本文選題：土壤濕度　切入點：資料對比　出處：《南京信息工程大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國是世界上遭受氣象災害影響最為嚴重的國家之一,開展各類極端氣候的研究和極端氣候預測具有重要意義,夏季極端氣溫是我國常見的氣象災害,國內對夏季氣溫預測主要考慮的因子為海表面溫度和環(huán)流因子,利用土壤濕度建立我國夏季極端氣溫預測模型的研究還較少,土壤濕度能否提高中國夏季極端氣溫的預測準確率還需進一步研究。首先,本文基于1992～2010年全國778個農(nóng)業(yè)氣象站土壤濕度觀測資料、ERA_interim、JRA55、NCEP-DOER2和20CR土壤濕度再分析資料,通過平均差值、相關系數(shù)、差值標準差、標準差比四個參數(shù),利用Brunke排名方法和EOF分析,對四套土壤濕度再分析資料在中國西北東部—華北—江淮區(qū)域的適用性進行了分析;其次,利用中國587站日最高、最低氣溫觀測資料、月平均的ERA_interim 土壤濕度再分析資料及擴展重建的海表面溫度(ERSST)資料,對極端氣溫指數(shù)進行了定義,利用變形的典型相關分析(BP-CCA)和集合典型相關分析方法(ECC),分析了 1979～2009年我國夏季極端氣溫與前期(春、前冬)土壤濕度、海表面溫度間的線性聯(lián)系,建立了中國夏季極端氣溫預測模型,并對獨立樣本檢驗的效果進行了評估;最后合成分析和相關性分析,對春季土壤濕度異常對中國東北、江淮地區(qū)夏季極端高溫的影響的可能機制進行了初步分析,得到以下結論:(1)不同季節(jié)的平均偏差空間分布上,JRA55資料同觀測數(shù)據(jù)的平均偏差在±0.08m3.m-3之間,春、夏季西北東部JRA55 土壤濕度偏小,ERA_interim、NCEP-DOE R2、20CR資料較觀測數(shù)據(jù)偏濕,華北南部、江淮地區(qū)平均偏差小于西北東部、華北北部。在年際變化上,各個季節(jié)ERA_interim資料同觀測資料最為接近,能穩(wěn)定地再現(xiàn)西北東部、華北、江淮地區(qū)土壤濕度干濕變化趨勢,反映出重要的旱澇年。整體而言,四套再分析資料中ERA_interim資料同觀測資料接近,JRA55、NCEP-DOER2資料次之,20CR資料最差。(2)同中國夏季極端氣溫聯(lián)系密切的前期海表面溫度異常的空間分布為類PDO型,以及前期華南、東北、西北地區(qū)土壤濕度異常;交叉檢驗結果表明基于前冬預測因子的極端氣溫預測模型技巧高于春季,基于土壤濕度的極端氣溫預測模型技巧高于海表面溫度;獨立樣本檢驗表明基于前期土壤濕度、海表面溫度的ECC模型對中國東部夏季極端氣溫有一定的預測能力,可以在夏季極端氣溫的預測業(yè)務中考慮前期土壤濕度及海表面溫度的影響。(3)合成分析結果顯示江淮、緬甸附近、中國東北、印度北部區(qū)域春季SM異常與中國東北、江淮地區(qū)的500hPa位勢高度、200hPa緯向風異常存在聯(lián)系。東北地區(qū)夏季極端高溫影響因子為500hPa位勢高度異常、華北至貝湖附近200hPa緯向風異常;江淮地區(qū)夏季極端高溫的影響因子除500hPa位勢高度異常外,200hPa緯向風異常也是重要影響因子。
[Abstract]:China is one of the countries most seriously affected by meteorological disasters in the world. It is of great significance to carry out research on various kinds of extreme climate and forecast extreme climate. The extreme temperature in summer is a common meteorological disaster in China.The main factors of summer temperature prediction in China are sea surface temperature and circulation factor.Whether soil moisture can improve the prediction accuracy of summer extreme temperature in China needs further study.Firstly, based on the soil moisture observation data of 778 agricultural meteorological stations in China from 1992 to 2010, the paper analyzes the soil moisture reanalysis data of ERAIP JRA55, NCEP-DOER2 and 20CR, through four parameters: average difference, correlation coefficient, standard deviation of difference and ratio of standard deviation.Using Brunke ranking method and EOF analysis, the applicability of four sets of soil moisture reanalysis data in the east of northwest China-North China-Jianghuai region was analyzed. Secondly, the daily maximum and lowest temperature data of 587 stations in China were used.The monthly average ERA_interim soil moisture reanalysis data and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature data are used to define the extreme temperature index.By using the canonical correlation analysis of deformation (BP-CCAA) and the method of collective canonical correlation analysis, the linear relationship between the extreme temperature in summer from 1979 to 2009 and the soil moisture and sea surface temperature in China from 1979 to 2009 was analyzed.The prediction model of extreme temperature in summer in China was established, and the effect of independent sample test was evaluated. Finally, the effects of soil moisture anomaly in spring on Northeast China were analyzed by synthetic analysis and correlation analysis.The possible mechanism of the effect of extreme high temperature in summer in Jianghuai area is analyzed. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) the average deviation between JRA55 data and observational data in different seasons is 鹵0.08m3.m-3 in spring.In summer, the JRA55 soil moisture in the eastern part of Northwest China is smaller than that of the observed data. The average deviation in the southern part of North China and the Jianghuai area is less than that in the east part of northwest China and the northern part of North China.In terms of interannual variation, the ERA_interim data in each season are most close to the observed data, and can steadily reproduce the soil moisture and dry change trend in the eastern part of the northwest, North China and Jianghuai areas, reflecting the important drought and flood years.As a whole, the spatial distribution of the early sea surface temperature anomalies in the four sets of reanalysis data, which are close to JRA55 / NCEP-DOER2 data, followed by JRA55 / NCEP-DOER2 data and China's summer extreme temperatures, is similar to that of PDO type, as well as that of South China and Northeast China.The results of cross test showed that the forecasting skill of extreme temperature model based on pre-winter forecast factor was higher than that of spring, and that of extreme temperature model based on soil moisture was higher than that of sea surface temperature.Independent sample tests show that the ECC model based on soil moisture and sea surface temperature has a certain ability to predict extreme summer temperatures in eastern China.The synthetic analysis results show that the SM anomaly in spring and Northeast China in the area near Myanmar, northeast China and northern India can be taken into account in summer extreme temperature prediction.The 500hPa geopotential height of 200 HPA zonal wind anomaly exists in the Jianghuai area.The influence factors of extreme high temperature in summer in Northeast China are 500hPa geopotential height anomaly and 200hPa zonal wind anomaly in the area from North China to Beihu Lake, and the influence factor of extreme high temperature in summer in Jianghuai area is not only 500hPa geopotential height anomaly but also 200hPa zonal wind anomaly.
【學位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S152.71

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