本文關(guān)鍵詞： 水稻 高溫事件 高溫?zé)岷Ω怕?產(chǎn)量 RCP情景　出處：《地球科學(xué)進(jìn)展》2016年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：研究分析了RCP2.6和RCP8.5氣候情景下2021—2050年我國水稻高溫敏感期(孕穗期—乳熟期)高溫事件的變化趨勢(較基準(zhǔn)時段1961—1990年),并利用1981—2009年水稻田間觀測資料,明確了水稻高溫減產(chǎn)的主導(dǎo)因子,構(gòu)建了主導(dǎo)因子與水稻減產(chǎn)率之間的經(jīng)驗回歸關(guān)系式,在此基礎(chǔ)上預(yù)估了未來RCP2.6和RCP8.5氣候情景下我國水稻發(fā)生高溫?zé)岷Φ娘L(fēng)險變化。結(jié)果表明:1RCP2.6和RCP8.5氣候情景下2021—2050年,全國各水稻種植區(qū),水稻高溫事件均有增加趨勢,高溫日數(shù)(HSD)、高溫積溫(HDD)都呈現(xiàn)增加趨勢,高溫持續(xù)日數(shù)(CHD)有延長趨勢,其中華南雙季稻區(qū)、長江流域單季稻區(qū)和東北單季稻區(qū)的HSD和HDD的變化幅度較為明顯。2中國水稻高溫中心在1961—2000年主要集中于湖南北部,與湖北省交界處附近,2種情景下2021—2050年均出現(xiàn)了向東北方向移動的趨勢。3除東北區(qū)外,我國其余水稻種植區(qū),孕穗—乳熟階段的日最高氣溫連續(xù)3 d超過35℃以上的有效積溫HDD2是導(dǎo)致水稻減產(chǎn)的第一大要素,兩者之間具有顯著線性負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系;而東北區(qū)水稻產(chǎn)量更易受到孕穗—乳熟階段的單日日最高氣溫超過32℃的有效積溫SDD2的影響,且兩者呈現(xiàn)出顯著一元二次曲線關(guān)系。4與1961—1990年相比,2種氣候情景下2021—2050年我國水稻發(fā)生高溫?zé)岷Φ母怕试黾虞^大的地區(qū),主要集中在長江流域單季稻區(qū)的湖北和安徽的大部分地區(qū),華南雙季稻區(qū)的廣東、廣西、海南省的大部分地區(qū)以及東北單季稻區(qū)的南部。
[Abstract]:The variation trend of high-temperature events in high-temperature sensitive stage (booting stage to milk-ripening stage) of rice in China during 2021-2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios (compared with the baseline period 1961-1990) was analyzed and the field observation data of rice from 1981 to 2009 were used. The main factors of rice yield reduction at high temperature were defined, and the empirical regression relationship between the leading factors and the yield reduction rate of rice was established. On this basis, the risk changes of high temperature heat damage in rice under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in China are predicted. The results show that the high temperature events of rice in all rice growing areas in China have an increasing trend from 2021-2050 to 2021-2050 under the climate scenarios of 1% RCP 2.6 and RCP8.5. High temperature days (HSD), high temperature accumulated temperature (HDD), and high temperature duration (CHD) were all increasing, especially in South China double cropping rice region. The variation range of HSD and HDD in the single cropping rice region of the Yangtze River valley and the northeast single cropping rice region is obvious .2 the high temperature center of Chinese rice was mainly concentrated in the northern part of Hunan from 1961-2000. In the two scenarios near the border with Hubei Province, there is a trend of moving to the northeast in the year 2021-2050. 3 except for the northeast region, there are other rice growing areas in China. The effective accumulated temperature (HDD2) above 35 鈩，

本文編號：1516035