本文選題：武漢城市圈　切入點：耕地　出處：《武漢大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：耕地是地球上人類生活所需的必不可少的基本資源,但進入21世紀之后,人口不斷增加,耕地逐漸減少,不管是從近期我國工農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對糧食的需要,還是從保證國家經(jīng)濟安全的長遠戰(zhàn)略目標來看,我們都必須合理利用有限的耕地資源。黨中央、國務院素來注重耕地的保護工作,把"十分珍惜、合理利用土地和切實保護耕地"確立為我國的基本國策之一,以立法的形式正式確認了土地基本國策的法律位置。本文主要借助中國科學院資源環(huán)境科學數(shù)據(jù)中心提供的中國1:10萬比例尺土地利用現(xiàn)狀遙感監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)庫,以1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年五個時期的Landsat TM/ETM遙感影像為主要的數(shù)據(jù)來源,對武漢城市圈耕地的時空分布及演變進行深入分析,挖掘耕地變化驅(qū)動力,并基于地理加權回歸(GWR)及空間數(shù)據(jù)場模型(SDF)對傳統(tǒng)的元胞自動機(CA)模型進行改進,構建了耕地布局模擬模型GWRCA-SDF,對武漢城市圈內(nèi)各個縣域的耕地資源按照自身的資源稟賦以及社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平進行有差異的分配,以保證糧食安全以及建設用地擴張的雙重需要。本文主要結果和結論如下:(1)在1995年到2015年間,武漢城市圈耕地總量總體呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢,20年內(nèi)耕地減少總量為230707.08 hm2,其中變化數(shù)量最大的為2005-2010年間,耕地面積減少104626hm2,變化強度高達3.55%;1995-2015年間,武漢城市圈耕地減少中水田減少量為旱地的2倍多;武漢城市圈可開墾及可復墾的土地總量為83000.98 hm2,占湖北省可開墾及可復墾土地總量的42.40%。(2)武漢城市圈9市耕地變化強度最大的時期集中在2005-2010年、2010-2015年兩個時間段,在2005-2010年間黃岡市、黃石市、潛江市、武漢市、仙桃市、咸寧市和孝感市耕地變化強度達四個時間段內(nèi)最大,鄂州市、天門市在2010-2015年耕地變化強度為四個時間段內(nèi)最大。土地利用結構信息熵,可以表示區(qū)域不同類型用地比例的均衡程度或者有序程度,其值越大說明土地利用系統(tǒng)就越無序,相反,值越小則表示土地利用結構均質(zhì)性越高,武漢城市圈土地利用結構信息熵指數(shù)在1995-2015年呈緩慢增加趨勢,城市圈城市中信息熵指數(shù)高于平均值的市有黃石市和鄂州市,其他城市信息熵指數(shù)低于城市圈平均水平,其中潛江市和天門市顯著低于平均水平。1995-2015年,武漢市主城區(qū)和黃石市耕地年均變化速率最快,并呈現(xiàn)由城市圈中部向邊緣變化速率逐漸降低趨勢,在城市圈東部邊緣耕地年均變化速率最慢,西部應城市也相對較慢。武漢城市圈各縣耕地的變化程度值呈現(xiàn)中部和西部邊緣耕地利用程度高向周圍遞減的趨勢。(3)在景觀總體構型與變化方面,在1995-2015年間蔓延度指數(shù)(CONTAG)從42.7073降低至38.6284,聚集度指數(shù)(AI)由69.744降低至67.2128,說明城市圈景觀整體異質(zhì)性增加;散布與并列指數(shù)(IJI)由61.7446增至64.0422,說明城市圈景觀受自然影響制約呈變?nèi)踮厔?Shannon多樣性指數(shù)(SHDI)和Shannon均勻度指數(shù)(SHEI)均不斷增加則進一步驗證了優(yōu)勢景觀類型的優(yōu)勢度在逐漸降低,同時景觀的空間異質(zhì)性和破碎度反而逐漸趨高。耕地景觀指數(shù)方面,斑塊個數(shù)(NP)和斑塊密度(PD)均呈增加趨勢,在20年內(nèi)兩指數(shù)的數(shù)值分別增加10.16%和10.31%,說明武漢城市圈耕地的破碎化程度在不斷增加;同時最大斑塊指數(shù)(LPI)從35.0966減少至32.2399,說明耕地景觀受最大耕地斑塊的影響在減弱,優(yōu)勢斑塊優(yōu)勢度降低;邊界密度(ED)增加率為5.64%,說明耕地斑塊復雜度趨于增加,耕地景觀不穩(wěn)定性增加;AI從75.6252下降到72.1154,降低率為4.64%,說明雖然耕地景觀布局相對整體景觀布局而言更為聚集,但是這種聚集程度卻在不斷下降。(4)針對現(xiàn)有的以元胞自動機為基礎的土地利用優(yōu)化模型中存在的上述不足,本文提出了基于地理加權回歸(GWR)與元胞自動機(CA)及空間數(shù)據(jù)場模型(SDF)相結合的土地利用協(xié)同配置模型GWRCA-SDF,并對武漢"1+8"城市圈內(nèi)各個縣域的耕地利用布局進行協(xié)同優(yōu)化布局模擬。模擬結果顯示,相對傳統(tǒng)元胞自動機模型(Traditional-CA)模擬結果,GWRCA-SDF可以根據(jù)區(qū)域的資源稟賦,社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展條件差異對耕地資源進行合理的分配。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is the indispensable basic resources necessary to human life on earth, but after entering twenty-first Century, the continuous increase of population, cultivated land decreased gradually, whether it is from the recent economic development of our country agriculture for food, or from the guarantee of national economic security's long-term strategic goal, we must make rational use of limited land resources. The Party Central Committee, the State Council has always been focusing on the protection of cultivated land, the "treasure, the rational use of land and to protect arable land" was established as one of China's basic national policy, in the form of legislation officially confirmed the legal position of the basic national policy of land. This paper mainly by providing China Academy of Sciences Data Center for resources and Environmental Sciences China 000 1:10 the scale of land use status monitoring database, in 1995, 2000, 2005, the Landsat TM/ETM remote sensing images in 2010 and 2015 five period as the main The source of the data, and the evolution of the temporal and spatial distribution of cultivated land in Wuhan city circle in-depth analysis, mining and driving forces of cultivated land change, and based on the geographical weighted regression (GWR) and spatial data model (SDF) to the traditional cellular automaton (CA) model is improved, the layout of arable land to build the simulation model of GWRCA-SDF, there are differences in the distribution of the cultivated land resources in Wuhan city circle in each county were in accordance with their own natural resources and social economic development level, to ensure the food security and the double expansion of construction land. The main results and conclusions are as follows: (1) during the period from 1995 to 2015, the total amount of cultivated land in Wuhan city circle showing an overall decreasing trend in 20 