本文選題：開封市 + 冬小麥��； 參考：《華北水利水電大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：氣候變化極大的改變了中國農(nóng)業(yè)的氣候資源,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)活動只有與之相適應(yīng),才能更加充分合理地利用氣候資源,變不利為有利,實現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的可持續(xù)性。為確保氣候變化背景下中國的糧食安全,提高農(nóng)業(yè)放在減災(zāi)能力,及時為各級政府決策提供信息服務(wù),急切需弄清氣候變化已經(jīng)對我國農(nóng)業(yè)的影響,以及未來氣候變化可能對我國農(nóng)業(yè)的影響。本文以開封市為研究區(qū),在對開封市的氣象變化特征分析的基礎(chǔ)上,以典型作物冬小麥夏玉米為重點分析對象,重點探討了氣候變化對冬小麥和夏玉米生產(chǎn)的影響,結(jié)合開封市當?shù)氐暮禐?zāi)資料,建立開封市農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估模型,最后,建立了經(jīng)濟災(zāi)損評估模型,對開封市冬小麥、夏玉米旱災(zāi)損失情況進行評估。通過本研究對開封市旱災(zāi)進行科學(xué)高效管理提供技術(shù)支撐。本文主要包括如下內(nèi)容:(1)開封市氣候變化規(guī)律研究。選取代表性的氣候特征要素,如降水、溫度、日照時數(shù)、風(fēng)速變化、濕潤指數(shù)等,采用線性傾向估計法、累積距平曲線、滑動t檢驗法、小波分析、Mann-Kendall法對開封市氣象變化趨勢、時間序列發(fā)生突變的大致時間、突變過程、否通過突變檢驗、突變區(qū)域、周期性變化規(guī)律進行分析;結(jié)果表明,開封市的年降水量、年風(fēng)速呈下降的趨勢,年積溫、年日照時數(shù)量呈上升趨勢,年降水量存在4個明顯的周期變化規(guī)律,分別是5a、8a、15a左右和22a時間尺度。年降水量突變開始年為2012年,年積溫突變年為1993年,年日照量主要存在2個明顯的周期變化規(guī)律,分別是5a和22a時間尺度,開封地區(qū)地年風(fēng)速量,突變始年為1974年。開封市近50年中氣候以半濕潤和半干旱為主,開封市易發(fā)生秋、冬季兩季干旱極易發(fā)生秋冬連旱。(2)建立了基于時間序列的農(nóng)作物干旱氣象災(zāi)害損失評估研究。以開封市冬小麥和夏玉米為研究對象,分別利用拉格朗日插值法和直線滑動平均法實現(xiàn)對冬小麥和夏玉米災(zāi)害損失的定量評估。結(jié)果表明,利用拉格朗日插值法實現(xiàn)災(zāi)害損失的定量評估中,冬小麥的實際總產(chǎn)偏高,有的年份甚至出現(xiàn)正增長,但是所對應(yīng)年份的災(zāi)損率偏低。90年代夏玉米單產(chǎn)處于反復(fù)變化中,災(zāi)害損失量為536 kg/hm2附近波動。利用直線滑動平均法實現(xiàn)災(zāi)害損失的定量評估中,冬小麥受氣象災(zāi)害最小的年份1997為年,其相對氣象產(chǎn)量為171.72kg/hm2。夏玉米實際單產(chǎn)在2006-2013年期間夏玉米單產(chǎn)趨勢逐年穩(wěn)定。2006相對氣象產(chǎn)量百分率呈直線下降的趨勢,但夏玉米單產(chǎn)同時期的卻出現(xiàn)趨于穩(wěn)定的變化,這和夏玉米單產(chǎn)趨勢不同,隨著農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)水平的提高,氣象因素已經(jīng)不是影響夏玉米產(chǎn)量的主要因素。(3)建立了干旱風(fēng)險分析評估模型研究。首先,采用信息擴散理論,以糧食減產(chǎn)率和受災(zāi)率為旱災(zāi)影響指標,建立基于旱災(zāi)損失結(jié)果的農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險分析模型;結(jié)果表明,開封市全市農(nóng)業(yè)輕、中、重、特旱的發(fā)生頻率分別為1.5～2.2年、2.2～7年、9～18年和36年一遇。另外,運用自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險理論、層次分析法、Fisher最優(yōu)分割法、GIS技術(shù)等,從危險性、暴露性、脆弱性及抗旱能力四方面建立了基于旱災(zāi)形成機理的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估指標體系和評估模型,結(jié)果表明,開封市城區(qū)和杞縣處在旱災(zāi)低風(fēng)險區(qū),尉氏縣處在次低風(fēng)險區(qū),蘭考縣處在中風(fēng)險區(qū),開封縣和通許縣處在高風(fēng)險區(qū)。最后,考慮資料收集的真實性和完整性,并結(jié)合開封地區(qū)的實際情況,選取評價指標,建立開封地區(qū)經(jīng)濟災(zāi)損評估模型。結(jié)果表明,開封市各區(qū)冬小麥經(jīng)濟損失在10-25元/畝之間,開封市各區(qū)夏玉米經(jīng)濟損失在15-41元/畝之間。
[Abstract]:The climate change has greatly changed the climate resources of China's agriculture. Only the agricultural production activities can be used to make full and rational use of climate resources, disadvantageous to the advantage, to achieve the sustainability of agricultural production. In order to ensure the food security of China under the background of climate change, improve the ability of agriculture in disaster reduction and timely administration at all levels. It is urgent to understand the influence of climate change on our agriculture and the influence of climate change on our agriculture. This paper takes Kaifeng City as the research area, and on the basis of the analysis of the characteristics of the meteorological change in Kaifeng City, focuses on the analysis of the typical crop winter wheat and summer corn. The influence of climate change on winter wheat and summer maize production, combined with the local drought information in Kaifeng City, established the risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster in Kaifeng City. Finally, the economic disaster assessment model was established, and the drought disaster of winter wheat and summer maize in Kaifeng City was evaluated. This article mainly provides technical support. This article mainly includes the following contents: (1) study on the climate change law of Kaifeng City. Select representative climatic characteristics, such as precipitation, temperature, sunshine time, wind speed change, wetting index, use linear tendency estimation method, cumulative anomaly curve, sliding t