本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)干旱　切入點(diǎn)：演化規(guī)律　出處：《太原理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：干旱是人類面臨的主要自然災(zāi)害，農(nóng)業(yè)干旱是對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)影響最為嚴(yán)重的災(zāi)害之一，每年因干旱給農(nóng)業(yè)帶來的危害和損失遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了其它氣象災(zāi)害，給我國糧食安全和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定帶來了極其嚴(yán)重的危害。 山西省屬于我國的干旱半干旱地區(qū)，有“十年九旱”之稱。據(jù)史記載，干旱給山西省的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)造成很大困難。每年因干旱災(zāi)害帶來的農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失嚴(yán)重。及時(shí)、準(zhǔn)確地監(jiān)測(cè)山西省的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱時(shí)空演化規(guī)律，可為制定防旱、抗旱、減旱措施和對(duì)策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)，為我省糧食安全提供技術(shù)保障。遙感技術(shù)因其具有實(shí)時(shí)、動(dòng)態(tài)、快速、覆蓋范圍廣等特點(diǎn)，克服了傳統(tǒng)監(jiān)測(cè)方法的缺點(diǎn)，被廣泛應(yīng)用干旱監(jiān)測(cè)中。 本論文在系統(tǒng)分析現(xiàn)有農(nóng)業(yè)干旱遙感監(jiān)測(cè)方法和模型優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上，選用MODIS地表溫度(MOD11A2)和植被指數(shù)(MOD13A2)數(shù)據(jù)，通過建立Ts-EVI特征空間，獲得了2001-2014年山西省的溫度植被旱情指數(shù)(TVDI)，建立了山西省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱監(jiān)測(cè)模型；通過分析TVDI與降水量、EVI、Ts的相關(guān)關(guān)系，驗(yàn)證了TVDI模型的可靠性，并利用其監(jiān)測(cè)得到2001-2014年山西省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱旱情信息。在此基礎(chǔ)上，分別以月際和年際為尺度，分析了農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的時(shí)間變化特征；根據(jù)TVDI分布，得到全省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱在空間上的演變特征，最后得到2001-2014年山西省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的時(shí)空分布及演化規(guī)律。 通過研究取得了以下主要結(jié)論： (1)在Ts-EVI特征空間模型中，每年12個(gè)月的干邊擬合方程斜率大部分為負(fù)值，而濕邊擬合方程斜率基本上是5-9月份為負(fù)值，其余月份為正值。 (2)溫度植被旱情指數(shù)(TVDI)與降水量距平和增強(qiáng)型植被指數(shù)(EVI)均呈負(fù)相關(guān)性，與地表溫度(Ts)呈正相關(guān)。 (3)山西省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱空間分布狀況：全省大部分處于干旱狀況，整體上中南部及南部地區(qū)旱情略嚴(yán)重，山區(qū)好于盆地。全省較濕潤(rùn)的區(qū)域主要位于西部的呂梁山，東北部的恒山和五臺(tái)山等山區(qū)；而全省旱情較嚴(yán)重的區(qū)域主要有北部的大同盆地、中部的太原盆地、東部陽泉市附近、東南部的長(zhǎng)治盆地，以及西南部的臨汾盆地和運(yùn)城盆地等盆地，尤其是運(yùn)城、臨汾屬于重旱。 (4)山西省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱時(shí)間變化規(guī)律：月際方面，旱情在1-3月份加重，3-7月份減輕，7-12月份又加重，旱情最嚴(yán)重的月份為3月，旱情最輕的月份是7月；季節(jié)方面，，旱情重緩程度為是春季冬季秋季夏季；年際方面，山西省的干旱情況整體有所減緩。尤其是從2003-2007年這五年，旱情減緩趨勢(shì)非常顯著(TVDI降低0.03466/5a)。
[Abstract]:Drought is the main natural disaster faced by mankind. Agricultural drought is one of the most serious disasters affecting agricultural production. The damage and loss caused by drought to agriculture are far greater than other meteorological disasters every year.To our country food security and social stability brought extremely serious harm.Shanxi Province belongs to the arid and semi-arid area of our country.According to historical records, drought caused great difficulties to agricultural production in Shanxi Province.Agricultural economic losses caused by drought disasters are serious every year.Timely and accurate monitoring of the temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province can provide scientific basis for the formulation of drought prevention, drought resistance, drought mitigation measures and countermeasures, and provide technical guarantee for grain security in our province.Remote sensing technology has been widely used in drought monitoring because of its real-time, dynamic, fast and wide coverage, which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional monitoring methods.On the basis of analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the existing methods and models of agricultural drought remote sensing monitoring, this paper selects the data of MODIS surface temperature and vegetation index MOD13A2, and establishes the Ts-EVI feature space by using the data of MOD11A2) and vegetation index (MOD13A2).The temperature vegetation drought index of Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2014 is obtained, and the agricultural drought monitoring model of Shanxi Province is established, and the reliability of the TVDI model is verified by analyzing the correlation between TVDI and precipitation EVITs.The information of agricultural drought and drought in Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2014 was obtained by its monitoring.On this basis, the temporal variation characteristics of agricultural drought are analyzed on the scale of intermonth and interannual, and the spatial evolution characteristics of agricultural drought in the whole province are obtained according to the distribution of TVDI.Finally, the temporal and spatial distribution and evolution of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2014 are obtained.The main conclusions are as follows:1) in the Ts-EVI feature space model, the slope of the dry edge fitting equation is mostly negative in 12 months of each year, while the slope of the wet edge fitting equation is negative in May and September, and the other months are positive.(2) there was a negative correlation between temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) and precipitation distance and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and a positive correlation with surface temperature (Ts).(3) the spatial distribution of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province: most of the province is in drought condition, the drought situation is a little serious in the central and southern part of the province as a whole, and the mountain area is better than the basin.The wetter regions of the province are mainly located in the western Luliangshan, the northeast Hengshan and Wutai mountains, while the more severe drought areas in the province are mainly the Datong basin in the north, the Taiyuan basin in the middle, and the Yangquan city in the east.The Changzhi basin in the southeast, and the Linfen basin and Yuncheng basin in the southwest, especially Yuncheng basin, belong to severe drought.(4) the temporal variation of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province: in terms of intermonthly drought, the drought increased in March and July, and then increased again in July and July. The most severe month of drought was March, and the lightest month of drought was July.The degree of drought relief is spring, winter, autumn and summer, and the drought situation in Shanxi Province as a whole has slowed down.Especially in the five years from 2003 to 2007, the trend of drought deceleration was very significant, and TVDI decreased by 0.03466 / 5a.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：太原理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：S127;S423

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