was 1:0.4 (nitrogen fertilizer 120 kg N hm-2 and wheat straw 8727 kg hm-2). 4.5 and the current climate and climate scenarios from around 2000 to 2099 crop yield simulation results show that in Hengshui test point, in addition to no fertilizer control treatment (CK), under the RCP4.5 scenario, the average yield of each crop increased by 1.2%-3.3% under the current climate scenario, and the average yield of each crop under the Changping test point RCP4.5 scenario was compared to the average yield. 0.7%-15.6% was added under the pre climate scenario; the average yield of each crop under the scenario of Xinji test point RCP4.5 increased by 0.4%-10.5 under the current climate scenario; in Zhengzhou test point, the average yield of each crop was 4.2%-6.0% below the current climate scenario in addition to the treatment of CK and RCP4.5; the Quzhou test point, the RCP4.5 scene and the current situation Compared with the climate scenarios, the average yield of CK and single fertilizer treatment (F) decreased by 5.9% and 5.6%, while the average yield of single application organic fertilizer treatment (M) and chemical fertilizer treatment (FM) increased by 3.7% and 3.9%. by the simulation results of SOC content changes from each test point in RCP4.5 and the current climate climate scenario to 2099, and no fertilizer (CK) conditions were not used. In the period of 2099, the content of SOC in Hengshui and Changping decreased in both RCP4.5 and current climate scenarios; the SOC content in Xinji showed an upward trend under the RCP4.5 scenario, and in the Basline scenario, the content of SOC in the Quzhou period showed an upward trend under the RCP4.5 and the current climate scenarios. In Hengshui, Changping, In Xinji and Zhengzhou, under the condition of RCP4.5 or current climate, the annual growth rate of SOC content is the highest under the condition of chemical fertilizer combined with organic fertilizer (FM treatment), and the growth rate under the RCP4.5 scenario is greater than the 35 years of the current climate scenario.1980-2014 years. The spatial distribution of SOC content in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei plain area is higher in the north, lower in the south, in the middle of Hebei. The content of SOC in Bazhou area has been gradually decreasing, especially after 2000, and the area of high SOC content is decreasing gradually, while the SOC content of Wuqing area in Tianjin is increasing gradually, and the area of higher SOC content is expanding. In the condition of no straw returning, there are 10.7% region SOC content for 35 years. The overall decline was in the central region of Hebei; the largest proportion of SOC increased to 0.4-0.8 gkg-1, which was 60.3%, including central Hebei, South Central, Eastern and Eastern Beijing and Tianjin; the region of the largest SOC increment (1.5-2 g kg-1) was located at the southern end of Hebei Province, only the total area 3.5%. and October 1999 straw began. Under the condition of straw returning, the maximum increase of SOC content in 35 years was 5-8 gkg-1, and the minimum was 1.5-2 g kg-1, and there was no decrease in SOC content in the region that the effect of straw returning to the farmland SOC content in the plain area of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was significant.1980-2014, and the crop yield in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei plain was higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest. The areas with higher yield were more consistent with those with higher SOC content.
【學位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：S153.6
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本文編號：1976608