test, wavelet analysis, and Mann-Kendall method to change the weather change of Kaifeng City The general time and the mutation process of the time series are analyzed by the mutation test, the mutation region and the periodic variation law. The results show that the annual precipitation in Kaifeng City has a downward trend of annual wind speed, the annual accumulated temperature, the annual sunshine number is on the rise, and the annual precipitation has 4 obvious periodic variation laws, respectively. It is the time scale of 5A, 8a, 15a and 22a. The annual precipitation catastrophe begins in 2012 and the annual accumulated temperature is in 1993. There are 2 obvious periodic changes in the annual illumination, respectively, the time scale of 5A and 22a, the annual wind speed in Kaifeng area, and the beginning of the catastrophe in 1974. The climate in Kaifeng City is mainly semi humid and semi-arid in the last 50 years. Autumn is easy to occur in Kaifeng and drought and winter in autumn and winter in the two quarter of winter. (2) a study on the loss assessment of drought meteorological disasters based on time series is set up. The winter wheat and summer corn in Kaifeng City are taken as the research object, and the loss of winter wheat and summer corn by the Lagrange interpolation method and the straight line average method are respectively used to determine the loss of winter wheat and summer corn. The results show that in the quantitative assessment of disaster loss by Lagrange interpolation, the actual total yield of winter wheat is high, and some years even appear positive growth, but the disaster loss rate of the corresponding year is low in.90's summer maize yield and the loss amount is fluctuating near 536 kg/hm2. In the quantitative assessment of disaster loss, winter wheat was 1997 year with the smallest meteorological disaster, and its relative meteorological yield was 171.72kg/hm2. summer maize production in 2006-2013 years. The trend of summer maize yield per year was steady and the relative meteorological yield percentage decreased in a straight line, but the summer maize yield in the same period was out of the same period. There is a trend of stable change, which is different from the trend of summer maize yield. With the improvement of agricultural production technology, the meteorological factors are not the main factors affecting the summer maize yield. (3) the drought risk analysis and evaluation model is established. Firstly, the information diffusion theory is adopted to establish the grain yield rate and the disaster rate as the index of drought impact. The agricultural drought risk analysis model based on the drought loss results shows that the frequency of agricultural light, middle, heavy, and special drought in Kaifeng City is 1.5 to 2.2 years, 2.2 to 7 years, 9~18 years and 36 years, respectively. In addition, the use of natural disaster risk theory, analytic hierarchy process, Fisher optimal segmentation method, GIS technology, etc., from risk, exposure, crisp, etc. In the four aspects of weakness and drought resistance, the index system and evaluation model of drought disaster risk assessment based on drought formation mechanism are established. The results show that Kaifeng City and Qixian County are in the low risk area of drought disaster, Weishi county is in the lower risk area, Lankao County is in the middle risk area, Kaifeng County and Tongxu County are in high risk area. Finally, consideration is given. The authenticity and integrity of the data collection were collected, and the evaluation index was selected to establish the economic disaster damage assessment model in Kaifeng area. The results showed that the economic loss of Winter Wheat in Kaifeng City was between 10-25 yuan / mu and the economic losses of Summer Maize in Kaifeng City were 15-41 yuan per mu.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：S423

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