本文選題：云模型　切入點(diǎn)：梯形云　出處：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)氣象》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：選取黃河故道碭山酥梨代表性產(chǎn)地碭山縣為樣點(diǎn),利用梨樹(shù)物候期長(zhǎng)期定位觀測(cè)資料和氣象監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),基于云模型理論建立了光、溫、水氣候適宜度。采用加權(quán)綜合法和幾何平均法,確定不同物候期和年際氣候適宜度。結(jié)果表明,日照適宜度可由左半云,氣溫與降水適宜度可由梯形云來(lái)刻畫。綜合氣候適宜度與梨果實(shí)際單產(chǎn)、氣候產(chǎn)量和單株產(chǎn)量的相關(guān)系數(shù)分別為0.4452(P0.05)、0.3734和0.5620(P0.01)。1961-2015年,碭山酥梨氣候適宜度變化趨勢(shì)不明顯,但1961-1989年和1990-2010年分別為氣候適宜度偏高與偏低時(shí)段,1987年為氣候適宜度累計(jì)距平最大年份。研究期間,氣溫適宜度呈極顯著增加趨勢(shì),每10a約增加0.0274。日照與降水適宜度無(wú)明顯變化趨勢(shì),降水適宜度平均值比日照和氣溫適宜度低,且變異系數(shù)是日照和氣溫適宜度變異系數(shù)的4倍。各物候期氣候適宜度未呈現(xiàn)趨勢(shì)性變化,但萌芽期和花期的氣候適宜度偏低,在0.50~0.53,且變異系數(shù)較大,在45.0~57.0。其它物候期氣候適宜度和變異系數(shù)相對(duì)偏小。在氣候變化背景下,氣溫升高對(duì)梨果生長(zhǎng)有利,碭山酥梨生產(chǎn)中應(yīng)加強(qiáng)萌芽-花期的管理,以增強(qiáng)梨樹(shù)的氣候適宜性。
[Abstract]:Selection of the old course of the Yellow River Dangshan pear representative place in Dangshan County as the sample, using the tree phenology of long-term observation data and meteorological monitoring data, cloud model is established based on the theory of light, temperature, water and climate suitability. Using the weighted method and geometric mean method to determine the different period and interannual climate suitability. The results showed that and sunshine suitability degree by the left half cloud, air temperature and precipitation suitability by trapezium cloud to describe the actual yield of pear. And suitable climate, the correlation coefficient of climate yield and yield per plant were 0.4452, 0.3734 and 0.5620 (P0.05) (P0.01).1961-2015 years, pear climate suitability change trend is not obvious in Dangshan but, 1961-1989 years and 1990-2010 years respectively for high and low periods of climate suitability, climate suitability for 1987 cumulative anomaly maximum year. During the study period, the temperature suitability degree was significantly increased, each about 10A The increase of 0.0274. sunshine and precipitation suitability has no obvious change trend, the precipitation suitability average suitability is lower than the sunshine and temperature, and the coefficient of variation is 4 times for sunshine and temperature coefficient of variation. The phenological period of climate suitability is not a trend of change, but the bud and florescence climate suitability in low. 0.50~0.53, and the coefficient of variation is larger in 45.0~57.0. other phenology climate suitability and the coefficient of variation is relatively small. Under the background of climate change, temperature is favorable to the growth of pear, strengthen the bud flowering management of Dangshan pear production, in order to enhance the climate suitability of pear trees.

【作者單位】： 安徽省宿州市氣象局;安徽省合肥市氣象局;
【基金】：安徽省氣象科技發(fā)展基金項(xiàng)目(KM201607;KM201605)
【分類號(hào)】：S162.55;S661.2

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本文編號(hào)：1624926