本文選題：生態(tài)足跡　切入點(diǎn)：生態(tài)承載力　出處：《中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：農(nóng)林業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展是可持續(xù)發(fā)展概念和農(nóng)村領(lǐng)域發(fā)展的延伸,同時(shí)農(nóng)林業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展是世界性的重要研究。湖南省是全國的農(nóng)林業(yè)大省,湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)的發(fā)展與環(huán)境資源的關(guān)系極為密切。由于對(duì)農(nóng)林業(yè)資源的不合理利用,湖南省出現(xiàn)霧霾、農(nóng)用地膜引起的土壤保水保肥能力下降、化肥的不合理使用引起的面源污染等。因此,湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究是實(shí)現(xiàn)湖南省可持續(xù)發(fā)展政策方針的根本保證,對(duì)湖南省生態(tài)環(huán)境的保護(hù)具有重大的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文通過生態(tài)足跡模型的方法,將湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)2004年至2012年主要消耗的物質(zhì)資源總量和各地類中消耗的物質(zhì)資源實(shí)際面積量化,得到生態(tài)足跡和生態(tài)承載力的生物生產(chǎn)面積,并得到生態(tài)足跡、生態(tài)承載力以及生態(tài)赤字隨年份變化的動(dòng)態(tài)特征,定量地判斷湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)發(fā)展是否可持續(xù),并對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析討論,以及對(duì)未來湖南省農(nóng)林可持續(xù)性發(fā)展進(jìn)行預(yù)測,提出改善措施與建設(shè)性意見。結(jié)果表明：(1)2004年至2012年,湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)生態(tài)足跡結(jié)構(gòu)中,農(nóng)業(yè)耕地類型占比例高達(dá)89.75%～93.87%,屬于林地類型只占6.13%～10.25%。(2)2004年開始到2012年湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)的人均生態(tài)足跡整體呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,從2004年的0.77hm2上升至2012年的0.8814hm2,增幅為14.47%。(3)2004年至2012年間的農(nóng)林業(yè)整體的人均生態(tài)承載力呈現(xiàn)小幅上升趨勢,從2004年的0.7177hm2上升到了2012年的0.7271hm2,上升的幅度為1.31%。(4)在2004年至2012年間湖南省的農(nóng)林業(yè)人均生態(tài)足跡和人均生態(tài)承載力均呈上升趨勢時(shí),從人均生態(tài)足跡和人均生態(tài)承載力的基數(shù)的對(duì)比和變化速率的對(duì)比分析,整個(gè)湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)的生態(tài)赤字從2004年0.0523hm2上升至2012年的0.1543hm2。(5)SPSS17.0回歸分析得到人均生態(tài)足跡、人均生態(tài)承載力以及生態(tài)赤字的曲線估計(jì),模型表明2016年至2026年湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)的生態(tài)赤字從0.195hm2逐漸擴(kuò)大至0.295hm2。結(jié)論表明：由于湖南省耕地和林地被人為直接或者間接的破壞,在發(fā)展模式穩(wěn)定不變的情況下未來10年內(nèi)湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)的人均生態(tài)足跡和人均生態(tài)承載力之間存在相當(dāng)嚴(yán)重的矛盾,湖南省農(nóng)林業(yè)的供需量將處于不平衡狀態(tài),生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化加重,區(qū)域發(fā)展模式正處于一種不可持續(xù)發(fā)展模式。
[Abstract]:The sustainable development of agriculture and forestry is an extension of the concept of sustainable development and the development of rural areas. At the same time, the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry is an important research in the world. The development of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is closely related to the environmental resources. As a result of irrational utilization of agricultural and forestry resources, haze appears in Hunan Province, and the ability of soil moisture and fertilizer conservation caused by agricultural mulching film decreases. Therefore, the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is the fundamental guarantee to realize the policy of sustainable development of Hunan Province. It is of great practical significance to protect the ecological environment of Hunan Province. Through the method of ecological footprint model, this paper quantifies the total amount of material resources consumed by agriculture and forestry from 2004 to 2012 and the actual area of material resources consumed in various categories in Hunan Province. The biological production area of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity is obtained, and the dynamic characteristics of ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit over time are obtained, and the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is quantitatively judged. The results are analyzed and discussed, and the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is forecasted. The improvement measures and constructive suggestions are put forward. The results show that from 2004 to 2012, the ecological footprint of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is in the structure of ecological footprint of agriculture and forestry. The proportion of agricultural cultivated land type is as high as 89.75% and 93.87%, and that of forest land type is only 6.13% 10.25%.) from 2004 to 2012, the per capita ecological footprint of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province as a whole showed an upward trend. From 0.77 hm ~ 2 in 2004 to 0.8814 hm ~ 2 in 2012, the increase was 14.47%. The ecological carrying capacity of agriculture and forestry as a whole increased slightly from 2004 to 2012. From 0.7177 hm ~ 2 in 2004 to 0.7271 hm ~ (2) in 2012, the range of increase was 1.31 cm ~ (-1). During 2004 to 2012, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of agriculture and forestry per capita in Hunan Province showed an increasing trend. Based on the comparison of ecological footprint per capita and the base of ecological carrying capacity per capita and the comparative analysis of change rate, the ecological deficit of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province increased from 0.0523 hm ~ 2 on 2004 to 0.1543 hm ~ 2 路m ~ (5) SPSS 17.0 regression analysis on 2012, and the ecological footprint per capita was obtained. From 2016 to 2026, the ecological deficit of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province gradually expanded from 0.195 hm ~ 2 to 0.295 hm ~ 2. The conclusion is that the cultivated land and forest land in Hunan Province were destroyed directly or indirectly. There is a serious contradiction between the ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province in the next 10 years, and the supply and demand of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province will be in an unbalanced state. The deterioration of ecological environment is aggravated, and the regional development model is in an unsustainable development mode.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F323.22;X22

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