本文選題：鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn) + 氣象數(shù)據(jù)　； 參考：《齊魯工業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文通過(guò)氣象數(shù)據(jù)特征分析,建立數(shù)據(jù)擬合方法,在此基礎(chǔ)上開發(fā)系統(tǒng)軟件,并對(duì)實(shí)際應(yīng)用效果校驗(yàn)和評(píng)述。根據(jù)1981-2010年逐日氣壓、氣溫、相對(duì)濕度、風(fēng)速、降水量五要素氣候標(biāo)準(zhǔn)值的分布特征分析,氣壓、氣溫、相對(duì)濕度要素變化基本呈正態(tài)分布,風(fēng)速分布曲線為左偏太,降水量分布曲線大致為指數(shù)。再利用2007-2014年氣象數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算五要素相關(guān)性。結(jié)合要素分布特征和相關(guān)系數(shù)分析,氣壓、氣溫、相對(duì)濕度可直接利用線性方程,擬合鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)區(qū)域站氣象資料,風(fēng)速、降水量需做正態(tài)分布轉(zhuǎn)換。最后對(duì)擬合得到的2014年氣象數(shù)據(jù)與鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)區(qū)域站觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行校驗(yàn),只有個(gè)別月份氣象數(shù)據(jù)超出儀器標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差,說(shuō)明擬合數(shù)據(jù)可用。其中氣溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)符合最好,誤差基本在0.2℃之內(nèi),風(fēng)速和降水量擬合誤差對(duì)小觀測(cè)量影響較大。系統(tǒng)結(jié)合現(xiàn)有氣象業(yè)務(wù)開發(fā),以實(shí)用為主,保障擬合的準(zhǔn)確性。系統(tǒng)包括系統(tǒng)管理、報(bào)文收集轉(zhuǎn)換、質(zhì)量控制、數(shù)據(jù)擬合、小麥風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度計(jì)算、特色農(nóng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度計(jì)算、數(shù)據(jù)查詢、應(yīng)用工具等模塊。利用系統(tǒng)多次插補(bǔ)觀測(cè)期數(shù)據(jù)、重復(fù)計(jì)算回歸方程系數(shù),保障擬合氣象數(shù)據(jù)最接近觀測(cè)值。利用農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估系統(tǒng)計(jì)算東阿縣農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度,得到如下結(jié)論:小麥氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)按旱澇、高溫、低溫、倒伏四項(xiàng)指標(biāo)計(jì)算,小麥綜合農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度在0.47~0.51之間,各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)綜合氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度處于中、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。特色農(nóng)業(yè)油用牡丹的綜合農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度在0.25~0.65之間,處于綜合氣象災(zāi)害低到高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。課題建立了以鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為基點(diǎn)的山東省氣象擬合資料集,使氣象資料分布達(dá)到0.1°x0.1°,為氣象資料的共享提供了基礎(chǔ);并在觀測(cè)和實(shí)驗(yàn)得到氣象災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上建立部分特色農(nóng)業(yè)的氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型,為特色農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)提供了技術(shù)指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:Based on the feature analysis of meteorological data, the method of data fitting is established, and the system software is developed on the basis of which, and the practical application effect is verified and reviewed. According to the analysis of the distribution characteristics of daily air pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation from 1981 to 2010, the variation of air pressure, temperature and relative humidity is basically normal distribution, and the distribution curve of wind speed is too far left. The precipitation distribution curve is approximately exponential. The correlation of the five elements is calculated by using the meteorological data of 2007-2014. Based on the analysis of the distribution characteristics of elements and the correlation coefficient, the linear equation can be directly used to fit the meteorological data of township regional stations. The transformation of normal distribution of wind speed and precipitation is needed. Finally, the fitting meteorological data of 2014 and the observation data of township regional stations are verified. Only the meteorological data in a few months exceed the standard error of the instrument, which shows that the fitting data can be used. Among them, the temperature data is the best, the error is within 0.2 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：1923819