本文選題：西北干旱區(qū) + 農(nóng)地利用��； 參考：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)資源與區(qū)劃》2017年04期

【摘要】：[目的]試圖找出我國(guó)西北干旱區(qū)農(nóng)地利用碳排放與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,以期為制定該地區(qū)農(nóng)地利用碳減排政策提供理論支撐。[方法]測(cè)算西北干旱區(qū)"九五"至"十二五"期間農(nóng)地利用的碳排放量,采用"Tapio脫鉤"理論探究農(nóng)地利用碳排放與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的響應(yīng)關(guān)系,并運(yùn)用LMDI模型分析了農(nóng)地利用碳排放的影響因素,繼而對(duì)農(nóng)地利用碳排放零增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。[結(jié)果]西北干旱區(qū)農(nóng)地碳排放呈現(xiàn)"快速增長(zhǎng)-緩慢增長(zhǎng)"兩階段變化特征,其碳排放強(qiáng)度變化軌跡與此基本一致;農(nóng)地利用碳排放與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間響應(yīng)關(guān)系顯著,以弱脫鉤效應(yīng)為主;農(nóng)地利用碳排放的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子中,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率因素、勞動(dòng)力因素對(duì)農(nóng)地利用碳減排的成效最為明顯,農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)因素對(duì)農(nóng)地利用碳減排略有促進(jìn)作用,而農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展因素是促進(jìn)碳排放的主要因素。[結(jié)論]西北干旱區(qū)有望在2017年實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)地利用碳排放的零增長(zhǎng),雖在短期內(nèi)可能實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)地利用碳排放的零增長(zhǎng),但農(nóng)業(yè)收入在農(nóng)戶家庭收入中仍占較大比重,農(nóng)業(yè)碳減排壓力依然較大。
[Abstract]:[objective] to find out the relationship between carbon emissions from agricultural land use and agricultural economic growth in arid areas of northwest China, in order to provide theoretical support for the formulation of carbon abatement policies for farmland use in this region.[methods] carbon emissions from farmland use in Northwest Arid region during the period of "Ninth Five-Year Plan" to "12th Five-Year Plan" were calculated, and the response relationship between carbon emissions from farmland use and agricultural economic growth was explored by using "Tapio decoupling" theory.LMDI model is used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission in farmland, and then the time node of zero increase of carbon emission in farmland is forecasted.[results] the carbon emissions of agricultural land in the arid region of northwest China showed the characteristics of "rapid growth and slow growth", and the change track of carbon emission intensity was basically consistent with this, and the response relationship between carbon emissions from farmland use and agricultural economic growth was significant.Among the driving factors of carbon emission in farmland utilization, the factors of agricultural production efficiency and labor force have the most obvious effect on carbon abatement of farmland utilization, and the agricultural industrial structure factor has a little promoting effect on carbon abatement of farmland utilization.And agricultural economy development factor is the main factor that promotes carbon emission.[conclusion] the northwest arid region is expected to achieve zero increase in carbon emissions from farmland use in 2017. Although it may be possible to achieve zero increase in carbon emissions from agricultural land use in the short term, agricultural income still accounts for a large proportion of household income.Agricultural carbon abatement pressure is still greater.
【作者單位】： 兵團(tuán)屯墾經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;石河子大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;江南大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“新疆棉田白色污染治理機(jī)制研究”(71563040) 新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)普通高校人文社科重點(diǎn)研究基地項(xiàng)目“新疆棉田白色污染綜合治理效果評(píng)價(jià)及對(duì)策研究”(XJEDU020215C05) 石河子大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化研究中心項(xiàng)目“棉農(nóng)對(duì)農(nóng)田白色污染治理的認(rèn)知程度及支付意愿調(diào)查研究”(NYXDH1503);“石河子大學(xué)農(nóng)林經(jīng)濟(jì)管理博士后流動(dòng)站”資助
【分類號(hào)】：F321.1;F327;X71

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