本文選題：種植模式 + 生態(tài)適宜度　； 參考：《東華理工大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：2000年后全球氣候變化的趨勢越發(fā)顯著,對于與生態(tài)環(huán)境息息相關(guān)的農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域來說影響巨大。然而,由于溫度的升降、降雨量分布格局的變化在各地區(qū)不盡相同,因此,新形勢下因地制宜地改變、調(diào)整傳統(tǒng)種植模式以適應(yīng)特殊區(qū)域氣候狀況迫在眉睫。本文基于前人的研究成果,構(gòu)建生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會適宜度模型,依托GIS平臺作為數(shù)據(jù)分析、處理工具,在全國范圍內(nèi)篩選高產(chǎn)高效農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)的黑龍江和水資源緊缺區(qū)的河北作為研究對象,并充分考慮種植模式調(diào)整的地域性特點,開展了種植模式生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會適宜度研究,得到如下研究成果:(1)基于模糊數(shù)學(xué)方法構(gòu)建生態(tài)適宜度,能較好地貼合作物實際生長需要;選取凈產(chǎn)值和純收益作為經(jīng)濟(jì)適宜度衡量指標(biāo)能快速比較效益高低;采用專家分析篩選主導(dǎo)社會適宜度評判因子能定性分析新模式推廣價值及市場前景。(2)黑龍江氣候變暖顯著影響該區(qū)年積溫,根據(jù)生育期及無霜期天數(shù),選取早、中熟性大麥和蕎麥品種構(gòu)成二熟制模式,結(jié)合模型顯示雨養(yǎng)條件下大麥-蕎麥二熟制在東部沿海的虎林、雞西地區(qū)已可推廣,灌溉后最適宜區(qū)面積擴(kuò)大近3倍;同時二熟制不僅利于該區(qū)農(nóng)戶增產(chǎn)增收,對優(yōu)化勞動力布局、豐富種植結(jié)構(gòu)等方面也有顯著優(yōu)勢,因此黑龍江部分地區(qū)已具備發(fā)展二熟制條件。(3)河北由于水資源緊缺急需調(diào)整當(dāng)前農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),結(jié)合遙感數(shù)據(jù)GLASS LAI,了解河北農(nóng)業(yè)一熟、二熟制并存,試探討玉米一熟制替代小麥-玉米二熟制適宜程度及對緩解用水壓力的影響。選取中晚熟玉米品種,結(jié)合模型發(fā)現(xiàn)雨養(yǎng)條件下生態(tài)最適宜區(qū)主要分布在北部承德、唐山、秦皇島及北京、天津周邊區(qū)域,經(jīng)濟(jì)效益低于小麥-玉米二熟制,但節(jié)水量明顯高于后者,有推廣前景。增加灌溉能顯著提高整體適宜度,但降低了經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,增加了用水量,不考慮在灌溉區(qū)推廣。以上結(jié)果顯示氣候變化對我國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的影響利弊并存,結(jié)合生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會適宜度研究,為區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整提出切實可行的應(yīng)對方案。本文主要采用Arc GIS柵格插值及疊加分析功能,并充分考慮在強(qiáng)化氣候改變條件下帶來的優(yōu)勢,對削弱風(fēng)險方面有積極的作用,使農(nóng)業(yè)效益最大化。
[Abstract]:Since 2000, the trend of global climate change has become more and more significant, which has a great impact on the agricultural field which is closely related to the ecological environment. However, due to the rise and fall of temperature, the change of rainfall distribution pattern is different in different regions. Therefore, it is urgent to adjust the traditional planting pattern to adapt to the climate situation in special regions under the new situation. Based on the previous research results, this paper constructs the ecological, economic and social suitability model, relying on the GIS platform as a data analysis, processing tools, In order to study the ecological, economic and social suitability of planting pattern, Heilongjiang province and Hebei province, which have high yield and high efficiency agricultural area, are selected as the research objects in the whole country, and the regional characteristics of planting pattern adjustment are taken into account. The following research results are obtained: (1) constructing ecological suitability based on fuzzy mathematics method can better meet the actual growth needs of crops, and selecting net output value and net income as indicators of economic suitability can quickly compare benefits; Using expert analysis to screen leading social suitability evaluation factors can qualitatively analyze the new model promotion value and market prospects.) the climate warming in Heilongjiang significantly affects the annual accumulated temperature. According to the days of growth period and frost-free period, early selection can be made. Middle maturity barley and buckwheat varieties constitute two-cropping model. Combined with the model, it shows that barley buckwheat two-cropping system can be popularized in the eastern coastal area of Hulin under the condition of rain, and the area of the most suitable area after irrigation has been expanded nearly three times. At the same time, the two-cropping system is not only conducive to increasing production and income of farmers in this area, but also has significant advantages in optimizing the distribution of labor force, enriching the planting structure, and so on. Therefore, in some areas of Heilongjiang Province, the conditions for the development of the two-cropping system have already been met. Because of the shortage of water resources, Hebei is in urgent need of readjusting the current agricultural structure. Combining with the remote sensing data GLASS Lai, we can understand the coexistence of the first ripeness and the two-ripening system in Hebei. This paper discusses the suitable degree of replacing wheat-corn double cropping system with one-cropping system and its effect on relieving water pressure. In combination with the model, it was found that the most suitable ecological areas were mainly distributed in Chengde, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao and the surrounding areas of Beijing and Tianjin in northern Chengde, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao and Tianjin, and the economic benefit was lower than that in wheat-maize two-cropping system. But the water saving amount is obviously higher than the latter, which has the prospect of popularizing. The increase of irrigation can increase the overall suitability, but reduce the economic benefit and increase the water consumption, so it is not considered to be popularized in the irrigation area. The above results show that the impacts of climate change on China's agricultural production have both advantages and disadvantages. Combining with the study of ecological, economic and social suitability, the paper puts forward a feasible plan for the adjustment of regional agricultural structure. This paper mainly adopts the functions of Arc GIS grid interpolation and superposition analysis, and fully considers the advantages brought by the enhancement of climate change, which has a positive effect on weakening the risk and maximizes the agricultural benefit.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：S181;F326.1

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