本文選題：氣溫 + 降雨量　； 參考：《長江流域資源與環(huán)境》2017年01期

【摘要】：當(dāng)前全球氣候變暖大背景下,氣溫和降雨量的交互作用引致農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害頻發(fā),給農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)造成破壞性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失,因此探討氣溫與降雨量之間的動(dòng)態(tài)相依關(guān)系尤為重要。搜集安徽省24個(gè)氣象觀測站1980~2014年的氣溫與降雨量日數(shù)據(jù),對原始數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行矩平均處理,使兩組數(shù)據(jù)列滿足獨(dú)立同分布的要求。采用非參數(shù)核估計(jì)的方法確定氣溫與降雨量的邊緣分布。根據(jù)降雨量和氣溫的均勻分布散點(diǎn)圖和頻數(shù)分布直方圖可知,安徽省氣溫和降雨量之間呈現(xiàn)一定程度的負(fù)相依關(guān)系,即圖形中表現(xiàn)出氣溫與降雨量的上下尾之間的對稱性。綜上分析,選擇可以刻畫兩個(gè)變量具有上下尾對稱關(guān)系的Copula函數(shù)對氣溫與降雨量的相依關(guān)系進(jìn)行擬合,最終在平方歐式距離最小的原則下選定二元t-Copula函數(shù)做出氣溫與降雨量之間的聯(lián)合概率密度函數(shù)圖。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):1據(jù)安徽省氣溫與降雨量聯(lián)合概率分布可知,當(dāng)降雨量上升時(shí),氣溫下降;或氣溫上升時(shí),降雨量會下降,氣溫與降雨量之間呈現(xiàn)為中等負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系( 0.280)。2極值相關(guān)性方面,從t-Copula密度函數(shù)圖和上下尾相關(guān)系數(shù)看,安徽省氣溫與降雨量在極值方面具有較為明顯的相依關(guān)系,表現(xiàn)為當(dāng)氣溫和降雨量超過正常范疇時(shí),二者相依關(guān)系從負(fù)相關(guān)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)檎嚓P(guān),此現(xiàn)象多出現(xiàn)在極端氣候條件下,例如極端高溫和大暴雨時(shí)氣溫與降雨量的正相依性。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global warming, the interaction of temperature and rainfall leads to frequent agrometeorological disasters, which results in destructive risk loss of agricultural production. Therefore, it is important to explore the dynamic dependence between temperature and rainfall. The daily temperature and rainfall data of 24 meteorological observation stations in Anhui Province from 1980 to 2014 were collected, and the raw data were processed by moment average, so that the two sets of data columns could meet the requirements of independent and same distribution. The nonparametric kernel estimation method is used to determine the marginal distribution of temperature and rainfall. According to the uniform distribution of precipitation and temperature and the histogram of frequency distribution, it can be seen that there is a negative correlation between temperature and rainfall in Anhui Province, that is, the symmetry between temperature and rainfall is shown in the graph. On the basis of the above analysis, the Copula function, which can describe the symmetries between the two variables, is selected to fit the dependent relationship between air temperature and rainfall. Finally, under the principle of least square Euclidean distance, the binary t-Copula function is selected to make the joint probability density function diagram between temperature and rainfall. The results show that according to the combined probability distribution of temperature and rainfall in Anhui Province, when the rainfall rises, the temperature decreases; or when the temperature rises, the rainfall drops. There is a moderate negative correlation between air temperature and rainfall (0.280n.2 extreme value correlation). From the t-Copula density function diagram and the correlation coefficient between upper and lower tail, the temperature and rainfall in Anhui Province have obvious dependence on extreme value. When the temperature and rainfall exceed the normal category, the dependence of temperature and rainfall changes from negative to positive. This phenomenon often occurs in extreme climatic conditions, such as extreme high temperature and heavy rain, the positive dependence of temperature and rainfall.
【作者單位】： 華東師范大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;華東師范大學(xué)地理信息科學(xué)教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(71403088) 國家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目(13&ZD161) 高等學(xué)校學(xué)科創(chuàng)新引智計(jì)劃(B14019)~~
【分類號】：S161

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李健倫,方兆本,魯煒,李紅星;Copula方法與相依違約研究[J];運(yùn)籌與管理;2005年03期

2 單國莉,陳東峰;一種確定最優(yōu)Copula的方法及應(yīng)用[J];山東大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(理學(xué)版);2005年04期

3 羅俊鵬;;基于Copula的金融市場的相關(guān)結(jié)構(gòu)分析[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2006年16期

4 李霞;曾霞;侯兵;;copula的構(gòu)造以及copula之間關(guān)系的研究[J];商丘師范學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2006年05期

5 孫志賓;;混合Copula模型在中國股市的應(yīng)用[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實(shí)踐與認(rèn)識;2007年20期

6 李娟;戴洪德;劉全輝;;幾種Copula函數(shù)在滬深股市相關(guān)性建模中的應(yīng)用[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實(shí)踐與認(rèn)識;2007年24期

7 許建國;杜子平;;非參數(shù)Bernstein Copula理論及其相關(guān)性研究[J];工業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2009年04期

8 杜子平;閆鵬;張勇;;基于“藤”結(jié)構(gòu)的高維動(dòng)態(tài)Copula的構(gòu)建[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實(shí)踐與認(rèn)識;2009年10期

9 王s，

本文編號：1830423