本文關(guān)鍵詞： 紅棗 氣候變化 適生區(qū) GIS 黃土高原丘陵區(qū)　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)》2017年01期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：【目的】預(yù)估未來(lái)黃土高原丘陵區(qū)紅棗種植氣候資源與適生區(qū)空間分布的變化,為氣候變化對(duì)陜晉黃河沿岸紅棗生產(chǎn)的影響和產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。【方法】基于GIS技術(shù),利用RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放氣候情景下氣候變化預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)未來(lái)35年(2016-2050年)黃土高原丘陵區(qū)紅棗種植氣候資源和適生區(qū)空間分布的變化進(jìn)行預(yù)估,并與基準(zhǔn)期(1985-2014年)進(jìn)行對(duì)照分析。【結(jié)果】與基準(zhǔn)期相比,預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)黃土高原紅棗產(chǎn)區(qū)增溫明顯,年平均氣溫升高1℃左右;年平均降水量和紅棗脆熟-采收期降水量均有所增加,大部分地區(qū)增幅為100mm和20mm左右;紅棗花期降水量除南部地區(qū)增加較明顯外,大部地區(qū)為持平略增;黃土高原丘陵區(qū)紅棗氣候適宜種植區(qū)面積明顯減少,次適宜區(qū)面積增加,其中南部區(qū)域可能變?yōu)闅夂虿贿m宜區(qū)。【結(jié)論】陜晉黃河沿岸北部適宜區(qū)可根據(jù)地形特點(diǎn),充分挖掘氣候資源潛力,適當(dāng)擴(kuò)大適應(yīng)本地發(fā)展的制干紅棗栽植面積;中部黃河兩岸次適宜區(qū)應(yīng)及時(shí)進(jìn)行抗裂果品種改良,采取提前或推遲棗果成熟期、棗果套袋等措施減輕災(zāi)害性天氣的影響與危害;南部次適宜區(qū)應(yīng)及時(shí)進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,促進(jìn)地方特色農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:[objective] to estimate the changes of planting climate resources and spatial distribution of jujube in hilly region of Loess Plateau in the future. This paper provides a scientific basis for the influence of climate change on the production of jujube and the sustainable development of industry along the Yellow River. [methods] based on GIS technology, the predicted data of climate change under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission climate scenarios are used. The changes of planting climate resources and spatial distribution of jujube in hilly region of the Loess Plateau from 2016 to 2050 in the next 35 years were estimated and compared with those in the base period (1985-2014). [results] compared with the base period, It is estimated that the annual average temperature will increase by 1 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：1553644