本文關(guān)鍵詞： 農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放 STIRPAT模型 影響因素 環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線 灰色預(yù)測 碳減排 白城市　出處：《東北師范大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,由于人類活動(dòng)導(dǎo)致的全球溫室效應(yīng)成為國內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界以及各國政府關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)問題。其中最主要的原因是由于人類過度使用與開發(fā)資源能源,進(jìn)而造成大氣中的二氧化碳、甲烷、氮氧化物等溫室氣體的濃度快速增加。農(nóng)業(yè)作為基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),在其快速發(fā)展的同時(shí)也帶來大量的溫室氣體排放,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)引發(fā)的碳排放已經(jīng)成為了區(qū)域碳排放的重要組成部分。本研究結(jié)合IPCC經(jīng)典碳排放計(jì)算理論,針對區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,基于《白城市統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),從農(nóng)業(yè)總體物質(zhì)投入、水稻種植、畜牧養(yǎng)殖三個(gè)方面入手,確定具體的碳源因子以及相應(yīng)的碳排放系數(shù),對白城市的農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放進(jìn)行計(jì)算,分析動(dòng)態(tài)變化過程;基于多變量非線性STIRPAT影響因素分析模型分析白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的影響因素;基于灰色預(yù)測的自然增長情景與基于低碳發(fā)展的碳約束情景的比較研究,分析白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳減排潛力,提出農(nóng)業(yè)碳減排對策,結(jié)果表明:(1)1999-2013年,白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放量的時(shí)序變化分為三個(gè)階段:低速增長階段→高速增長階段→波動(dòng)階段,整體呈現(xiàn)連續(xù)增長狀態(tài),數(shù)量由1999年236.5544萬t增加到2013年的444.6167萬t,年增長率為6.28%。農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度的時(shí)序變化總體呈現(xiàn)先升后降的狀態(tài),2008年出現(xiàn)最大值6.1921t/hm2。(2)白城市農(nóng)業(yè)物質(zhì)投入和水稻種植的碳排放量的變化態(tài)勢與增長速率基本一致。其中,化肥、水稻種植、牛養(yǎng)殖、羊養(yǎng)殖所占比例較大,而且化肥和水稻種植為其中較活躍的增長因素。2003-2013年,化肥、水稻種植的碳排放量呈直線急劇增加,尤其是水稻種植的碳排放速度增加更為迅速。水稻種植為白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放量最為活躍的組成要素,2012年,其碳排放數(shù)量基本與化肥持平。空間結(jié)構(gòu)上看,鎮(zhèn)賚縣的碳排放量最大,達(dá)到130.5941萬t,所占比例是30.04%。洮南市農(nóng)業(yè)物質(zhì)投入碳排放量最大,達(dá)到56.9908萬t,所占比例為25.54%;鎮(zhèn)賚縣的水稻種植碳排放量最大,達(dá)到69.3202萬t,所占比例是48.60%;鎮(zhèn)賚縣的畜牧養(yǎng)殖碳排放量最大,達(dá)到17.4911萬t,所占比例是25.36%。(3)白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放、農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度與人均GDP的EKC分別呈二次曲線、三次曲線,均符合經(jīng)典EKC假設(shè)的倒“U”形狀,分別在2008年和2012年出現(xiàn)拐點(diǎn),之后隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)水平的增長呈現(xiàn)下降狀態(tài)。(4)構(gòu)建得到白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放多變量非線性STIRPAT影響因素分析模型。人口數(shù)、可比價(jià)格人均GDP、農(nóng)用機(jī)械總動(dòng)力、農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)率比值、農(nóng)村投資、城市化率和農(nóng)民人均純收入的影響力指數(shù)彈性系數(shù)分別為0.2605、0.0874、0.1126、-0.0766、0.0353、0.2083、0.1128。其中,人口數(shù)、城市化率、農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動(dòng)力等為白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的主要影響因素。(5)通過灰色預(yù)測模型GM(1,1)預(yù)測基準(zhǔn)情景下的2014-2020年白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放,結(jié)果顯示:自然增長條件下,2020年白城市農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放量及其強(qiáng)度將分別增加到624.4876萬t、4.8557 t/hm2。而在響應(yīng)國家政策、碳排放約束情境下,白城市的農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度減小到2020年的2.9965 t/hm2,同時(shí)農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放量將減少到385.3739萬t,當(dāng)年比自然增長條件下減排239.1137萬t,減排比例達(dá)到38.2896%。2014-2020年,共累計(jì)減排895.6889萬t。白城市是一個(gè)以農(nóng)業(yè)為基礎(chǔ)的典型地級城市,21世紀(jì)以來,白城市在農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域的科技投入與產(chǎn)業(yè)開發(fā)有了較大提高,伴著農(nóng)業(yè)物質(zhì)投入、農(nóng)業(yè)化石燃料、水稻等土地面積以及其他相關(guān)因素的持續(xù)增加,給白城市的農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展帶來了巨大動(dòng)力,但同時(shí)也帶來了不可忽視的農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放問題,未來白城市農(nóng)業(yè)方面的碳減排潛力空間巨大,但實(shí)現(xiàn)起來任重道遠(yuǎn)。為有效實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)低碳發(fā)展,將減小碳排放強(qiáng)度,控制碳排放量,白城市必須要結(jié)合自身的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,在以下5個(gè)方面采取相應(yīng)策略:(1)完善管理體制,優(yōu)化政策環(huán)境;(2)發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)減排技術(shù),調(diào)整農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu);(3)發(fā)展綠色能源,建設(shè)農(nóng)業(yè)循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì);(4)嚴(yán)格保護(hù)耕地,優(yōu)化土地利用格局;(5)統(tǒng)籌兼顧,倡導(dǎo)低碳理念,營造社會(huì)氛圍。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the academic circles at home and abroad and become the focus of attention of governments of the global warming caused by human activities. The main reason is due to the excessive use of human resource development and energy, resulting in atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, a rapid increase in concentration of nitrogen oxides and other greenhouse gases. As the basis of agricultural industry in the rapid development has also brought a lot of greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural production activities caused by carbon emissions has become an important part of regional carbon emissions. Based on the classic IPCC carbon emission calculation theory, aiming at the current situation of agricultural development area, the basic data of Baicheng statistical yearbook > based on <, input from the agricultural overall the material of rice planting, three aspects of animal husbandry, to determine the specific factors of carbon source and carbon emissions coefficient, agricultural carbon emissions in Baicheng City For the calculation, analysis of dynamic process; factor analysis of multivariable nonlinear effects of STIRPAT model based on the analysis of influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Baicheng; based on the natural growth of grey prediction scenarios and comparative study on the development of low carbon carbon constrained scenarios based on analysis of the potential of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Baicheng City, the agricultural carbon emission reduction measures, results showed that: (1) 1999-2013 years, sequential changes of agricultural carbon emissions in Baicheng city is divided into three stages: slow growth stage, rapid growth stage, fluctuation stage, overall showing a continuous growth in the state, the number increased from 2 million 365 thousand and 544 t in 1999 to 4 million 446 thousand and 167 t in 2013, the annual growth rate for the temporal variation 6.28%. agricultural carbon emission intensity shows the rise and fall, maximum 6.1921t/hm2. in 2008 (2) the change trend of carbon emissions of agricultural material inputs and rice planting in Baicheng city and the growth rate of the base 鏈竴鑷，

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