莎車巴旦姆物候期對(duì)氣象條件的響應(yīng)及花期預(yù)測(cè)模型
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-13 19:19
本文選題:巴旦姆 + 物候期; 參考:《應(yīng)用生態(tài)學(xué)報(bào)》2016年02期
【摘要】:利用莎車縣農(nóng)業(yè)氣象試驗(yàn)站2008—2013年巴旦姆物候期和同期氣象觀測(cè)資料,分析了巴旦姆物候期的變化特征以及氣溫、日照時(shí)數(shù)對(duì)物候期的影響.結(jié)果表明:巴旦姆花期之前的物候期始日之間均呈正相關(guān),與花期之后的物候期始日的相關(guān)性大多較小,花芽膨大早遲與休眠期、生長(zhǎng)期天數(shù)分別呈極顯著的正相關(guān)和負(fù)相關(guān).以果實(shí)成熟期為界,氣溫對(duì)之前、之后物候期間隔日數(shù)的影響分別為負(fù)相關(guān)和正相關(guān),日照時(shí)數(shù)與物候期間隔日數(shù)大多為正相關(guān).果實(shí)成熟-葉變色始期間隔日數(shù)對(duì)平均最高氣溫以及花序出現(xiàn)-開(kāi)花末期、葉變色始期-落葉末期間隔日數(shù)對(duì)日照時(shí)數(shù)存在明顯的響應(yīng).當(dāng)巴旦姆休眠期符合日平均氣溫-3.0~-7.5℃的天數(shù)滿30 d后,經(jīng)過(guò)17~28 d將進(jìn)入花芽萌動(dòng)期.花芽萌動(dòng)期、開(kāi)花始期、葉變色始期和落葉末期的始日分別與首個(gè)候平均氣溫≥4℃且候平均最高氣溫≥12℃、春季侯平均氣溫≥14℃且侯平均最高氣溫≥22℃、秋季首個(gè)侯平均氣溫≤10℃且侯平均最高氣溫≤18℃和冬季首個(gè)侯平均氣溫≤1.9℃的候序一一對(duì)應(yīng).利用偏最小二乘法回歸分析,建立巴旦姆盛花期始日預(yù)測(cè)模型,經(jīng)過(guò)檢驗(yàn)?zāi)P托Ч^好.
[Abstract]:Based on the meteorological observation data of Badam period and the same period from 2008 to 2013, the variation characteristics of Badam phenology and the effects of temperature and sunshine hours on the phenological period were analyzed by using the meteorological observation data of Shaqa County Agrometeorological Test Station from 2008 to 2013.The results showed that there was a positive correlation between the beginning of phenological period before anthesis and a small correlation with the beginning day of phenological period after flowering. There was a very significant positive correlation and negative correlation between flower bud enlargement and dormancy period and days of growth period respectively.The effect of temperature on the number of days before and after the phenological period was negatively and positively correlated respectively, and the sunshine hours were mostly positively correlated with the number of alternate days during the phenological period.The number of alternate days during fruit maturation and leaf discoloration was significantly related to the mean maximum temperature, the appearance of inflorescence and the end of flowering, and the number of days between the beginning of leaf discoloration and the end of deciduous leaves to the sunshine hours.When the dormancy period of Badam was in accordance with the daily mean temperature of -3.0 ~ 7.5 鈩,
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