發(fā)布時間：2018-05-01 13:03

  本文選題：崩崗侵蝕 + 風險評估��； 參考：《中國水土保持科學》2017年06期

【摘要】：崩崗侵蝕是我國南方水土流失的一種特殊類型,關于崩崗的風險評估方面的研究較少。選擇江西省作為研究區(qū)域,通過相關因子分析,篩選風險評估指標,利用Logistic模型計算崩崗發(fā)生風險,在此基礎上采用專家打分法,計算崩崗危害風險,將崩崗發(fā)生風險與崩崗危害風險疊加,即可得到崩崗侵蝕風險,以此探討區(qū)域尺度崩崗侵蝕風險評估的可行性。結果顯示,江西省南部和西部崩崗發(fā)生風險較高,東部、北部和中部相對較低。全省崩崗危害風險總體較輕微,相對較高的危害風險呈零星分布。綜合發(fā)生風險和危害風險后,江西省崩崗侵蝕以低中風險為主,占全省總面積的95%;其中,較低及以下風險占全省總面積的68%。較低及以下風險主要分布鄱陽湖周邊區(qū)域,風險防控措施應以預防保護為主。中風險及以上風險主要分布在江西省南部和西部,宜采取預防保護與綜合治理并重的風險防控措施。研究表明,Logistic模型對崩崗侵蝕發(fā)生風險評估是可行的。
[Abstract]:Collapse erosion is a special type of soil erosion in southern China. Jiangxi Province is selected as the research area. The risk assessment index is screened through the relevant factor analysis, and the risk of collapse is calculated by using Logistic model. On the basis of this, the risk of collapse is calculated by using the expert scoring method. The risk of collapse erosion can be obtained by superposing the risk of collapse and the hazard of collapse, and the feasibility of risk assessment of collapse erosion on regional scale can be discussed. The results showed that the risk of collapse occurred in the south and west of Jiangxi Province was higher than that in the east, north and middle of Jiangxi Province. The risk of collapse in the whole province is relatively slight, and the relatively high risk is scattered. After the comprehensive occurrence of risk and hazard risk, the main risk of collapse erosion in Jiangxi Province is low and medium risk, which accounts for 95% of the total area of the province, among which, the lower risk and the following risk account for 68% of the total area of the province. The lower and lower risks are mainly distributed in the area around Poyang Lake, and the risk prevention and control measures should be mainly prevention and protection. The middle risk and the above risk are mainly distributed in the south and west of Jiangxi Province. The results show that logistic model is feasible for risk assessment of collapse erosion.
【作者單位】： 長江科學院水土保持研究所;
【基金】：水利部公益性行業(yè)科研專項項目“崩崗侵蝕風險評估及分類防控關鍵技術研究”(201501047) 中央級公益性科研院所基本科研業(yè)務費“南方崩崗發(fā)育風險評估研究”(CKSF2016262/TB)
【分類號】：S157.1
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本文編號：1829457