本文選題：氣候變化 + 降水��； 參考：《農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報(bào)》2016年09期

【摘要】：研究作物產(chǎn)量對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng),對(duì)于指導(dǎo)區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn),保障糧食安全和生態(tài)安全具有一定的理論指導(dǎo)意義。結(jié)合大田試驗(yàn)與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)模擬模型(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator,APSIM),在驗(yàn)證模擬研究區(qū)冬小麥、玉米和紫花苜蓿產(chǎn)量可靠性的基礎(chǔ)上,分析5個(gè)降水變化梯度(降水量不變、降低10%和20%、升高10%和20%)和5個(gè)氣溫變化梯度(不變、降低1.5和1℃、升高1.5和1℃)組合情景下3種作物的產(chǎn)量變化趨勢(shì)。結(jié)果表明:APSIM模型在試驗(yàn)點(diǎn)對(duì)3種作物籽粒產(chǎn)量和生物量的模擬精度較高,決定系數(shù)R2在0.80~0.93之間,歸一化均方根誤差在11.35%~22.48%之間,模型有效系數(shù)在0.53~0.91之間。冬小麥、玉米和紫花苜蓿在氣溫升高、降水量減少的情景下減產(chǎn),減產(chǎn)的最大幅度分別為38.7%、40.3%和41.8%;冬小麥、紫花苜蓿的在氣溫降低、降水量增加時(shí)增產(chǎn),增產(chǎn)的最大幅度分別為29.8%和51.7%;玉米在降水量增加、溫度不變的情景下增產(chǎn)幅度最大,為22.0%�？傊�,在研究范圍內(nèi),3種作物的產(chǎn)量隨降水的增加而增高;玉米的產(chǎn)量隨氣溫升高先增高后降低,另2種作物的產(chǎn)量隨氣溫的升高而降低;紫花苜蓿適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力最強(qiáng)。結(jié)果對(duì)明確黃土高原地區(qū)主要作物的生產(chǎn)走勢(shì),制訂農(nóng)業(yè)布局、管理措施等具有一定意義。
[Abstract]:The research on the response of crop yield to climate change has a certain theoretical significance for guiding regional agricultural production and ensuring food security and ecological security. Combined with field experiment and agricultural production system simulation model, agricultural Production Systems Simulatorus APSIMA, on the basis of verifying the reliability of winter wheat, maize and alfalfa yield in the simulated study area, five precipitation variation gradients (precipitation constant) were analyzed. The yield change trends of three crops were decreased by 10% and 20%, increased by 10% and 20%, and increased by 10% and 20%, respectively, and the gradient of temperature change (constant, 1.5 and 1 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：1942363