years. Reduce the amount of cultivated land within 230707.08 Hm2, which changes the maximum number of 2005-2010 years, the area of cultivated land reduced 104626hm2, changes in intensity of up to 3.55%; 1995-2015 years, reducing cultivated land in Wuhan city circle Less in paddy field reduction is more than 2 times the total dry land; Wuhan city circle can be reclaimed and reclamation is 83000.98 Hm2, accounting for the total land reclamation and reclamation in Hubei province 42.40%. (2) in 2005-2010 years period of cultivated land in Wuhan city circle 9 city changes the largest intensity, 2010-2015 year time period two in 2005-2010 years, Huanggang City, Huangshi City, Qianjiang City, Wuhan City, Xiantao, Xianning city and Xiaogan city cultivated land change strength of four time, Ezhou City, Tianmen in 2010-2015 years for the strength of cultivated land change in the four period. The information entropy of land use structure, can be expressed in regions of different types with the balanced degree ratio or the degree of order, the greater the value that the land use system is disordered, on the contrary, the smaller the value of that land use structure heterogeneity is high, the Wuhan city circle of land use structure information entropy index in 199 5-2015 years was a slowly increasing trend, the information entropy index of city city circle of Huangshi city and Ezhou city is higher than the average value of the city and other city information entropy index is lower than the average level of the city circle, Qianjiang city and Tianmen was significantly lower than the average level of.1995-2015 years, the main city of Wuhan city and Huangshi city land average annual change rate, and presented by the city circle to the edge of central rate gradually decreased, in the city circle of the eastern edge of the annual change rate of cultivated land should be the slowest, western city is relatively slow. The degree of change of Wuhan city circle county farmland values present in central and western edge of land use to the surrounding high degree of decreasing trend. (3) in the overall configuration and the landscape change in 1995-2015 years, the contagion index (CONTAG) decreased from 42.7073 to 38.6284, the aggregation index (AI) decreased from 69.744 to 67.2128, indicating that the overall landscape heterogeneity of city circle Increased; interspersion and juxtaposition index (IJI) increased from 61.7446 to 64.0422, the landscape city circle by natural constraints is weak trend; Shannon diversity index (SHDI) and Shannon evenness index (SHEI) increased further verify the advantages of landscape types and the dominance decreased gradually, and the landscape spatial heterogeneity and fragmentation but gradually. The farmland landscape index, the number of patches (NP) and patch density (PD) increased, numerical in 20 years two index increased 10.16% and 10.31%, indicating the degree of fragmentation of cultivated land in Wuhan city circle is increasing; at the same time, the largest patch index (LPI) reduced from 35.0966 to 32.2399, indicating that farmland landscape most affected farmland patches in less dominant patch dominance decreased; the boundary density (ED) increase rate is 5.64%, that tends to increase the complexity of cultivated land, cultivated land landscape Increased stability; AI decreased from 75.6252 to 72.1154, the decrease rate was 4.64%, indicating that although the farmland landscape layout relative overall landscape layout is more aggregation, but the aggregation degree was decreased. (4) based on the existing in the cellular automaton based land use optimization model of the above shortcomings, is proposed in this paper. Based on the geographical weighted regression (GWR) and cellular automaton (CA) and spatial data model (SDF) combined with land use coordinated allocation model GWRCA-SDF, and cultivated land of Wuhan "1+8" city circle in each county with the layout of collaborative optimization layout simulation. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional cellular automaton model (Traditional-CA) simulation results, GWRCA-SDF can according to the regional resource endowments, different conditions for economic and social development and reasonable allocation of land resources.

【學位授予單位】：武漢大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.211

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