本文選題：農(nóng)田土壤 + 土壤有機(jī)碳��； 參考：《中國生態(tài)農(nóng)業(yè)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年12期

【摘要】：以位于川東平行嶺谷的典型縣——墊江縣為研究對(duì)象,探討在特定氣候模式下未來30 a研究區(qū)農(nóng)田土壤有機(jī)碳(SOC)及其動(dòng)態(tài)變化,為研究區(qū)未來耕地可持續(xù)利用與管理提供數(shù)據(jù)支持和科學(xué)依據(jù)。利用生物地球化學(xué)模型DNDC,選取IPCC AR4報(bào)告中的BCCR_BCM 2.0的B1模式,在基于研究區(qū)土壤性質(zhì)和農(nóng)業(yè)管理制度等建立的GIS區(qū)域數(shù)據(jù)庫的支持下,模擬研究區(qū)2011—2041年SOC動(dòng)態(tài)變化。結(jié)果表明:1)DNDC模型能夠較好地模擬特定氣候條件下SOC及其動(dòng)態(tài)變化,模擬值和觀測值的相關(guān)系數(shù)r為0.981,達(dá)到0.01水平下的極顯著相關(guān)關(guān)系;模擬值和觀測值的RMSE值為16%,模擬結(jié)果較好。2)未來30 a研究區(qū)農(nóng)田0~20 cm土層SOC密度和儲(chǔ)量均呈顯著增加態(tài)勢,單位面積碳增量2 637.07~8 091.55 kg(C)·hm~(-2),增幅為10%~34%,新增固碳量2.7×10~5~8.3×10~5 t,年均增速87.9~269.7 kg(C)·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)。3)未來30 a川東平行區(qū)縣域農(nóng)田土壤總體呈持續(xù)碳增匯狀態(tài),研究區(qū)固碳、丟碳以及相對(duì)平衡三者間的差異將逐漸凸顯。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a typical county, Dianjiang County, located in the parallel Ridge Valley of East Sichuan Province, was used to study the soil organic carbon (SOC) and its dynamic changes in the future 30 years under a specific climate model.To provide data support and scientific basis for the future sustainable use and management of cultivated land in the study area.Using the biogeochemical model DNC, the B1 model of BCCR_BCM 2.0 in the IPCC AR4 report was selected to simulate the SOC dynamic changes in the study area from 2011 to 2041 with the support of the GIS regional database based on the soil properties and agricultural management system of the study area.The results show that the SOC and its dynamic change can be well simulated by the 1: 1 DNDC model. The correlation coefficient between the simulated value and the observed value is 0.981, which is very significant at the level of 0. 01.The RMSE value of simulated value and observed value is 16, the result of simulation is better. 2) in the next 30 years, the density and reserve of SOC in 0 ~ 20 cm soil layer of farmland in the study area will increase significantly.The difference between carbon loss and relative balance will gradually become prominent.
【作者單位】： 重慶師范大學(xué)地理與旅游學(xué)院/三峽庫區(qū)地表過程與環(huán)境遙感重慶市重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：重慶市基礎(chǔ)科學(xué)與前沿技術(shù)研究專項(xiàng)(cstc2017jcyj B0317)資助~~
【分類號(hào)】：S153.6

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